All Things CW: Alabama Defense Could be Primed for Another Ballhawking Season

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Ask most football coaches about something statistical from a football game and he might say something along the lines of how the numbers aren't that important, or are overrated. It's especially true in regards to sacks and completion percentage if the quarterback doesn't throw much downfield.

But not turnovers. It and third-down conversions are still the go-to factors in determining the outcome of football games (outside of touchdowns, obviously).

Nick Saban's teams at Alabama have been very good at creating turnovers.

The Crimson Tide has forced at least one in 92 of the last 100 games, dating back to the start of the 2015 season. During that stretch, Alabama has forced 163 turnovers (106 interceptions, 57 fumbles) and returned 38 of those miscues for touchdowns.

On the flip side, the offense has lost the ball 188 times in 181 games since 2009. That includes 76 interceptions in 4,833 attempts (one pick every 64 attempts) by an Alabama starting quarterbacks and 31 lost fumbles in 4,858 carries (one fumble lost every 157 carries) by the Crimson Tide’s top two running backs.

Consequently, the Crimson Tide is usually near the top of the Southeastern Conference and national team rankings for turnover margin.

Year	Fumbles-Recovered	Interceptions	Total Turnovers	Turnover Ratio +/-
2007	15-5	19	24	+4
2008	20-10	15	25	+7
2009	17-7	24	31	+19
2010	19-4	22	26	+12
2011	18-7	13	20	+8
2012	24-11	18	29	+14
2013	20-8	11	19	+2
2014	20-9	11	20	-2
2015	25-8	19	27	+10
2016	26-13	16	29	+10
2017	13-5	19	24	+14
2018	14-7	14	21	+6
2019	19-11	17	28	+18
2020	25-10	12	22	+10
2021	11-7	15	22	+9
Totals (average)	286-122 (19-8)	245 (16)	367 (24,5)	+141 (+9.4)

The most turnovers created by a Saban defense at Alabama is 31, by the 2009 national champions. Second on that list is the underrated 2016 Crimson Tide, which ran the table only to take a last-second loss to Clemson in the title game, with 29.

Alabama finished that season No. 1 in both scoring defense (13.0 points) and rushing defense (63.9 yards), just missed being No. 1 in total defense (261.8 yards), and No. 9 in passing-efficiency defense. Statistically, it was drawing comparisons to the 2011 Crimson Tide defense, which was just the second team in college football history to finish No. 1 in each of those defensive categories.

That 2016 defense included the following:

• Up front the line was loaded with Jonathan Allen (winner of the Bronko Nagurski and Lombardi awards) entering his senior year, playing alongside Dalvin Tomlinson and Da'Ron Payne. There were also a couple of freshmen on the depth chart named Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis.

• The linebackers were more than stout with Reuben Foster (Butkus Award) and Rashaan Evans in the middle, along with Shaun Dion Hamilton. The unit also included a pass-rusher with a fantastic first step, Tim Williams, along with Ryan Anderson.

• The key to the unit, though, may have have the veteran secondary. It included senior Eddie Jackson, juniors Anthony Averett and Levi Wallace, and sophomores Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marlon Humphrey and Ronnie Harrison (and don't forget Tony Brown).

The turnover total was 26 picks and 13 recovered fumbles.

What the Crimson Tide often did with them was incredibly impressive, returning 15 for touchdowns. It not only led the Football Bowl Subdivision, but was the most in a season by any FBS team in 20 years.

During one stretch, Alabama scored a non-offensive touchdown in 10 consecutive games dating from to the College Football Playoff semifinal against Michigan State on Dec. 31, 2015 to the Texas A&M game on Oct. 22, 2016. The Crimson Tide notched 14 non-offensive touchdowns during that span: four interceptions, four punt returns, five fumble recoveries and a kickoff return.

Go back and look at the 2016 personnel and then look at this year's defense.

• Alabama doesn't have an Allen-type talent in the trenches, but the veteran line is solid, and geared to shut down the run. The position group also has a lot of depth.

• The linebacker corps has the best pass-rusher in college football with Will Anderson Jr., while both Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell will be bringing a ton of heat as well. Henry To'oTo'o may not hit like Foster, but he's a strong All-SEC candidate this season.

• The secondary does have some new starters, yet it's a talented, experienced group that will give opposing quarterbacks a lot of problems. Safety Jordan Battle earned All-American recognition last year, LSU transfer Eli Ricks has the potential to be the best cornerback in the SEC, and both Kool-Aid McKinstry and DeMarcco Hellams are established, proven players, along with Malachi Moore and Brian Branch.

This is one of those years the Crimson Tide will get after the quarterback more, and dare him to try and sit back in the pocket and throw. It might lead to some more passing yards yielded, but also turnovers and big defensive plays — maybe to the point that the 2022 defense could be compared to the 2016 unit.

Saban warms up for SEC Media Days

The Crimson Tide head coach did an interview on the Always College Football podcast with Greg McElroy and spoke on some of the subjects that will be popular at SEC Media Days.

On the possible megaconference era: "I think we're going to deal with it in a greater capacity than ever before because I think megaconferences are probably here to stay. Market share, there's a lot of that involved in why we're doing what we're doing."

His biggest concern with that: "Competitive balance. The NFL—which I was involved in for eight years—every rule they have is to create competitive balance and if they could have every team go 8–8 so at the end of a season every team was playing their last game to get in the playoffs they would be ecstatic. Because how much fan interest does that create?

“We don’t have any guardrails on what we’re doing right now. We have no restrictions on who can do what. Some people are gonna be capable of doing certain things other people aren’t going to be capable. But the bottom line is we’ll lose competitive balance. Which everything we’ve always done in college football is to maintain competitive balance. Same scholarship, everyone had to play by the same rules whether it was recruiting or whatever. Right now that’s not how it is.”

• On rivalries being extinguished: “There’s a lot of tradition in conferences that will no longer exist. I think we’ve gone through that to some degree in the past, the Oklahoma/Nebraska game used to be a big game and they’ve not been in the same conference for quite some time now. But I think we’re going to deal with it a greater capacity than ever before because I think mega-conferences are probably here to stay.”

5 Things That Got our Attention This Week

1) Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on Saban: Yeah, [I have] an unbelievable amount of respect for Coach Saban and that program. Without Nick Saban, I wouldn't be sitting here today in front of y'all. I owe a great deal to him. I owe so much to him, and I will never, ever forget that he and Ms. Terry have been tremendous in my life and my wife's life and what they've done for us on and off the field, I owe them a great deal. With that being said, I can't wait to play them because I know what he puts into it. I know the work ethic, I know the discipline that he has personally. I know what he instills into his organization, into that team.

"I think ultimately that's what you try to take when you leave Alabama, because you can't try to be Nick Saban; there's only one. You have to be a Steve Sarkisian. But the discipline and commitment that he has personally to that program that then he instills into his team and into his own organization is something that you try to emulate."

2) A different way to determine conference tournament seeding: The Western Athletic Conference is changing how it will seed its postseason tournaments by introducing the WAC Résumé Seeding System, which takes into account the KenPom formula and the NETand rewards teams for playing tougher schedules. The idea behind it is to weigh the teams similar to what the postseason committees do, but based on full season play and not just conference results.

3) No lines necessary: Crimson Tide fans will have to wait a year to see them, but Amazon is set to open three new stores at Texas A&M’s Kyle Field that use the company’s checkout-free technology. Fans can insert their credit cards at the entry gate or use an Amazon One palm scanner, and walk out out with their items.

4) Alston awards: On3 reported that more than 97 percent of the student-athletes enrolled at Oregon earned an academic financial award during the 2021-22 academic year, as the Ducks paid out a total of $2.6 million. Specifically, 521 of 536 Oregon student-athletes received an Alston award, of which 381 received the maximum amount. Per SEC schools, Ole Miss spent a total of $2.31 million on academic financial awards in 2021-22.

5) Proposed baseball rule change: The NCAA Baseball Rules Committee recommended modifications to the 20-second action clock with runners on base, requiring pitchers to start the motion of throwing a pitch or making a pickoff throw when runners are on base to avoid violating the action clock. If the 20-second action clock expires without a pitch or pickoff throw being made, a ball would be added to the count. The proposed change, if approved by the NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel, would take effect next 2022-23 season.

This Year's Playoff Favorites

We always like to take a look at what the oddsmakers are saying, as they have an uncanny ability to be ahead of the prognosticators.

Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State aren't just the favorites to win the national championship, but they're huge favorites compared to the rest of the field.

Per www.BetOnline.ag, the odds of one of those three winning the title are -350 (2/7), with the field set at +225 (9/4).

The odds for each team are set at:

Alabama -300 (1/3); Any other team +200 (2/1)
Georgia +500 (5/1); Any other team -900 (1/9)
Ohio State +375 (15/4); Any other team -650 (2/13)

Tide-Bits

• Proving that there's no such thing as too-early Bracketology, ESPN's Joe Lunardi is already projecting the 2023 March Madness men's field. He has Alabama as a No. 6 seed in the South facing St. John's, and the winner advancing to play the winner of Duke vs. Iona, in Greensboro, N.C. The region looks like college basketball's version of the Group of Death (in the Wold Cup) with the top four seeds of Kentucky, reigning champion Kansas, Duke and Indiana. Michigan and Florida would be a 7 vs. 10 first-round matchup.

• When Alabama visits Texas on Sept. 10, students from both schools will participate in a special media collaboration between the schools called The Alabama-Texas Sports Media Mash-Up. For eight sports media students – four from each school – will help produce gameday coverage similar to their professional counterparts. The Alabama students selected were:

Robert Cortez, Senior/News Media
Skylar Lien, Senior/Creative Media
Jessica Stephans, Senior/Public Relations
Jason Williams, Senior/News Media

• From NFL Research, three of the 12 players who scored 96-plus speed in the Madden 22 game are now on the Dolphins alongside quarterback Tua Tagovailoa: Tyreek Hill was first at 99, with Jaylen Waddle tied for third at 97, and Raheem Mostert topping all running backs at 96. The Madden 23 ratings will be released on Monday.

• Which former Alabama wide receiver will have the most yards in the NFL this season? According to SportsBetting.ag the favorite is Jerry Jeudy, who has a new quarterback in Denver with Russell Wilson. He's followed by Amari Cooper, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. Notably not mentioned was free agent Julio Jones.

Did You Notice?

• There have been a lot of rumblings lately about Oklahoma possibly leaving the Big 12 for the SEC earlier than 2025. It's now a possibility: Big 12’s Brett Yormark Leaves Door Open on Early Texas, Oklahoma Exit

• Year 1 of NIL Brought Curveballs, Collectives and Chaos. Now What?

• Hurl, Interrupted: What Ever Happened to the Playground Spinner?

Christopher Walsh's notes column appears every week on BamaCentral.

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