Why Sunderland are right to reject the temptation to spend big

Sunderland are not going to ‘throw millions of pounds’ at a promotion push. That much was obvious even before Tony Mowbray directly said it this week.

It’s another example of just how transparent the club have become in recent times, and that is only a good thing.

Sure, the message they deliver is not always universally popular but it’s usually clear and honest, and what more can fans really ask?

The other thing that the message always is, is consistent. That’s important. It’s important for creating and maintaining trust, and slowly but surely, that is something Sunderland have managed to rebuild.

But what is the message? Ultimately, Sunderland are saying they have the ambitions to match the fans, but they believe evolution, rather than revolution, is the way to achieve it.

"This club has laid it out, they are going to try do it incrementally, they are not going to throw millions of pounds at this and that and record a £20m loss at the end of the year,” Mowbray said. “That's not going to happen, so we have to accept that.

"There is a bigger plan, really, and I don't think the club is ready to throw the money at it that makes us record the huge losses that a lot of teams do in this league [chasing promotion].

“But of course I want to get there quickly. Not necessarily this year, but I want the team to grow and be good.”

It was interesting to watch, and interact with, fans reaction to those comments on social media. They did divide opinion, although not to the angered entrenchments we have seen in the past. Nowhere near like it.

However, there are those who don’t agree with it. That’s a reasonable point of view too. Afterall, this club has waited long enough already, and the path of evolution can offer no more guarantees than revolution can.

That said, evolution does, to me at least, represent Sunderland’s best chance.

It’s all well and good saying money should be thrown at the squad to chase promotion, but just how much money is needed?

Even if £20million was made available, what does that get you nowadays? Brentford paid close to that for one top Championship player, Keane Lewis-Potter, last summer. Marus Tavernier cost Bournemouth £12million. Djed Spence was £15million.

These are top Championship players with the kind of quality to convince Premier League clubs they can step up a level, and you’d have needed more than £40million to sign them last summer.

Even if they did get you promoted, how much more would you have to spend after promotion to be confident of staying in the Premier League? Another £100million? Maybe? Nottingham Forest spent close to £150million last summer and are just two points above the Premier League relegation zone.

Suddenly you’re looking at a £200million cash injection – before all wages and agents fees and bonuses – just to try to be competitive in the Premier League, and that’s if you can get past the newly relegated teams with their parachute payments.

I actually get very ‘been there, done that’ vibes from that idea, if I’m honest. The figures were different, but it felt like Sunderland were constantly chasing like that last time the club was in the Premier League.

Every summer felt like a fresh panic: how to get the old players out, whose amortised transfer fees were still on the books and would be for the length of their original contract regardless, and new ones in, whose transfer fees would stay on the books for years as well.

You end up only really able to do loan deals whilst making huge losses every year, and we all know where that gets you.

But honestly, revolution seems to be a thing of the past now. Clubs are starting to get a lot smarter.

It’s actually just a sign of football settling into the tier system that it has become. Since the advent of the super-clubs with huge resources, there is an acceptance that you’re always going to be a step behind.

Even if, for example, a club reached a point where they are looking at the same players as a Manchester City, there is no financial package that club could put on the table that City couldn’t easily best if they really wanted him.

Clubs have realised that it’s not how much you spend, but how well you spend it that is the real game-changer.

The perfect example is Brentford, who got to the Premier League not by spending money, but by making money. They signed Scott Hogan in 2014 for £750,000 and sold him in 2017 for £12million, then took that money and signed Ollie Watkins from Exeter for £1.8million. Three years later, Watkins was sold to Aston Villa for £28million, and they signed Ivan Toney for £10million.

That initial £750,000 investment in Hogan has resulted in £28million profit and an asset in their team right now who is worth tens of millions more – but is also helping them become a very established Premier League club.

They have repeated the process in every position – scout cleverly, sell well, buy better, repeat.

Brentford are not alone either. Another great example is Brighton, who have been masters at incrementally improving the quality of their squad. They made £125million in player sales last summer alone, and yet they sit in the top eight of the Premier League with a World Cup winner, who they signed for just £7million four years ago, in their midfield.

It’s clear that Sunderland are trying to emulate the successes of Brentford and Brighton. Both have cleverly evolved, investing modestly at the start and then reinvesting to go through the levels.

It will obviously take time, but that is nothing to fear, and there are no guarantees. However, football has become about resources, as we all know. Nottingham Forest, the club of revolution, will see their resources run out. One way or another it is inevitable, just as it was when Sunderland had a billionaire owner happy to spend heavily. External investment always does unless your own by an oil-rich state with a sketchy human rights record to wash away, of course.

Brentford and Brighton, as long as they keep doing what they are and doing it well, will not have that problem. Those clubs are generating their own resources, constantly.

That’s the path Sunderland have chosen to pursue. It’s the longer of the two, without question, but if they can get it right it will be well worth the wait. And, in the meantime, it’s proving a lot of fun to watch.

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