Mercury Vs Liberty Series Preview

Can the Mercury beat the reigning champs and win their first playoff series since 2021?

Jun 27, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) dribbls against New York Liberty guard Rebekah Gardner (7) during the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury will be taking on the New York Liberty in the first round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs. It's a tough draw, but a winnable one.

The Mercury won three of four regular season games against the Liberty this season, but in a best-of-three series, the margin of error is slim and anything can happen. One bad game or one shooting slump can send somebody home and there's very little time to make significant adjustments or implement new strategies.

As is typical of a four-five matchup, either team would feel massively disappointed to be sent packing after just one round, and they both see themselves as legitimate title contenders, though they've been heading in opposite directions lately. Let's take a look at how they match up.

Mercury guard Monique Akoa Makani (8) defends New York Liberty guard Natasha Cloud (9) at PHX Arena, Aug. 30, 2025, in Phoenix. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Current form

The Liberty started the season red-hot but struggled mightily as they dealt with injuries for much of the season, despite possessing great depth. They had lost six out of nine games before closing out the regular season on a three-game win streak, but they didn't look especially dominant even in that stretch.

The Mercury had won six straight (and eight of nine) before getting locked in to the four-seed and resting players down the stretch of their last three games, which all resulted in losses. The Mercury will be hoping that their stars (who have been healthy for a while, after missing much of the early part of the season) will be well-rested, but still in rhythm, for the postseason.

Jun 19, 2025; Brooklyn, New York, USA; New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) reacts as Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) defends during the second half at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images / John Jones-Imagn Images

The Stars

Phoenix sports three genuine All-Star caliber players right now, with Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper forming one of the most versatile trios in the W. All three are capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night, and they can all pass and rebound. Sabally led the team in scoring, with 16.3 points a night (plus 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists), while Copper was in second at 15.6, and Thomas finished in third (but averaged team-highs with 8.8 boards and 9.2 assists a game). They also have a fourth star in sixth player DeWanna Bonner, the third-leading scorer in league history, who is averaging double figures off the bench.

New York has an abundance of riches. Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart both average over 18 points per game, while Jonquel Jones, Emma Meesseman, and Natasha Cloud are all in double figures. Having Jones, a former Finals MVP, as a third option is truly wild, as is having two other former Finals MVPs (Meesseman and Stewart) in the starting lineup. When they're on, their raw firepower is unmatched.

Jun 19, 2025; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Sami Whitcomb (33) reacts during the second half against the New York Liberty at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images / John Jones-Imagn Images

The role players

Phoenix may actually hold the advantage here. While Nyara Sabally is a fine player, Leonie Fiebich is a premier Swiss Army knife, and Marine Johannes can make magic happen (or shoot her team out of a game), the Mercury have better quality depth pieces. Monique Akoa Makani is one of the league's best perimeter defenders and is a remarkably consistent three-point shooter, Sami Whitcomb can catch fire at any moment, and Natasha Mack is one of the best defensive bigs in basketball, capable of blocking shots down low or sticking with guards on switches.

Offense

The Liberty offense has dipped from their early-season levels due to injuries and issues with turnovers, and they finished fifth in the W in offensive efficiency. Still, while they may not crash the offensive glass much (dead last in OREB%), they're first in the league in true shooting percentage, and they're the second-best three-point shooting team in the league. If Stewart and Ionescu, who have shot uncharacteristically poorly from three this year, can get hot, they're even more lethal. They're also great at the foul line, and given Phoenix's foul troubles lately, they'll cannot afford to hand New York easy points.

The Mercury finished just seventh in offense, down from their early-season peak, but they're among the best in the league at scoring on the break, and they can absolutely feast if they're able to pressure the Liberty into turnovers on the other end. They're also among the best at sharing the ball, with Thomas's unselfishness setting the standard. If the Mercury can get into the paint off the dribble, they could get the open threes their offense needs to thrive.

Aug 30, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Liberty guard Marine Johannes (23) guards Phoenix Mercury guard Sami Whitcomb (33) during the second half of a game at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Defense

Phoenix gives up the second-fewest points per game in the paint in the league, and they'll need to find a way to wall off the paint against Jones, an elite interior threat, while not over-helping, which could lead to the Liberty burning them from long range. They have personnel who can match up with Stewart (likely Thomas) and Ionescu (Akoa Makani), but Jones has proven to be a handful for the Mercury this year and stopping the reigning Finals MVP will be one ofthe keys to victory.

The Liberty, while not an elite defensive unit lately, actually give up the third-lowest field goal percentage in the W and the lowest three-point percentage in the entire league. Despite their size, they actually give up the most offensive boards in the league, though, and Mack, Thomas, and Sabally could find success aggressively crashing the glass and earning extra possessions.

Mercury center Kalani Brown (21) high-fives guard Monique Akoa Makani (8) as she is introduced before their game against the New York Liberty at PHX Arena, Aug. 30, 2025, in Phoenix. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Prediction

This is a hard series to call. Phoenix took the season series 3-1, but neither team was ever really fully healthy in any of their games. Still, home court advantage matters and the X Factor will power the Mercury to a close three-game series win.

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