All Things CW: The Fallacy Surrounding the Georgia Defense When Compared to Alabama
When Alabama faced Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the popular narrative was that it was a showdown between the Crimson Tide offense and Bulldogs defense, which might have once-in-a-generation talent.
We all know what happened. Sophomore quarterback Bryce Young locked down the Heisman Trophy and Alabama won 42-24.
Round II in the National Championship Game is being hailed as more of the same, but it's time to declare that narrative as false in one important respect.
Georgia's defense is still very, very good. Outstanding even.
But the difference between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide on that side of the ball is a lot smaller than most realize.
Last week in the semifinals, Alabama kept Cincinnati out of the end zone during a 27-6 victory in the Cotton Bowl. Georgia gave up one touchdown but with a commanding lead en route to the 34-11 win against Michigan in the Orange Bowl.
Did you see anything that led you to believe that the Wolverines' offense was much better than the Bearcats?
Let's turn to the Tale of the Tape, and the four big statistical categories nationally on defense:
Category, Alabama, Georgia
- Total defense: Sixth 253.1; Second 299.8
- Scoring defense: 13th 19.21; First 9.64
- Rushing defense: fourth 82.1; third 81.4
- Pass-efficiency defense: 54th 130.75; first 101.43
Georgia faced ranked opponents this season, but just three teams in the top 25 of total offense (Alabama, Florida and Tennessee). Those teams hung 65 points on the Bulldogs including.
Alabama also faced seven ranked opponents, but had a tougher schedule as LSU and Texas A&M were unranked at the time. It saw five top-25 offenses as well.
Otherwise, the only difference is in pass-efficiency, and Alabama has had fewer breakdowns as the season progressed, so that may be a little misleading.
The same can be found in red-zone defense. Georgia has yielded three touchdowns, five passing touchdowns and eight field goals. Alabama gave up 7 and 13, respectively, to go with 11 field goals.
Statistically, the Bulldogs have been better overall, from start to finish, but a month ago the difference was much greater.
Now add on another tier of defensive team stats:
Category, Alabama, Georgia
- Third-down conversions: Seventh (.310); 31st (.351)
- Turnovers gained: T36th 20; T44th 19
- Sacks: Third (3.71); T10th (3.21)
- Tackles for a loss: Third (8.0); 43rd (6.3)
Alabama has an edge across the board on what we'll call clutch plays.
Georgia's defense is still outstanding, but the Crimson Tide's defense is better than anyone is giving it credit for.
Tracking the Transfers
Even though Alabama didn't make a lot of additions through the transfer portal last year, it's easy to say that the Crimson Tide "won" what's now being described as a new version free agency as it picked up two key starters who have helped it return to the National Championship Game.
Just imagine where the Crimson Tide may be this season without linebacker Henry To'oTo'o and Jameson Williams.
"It's honestly a blessing to be able to be part of something so special," To'oTo'o said.
Last week, the biggest storyline going into the Cotton Bowl was Alabama facing former Crimson Tide running back Jerome Ford at Cincinnati.
For the title game it may be whether Williams can post comparable numbers to when he faced Georgia in the SEC Championship Game roughly a month ago: Seven catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns.
It got us thinking about how other transfers have done this season:
New Additions
RB Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech
CB Eli Ricks from LSU
Going ...
DB Marcus Banks to Mississippi State
LB Jackson Britton
OL Pierce Quick to Georgia Tech
WR Xavier Williams to Utah State
2021 Departures
K Joseph Bulovas to Vanderbilt: Made 14 of 19 field goals. Hit a 31-yard game-winning field goal against Connecticut. Had six kickoffs, with three touchbacks.
LB Ben Davis to Texas : Played in 11 games. Had 16 tackles, including 4.5 for a loss and 2.5 sacks. Had a hurry, a fumble recover and a forced fumble.
LB Kevin Harris to Georgia Tech: Played in 12 games, had six tackles.
LB Ale Kaho to UCLA: Appeared in 11 games with two starts. Blocked a punt that was recovered for a touchdown against Hawaii. Had seven tackles against Utah, six against Oregon. Finished with 32 tackles, including 5.5 for a loss and three for a loss. Broke up a pass and had a forced fumble.
LB King Mwikuta: Did not play.
RB Keilan Robinson to Texas: Had 45 carries for 322 yards and three touchdowns; seven catches for 57 yards. Had one kick return.
S Eddie Smith to Illinois: Played in 10 games and made four tackles.
DT Ismail Sopsher to USC: Missed 2021 spring practice with a leg injury. Didn't play in 2021.
CB Brandon Turnage to Tennessee: Stepped in for injured starter Theo Jackson and made five tackles at Alabama. Made first-career start vs. South Carolina, had a game-high 14 tackles including two for a loss. Was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week. Played in nine games, had 22 total tackles.
CB Ronald Williams to Michigan State: Played 13 games, had 39 tackles with eight passes broken up and an interception. Also had two tackles for a loss and a sack, and a forced fumble.
2020 Departures
(TE Giles Amos to Arkansas State: No longer on roster. Was a graduate transfer.)
LB Markail Benton to Jacksonville State: Played in 11 games and led 69 tackles, including 6.5 for a loss and 2.5 sacks. Also had one interception, a pass broken up and two quarterback hurries.
Scooby Carter to Mississippi Gulf Coast CC: Committed to Arkansas State last year, did not play in 2021.
RB Jerome Ford to Cincinnati: As a junior, led Bearcats with 1,319 rushing yards, 19 rushing touchdowns and 20 total touchdowns. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Also had 220 receiving yards on 21 catches. Named to the 2021 All-AAC First Team and AAC Championship Game MVP honors.
(WR Mac Hereford to Vanderbilt as a graduate transfer, is out of football)
CB Nigel Knott to East Carolina: Left program before 2021 season.
T Scott Lashley to Mississippi State: Started all 12 games at right tackle. He did not play in the Liberty Bowl loss.
WR Tyrell Shavers to Mississippi State: Played 2021 at San Diego State: Played in 13 games as a junior, had 18 catches for 213 yards and two touchdowns.
QB Taulia Tagovailoa to Maryland: As a redshirt sophomore set program single-season records in passing yards (3,860), completions (328), completion percentage (69.2 percent), passing touchdowns (26) and 300-yard passing games (seven).
WR Chadarius Townsend to Texas Tech: Played in five games, had 10 carries for 65 yards. Returned 11 kicks for 216 yards (19.6 average). Suffered broken scapula as a redshirt junior.
If anything, the Alabama sales pitch only got easier with the success of To'oTo'o and Williams, who has 75 catches for 1,507 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
The former Ohio State player said he was only told coming in "that I would be an excellent add-on to the offense, and as the season went on, we kind of all seen how I was used in the offense and everything.
"Complimented me, complimented the other receivers. We all just came together and we had a great offense this year."
No Love in Ohio?
Speaking of the state of Ohio, Nick Saban has probably used up his good will there (and we mean that in a purely fun way).
Yes, he graduated from Kent State in 1973 with a bachelor’s degree in business, and earned a master’s degree in sports administration in 1975. He was an assistant coach at Ohio State in 1980-81, the head coach at Toledo in 1990, and Bill Belichick's defensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns from 1991-94.
The rest of the time he's been all but tortured the state in football.
When Saban took over at Toledo in 1990, his team went 4-0 against various in-state opponents. The only Division I programs that probably don't have an issue with him are Akron and Toledo, as they've never faced him as a head coach.
Saban's signature win at Michigan State was against No. 1 Ohio State in 1998. He has a winning record against the Buckeyes including last year's dominating win in the National Championship Game.
He's also drawn a lot of talent out of the state, having recruited there extensively over the years, mostly northeast Ohio, around Akron, Canton, Youngstown and Cleveland.
"There was a time when we lived in Ohio and spent so much time there that we sort of felt like we were more residents of Ohio than we were of West Virginia, in terms of where we were from," he said. "And certainly, professionally, if not true personally, a lot of things that helped me grow and develop as a coach happened in Ohio with all the experiences that we had. Don James was an instrumental part in getting me started in coaching. And certainly learned a tremendous amount from him and Earle Bruce and Bill Belichick.
"So the experiences that I had as a coach in Ohio really helped mold me philosophically into a lot of things that we believe in and that we try to implement in our program."
Changing Odds
As of Thursday, the line on SI Sportsbook had gone up to Georgia -3, with an over/under of 51.5.
Here's the interesting thing, the MVP almost always goes to the key player from the winning team. According to BetOnline.com, Young is the favorite at 9/4, ahead of Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (15/4), Williams (7/1), Will Anderson Jr. (7/1) and Brian Robinson Jr. (15/2). Four of the top five are Crimson Tide players.
Something similar can be found with the odds for the first touchdown.
Among teams, Georgia has the best odds at 7/4. Among individuals, Robinson is the frontrunner at 6/1, with Williams also 6/1.
Some other items of note:
Highest scoring quarter: Second (7/4)
Margin of victory: Georgia by one to six points (7/2)
First half margin: Georgia by 13 points or more (7/2), ahead of Georgia one to six (17/4) and seven to 12 (17/4).
Remember, in the SEC Championship Game, Georgia jumped out to a 10-0 lead before Alabama went on a 28-7 stretch that extended into the fourth quarter. The loss of wide receiver John Metchie III (knee) during the second quarter was not game-changing, and Alabama's had time to coach up some talented replacements.
The messages being sent are that Georgia has more overall talent, but Alabama has more gamebreakers, and that the Crimson Tide adjusts better that the Bulldogs.
Championship Costs
SI Tix did a breakdown of what it would cost the average fan, depending on the seats of course, to attend Monday's game and estimated it could be done for $3,500.
Of course, it also doesn't factor in things like air fare between Birmingham and Indianapolis jumping up over $1,000 last week after Alabama advanced from the Cotton Bowl Classic.
The breakdown is $450 for flight cost, $400 for a non-downtown hotel, and $2,200 ticket cost.
At least the latter cost is accurate. Earlier this week the average ticket price in the upper level end zone was 1,032 for Alabama fans, and $1,123 for Georgia.
Upper level sideline was $1,595 and $1,472, respectively.
Lower level end zone was $2,069 and $2,071; and lover level sideline $3,383 and $3,230.
Rookie Watch
A quick NFL note on the final weekend of the regular season.
Four rookies this season — led by Miami wide receiver Jaylen Waddle with 99, and followed by Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (82), Cincinnati wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (79) and Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris (70) — have at least 70 catches this season.
That's the first time it's happened in league history. The previous best was three in 2014.
Waddle needs just three caches against the Patriots on Sunday to set the NFL rookie record, which is currently 101 by Anquan Boldin.
Harris leads all rookies with 1,612 scrimmage yards (1,172 rushing, 440 receiving) and can become the fifth rookie in NFL history with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards.
The other four are Saquon Barkley, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James and Billy Sims. Faulk and James are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Has he been Alabama's best rookie in 2021? Look for an answer next week ...
Did you Notice
• Film Room: What Does Georgia Have to Do Differently This Time vs. Alabama?
• Sankey: 12-Team Model is Best Option for Replacing Four-Team Playoff
• Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M Staff to Be Featured on ESPN's CFP Megacast
• Is the SEC’s Playoff Dominance Bad for College Football?
Christopher Walsh's notes column All Things CW appears every week on BamaCentral.
