Championship Week Edition: All Things CW

Heading down to the last day, and the last games of the 2022 season, the Alabama Crimson Tide still has a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Author:
Christopher Walsh
Publish date:
Dec 3, 2022 5:31 AM EST

In this story:

Alabama Crimson Tide

The All Things CW notes column by Christopher Walsh appeared in five parts this week, one each day. This is the combined version ...

If you think your Thanksgiving weekend was hectic, take a moment and think about what Alabama Crimson Tide athletic director Greg Byrne did.

On Thursday, when most people were celebrating the holiday, he was in Portland, Ore., on hand for the men's basketball game against No. 12 Michigan State.

For Friday, he was back in Tuscaloosa to see the the soccer team secure a spot in the College Cup for the first time, with its 3-2 overtime win against Duke.

Saturday, of course, he was at Bryant-Denny Stadium for the Iron Bowl, and what may have been the final game for both quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. Byrne more than makes the rounds at home football games, and this one attracted a lot of prominent alumni who needed personal attention.

Remember, a key part of his job is to raise money for the athletic department, and he's very hands on in that respect.

Oh, and to top it off the basketball team beat then-No. 1 North Carolina on Sunday, when everyone not on the team was in recovery mode. The guess here is that after the four-overtime victory everyone slept pretty well on the plane home.

You might have missed Byrne's tweet during the game. Not being there probably drove him a little nuts:

The point is this, even if football doesn't make the College Football Playoff it was a heck of a weekend for the Crimson Tide — the kind that can have longterm impacts.

Alabama athletics have grown to the point that when football season ends there's often a feeling among the fan base of "Ok, that was cool. What's next?"

This year no one will have to wait as soccer will play in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament on Friday, and there's no longer any doubt that this basketball team is pretty good and should be in the mix for the Southeastern Conference title, if not more.

In case you missed it on Monday, the latest ranking had Alabama and Arkansas tied at No. 11 in the AP Top 25, Tennessee at No. 13, Auburn at No. 15, and preseason favorite Kentucky at No. 19. That's going to make for a fun season.

Moreover, if beating outgoing No. 1 wasn't enough, Alabama will visit the new No. 1, Houston, on Dec. 10 (assuming the Cougars don't lose to St. Mary's or North Florida this upcoming week).

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide hosts South Dakota State on Saturday in what should be a rocking Coleman Coliseum.

But adding to the optimism are three things:

1) The team wasn't at full strength for the Phil Knight Invitational.

2) A lot of the new guys are still sort of getting their feet wet at playing both at this level, and with each other. The same goes for a lot of the transfers.

3) Point guard Javon Quinerly is barely back from a knee injury. He's still trying to get his legs.

"For Quinerly not being cleared to play a couple of weeks ago and come in and play 44 minutes, I didn’t think it was one of his best shooting performances for sure, but he still ends up with 21 points, six rebounds and eight assists, I think that is still a good stat line for a guy that was not cleared to play two weeks ago," head coach Nate Oats said after the UNC victory.

Buckle up was the mantra of the previous basketball administration, but everyone should do just that with this group. Everyone but Byrne, that is.

The more the basketball team wins, the more excitement surrounding the program, and the more money he might be able to raise for the Crimson Standard and toward the proposed new area.

Don't forget, though, there are other facility projects in the works as well, including yet another upgrade to Bryant-Denny Stadium. We're still on only phase two of three of the massive initiative.

He's going to be busy.

Alabama's CFP Chances Boil Down to One Thing

[Note: This segment was originally posted on Tuesday morning, before the College Football Playoff rankings were announced, and obviously before USC lost]

This isn't to make the case for the Crimson Tide to make the College Football Playoff. Nick Saban did that on his own Saturday night after the 49-27 victory against Auburn at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

"We are a good football team and hopefully people will recognize that," he said.

This also isn't to suggest that the selection committee should have the Crimson Tide in the semifinals at this point. There are still conference championships to be played, and if the four teams at the top of the rankings, which we assume will be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Southern California, win, they should all be in.

However, the committee will have a tough decision at No. 5 this week, which will designate the first alternate should one or more of those teams stumble. The top three might be good enough to still get in with a conference championship loss, but probably not the Trojans.

Both major polls have Ohio State at No. 5, and Alabama at No. 6.

The computers that were used for the BCS actually have the Buckeyes at No. 4, but one would think that a potential Pac-12 title win could change that.

So the committee will have Ohio State ahead of Alabama, right?

It's not that clear-cut of a decision, and it's because of the reason we've been harping on for weeks.

Here are the rankings criteria for the selection committee. The one at the top should jump out at you.

Rankings criteria

Strength of schedule
Head-to-head game results
Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
Results vs. common opponents
Conference championships

Three of those aren't a factor between Alabama and Ohio State. The two that are are strength of schedule and results vs. teams in the Top 25 rankings.

Both of those factors favor the Crimson Tide.

2022 Ohio State Schedule, Results

Game, Date, (Rank) Opponent, Outcome

Sep 3: (2) Ohio State (5) vs. Notre Dame, W 21-10
Sep 10: (3) Ohio State vs. Arkansas State, W 45-12
Sep 17: (3) Ohio State vs. Toledo, W 77-21
Sep 24: (3) Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, W 52-21
Oct 1: (3) Ohio State vs. Rutgers, W 49-10
Oct 8: (3) Ohio State at Michigan State, W 49-20
Oct 22: (2) Ohio State vs. Iowa, W 54-10
Oct 29: (2) Ohio State at (13) Penn State, W 44-31
Nov 5: (2) Ohio State at Northwestern, W 21-7
Nov 12: (2) Ohio State vs. Indiana, W 56-14
Nov 19: (2) Ohio State at Maryland, W 43-30
Nov 26: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Michigan, L 45-23

Ohio State played its first five games at home, including then-No. 5 Notre Dame in its opener. However, the Fighting Irish had a new coaching staff and turned around the subsequent week and lost to Marshall.

Its four road games were at Michigan State, Penn State, Northwestern and Maryland. Only the Nittany Lions were ranked at the time, No. 13.

Their combined records this season: 23-25. Granted, 11 of those losses were by the Wildcats, but overall that's still a mediocre schedule.

There are five teams in the Big Ten that are not bowl eligible and Ohio State played four of them. It also faced Wisconsin, which fired its coach and is 6-6.

Now compare that to Alabama.

The Crimson Tide's weakest road opponent was at Texas, and the hype for that game was astronomical (both ESPN and Fox had their pregame shows on site). The Longhorns weren't ranked then, but are now at No. 21. FYI, Notre Dame is at No 19, and remember that Ohio State hosted the Irish.

Alabama's other road games: No. 20 Arkansas, No. 6 Tennessee, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Ole Miss. The worst record among those teams is 8-4.

Their combined records: 43-17.

Will that be enough to get Alabama above Ohio State? We'll see. This is why Crimson Tide fans should have been rooting against Michigan last week because the case would have been much easier to make against the Wolverines. They've played exactly two ranked teams all season.

CFP selectors can use a variety of advanced analytics to gauge teams, but those numbers don't play a formal role in the proceedings. Many of them may be asking themselves two things: How much does a 22-point loss at home hurt in this kind of situation? Would Alabama be favored in a game against Ohio State?

Both are good questions.

How about this one: Is a win over a non-bowl eligible team better than a last-play loss at Tennessee or LSU? Because that's the difference between these teams on paper.

Basically it'll come down to the judgement of the selectors. If they think Alabama is deserving, Crimson Tide fans sweat out another week hoping for upsets, knowing that a playoff spot would be like playing with house money.

But if they think Ohio State is the better team, the Buckeyes will get the nod and Alabama can start thinking about its bowl game and next season.

However, if that happens the committee will be sending an unsettling message that strength of schedule isn't that important any more, after its otherwise been considered a crucial cornerstone of the selection process. The question then becomes did the committee ignore its own guidelines.

Don't Expect the Same Alabama Team When it Next Plays

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night may have not surprised anyone, but that doesn't mean that there won't be extensive discussion and debate for the the rest of the week.

No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Michigan are playing for top seeding this weekend in their respective championship games. After No. 3 TCU, the difference between every team from No. 4 and 7, including the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 appears to be razor thin.

Nothing is set in stone yet.

Of course, that’s not exactly what selection committee chairman Boo Corrigan said when he was on the broadcast announcing the rankings.

Corrigan appeared to tell ESPN that the hierarchy of Ohio State, Alabama and Tennessee was set, meaning that there was no way for the No. 6 Crimson Tide to surpass the No. 5 Buckeyes, the key to Alabama having a reasonable chance of securing a spot in the semifinals.

He then told reporters during the subsequent press conference that that wasn't true, and apologized for the confusion.

"That's not necessarily the case," Corrigan said.

"I think that's a segment of what we're going to see this weekend is all the games, and we're going to see how it all plays out and be able to make our decisions next week and get back on a phone call with y'all explaining them."

Keep in mind that some of what Corrigan said was to leave a little wiggle room, or give himself an out should things be absolutely crazy during championship weekend.

There was this about Ohio State's 22-point loss at home to Michigan last Saturday:

"The recency bias is something we do talk about on a regular basis to make sure as we're going through this that we're looking at everything and looking at the full body of work. It was talked about in the committee room that going into really early in the fourth quarter the game was still close. That being said, you can't completely dismiss the way the fourth quarter ended with Michigan kind of taking over the game there late. There's a lot of respect for Ohio State in the room and the wins they've had this year, so again, taking the full body of work, it was certainly something we looked at, but it wasn't, it's a blowout, let's move on."

There's also what he said about weighing the Buckeyes against two-loss Alabama and Tennessee:

"We try to evaluate every team on an individual basis as we go through this, and as we looked at it, Ohio State and their two good wins over Penn State and over Notre Dame overshadowed Alabama and Tennessee from the standpoint of two close losses for Alabama, a couple good wins over Texas and Mississippi State, and then with regards to Tennessee, I think that loss against South Carolina really weighed with the committee."

So the committee felt that the 63-38 blowout loss for Tennessee at South Carolina was a lot more damaging to the Volunteers, than the Buckeyes losing by 22 at home? And that Ohio State's wins at Penn State and against an overrated Notre Dame team in the opener are more impressive than Alabama's schedule?

The first one makes sense. The latter, not so much.

"There isn't a whole lot easy about any of this that we're doing," said the North Carolina State athletic director. "We're going over this again and again and making sure that we're spending time and getting everyone's opinion of the 13 people on the committee and making sure that we're all together making the right decisions."

Regardless, the committee having Ohio State over Alabama means that the Crimson Tide's playoff chances are over barring something extreme, and fans can start thinking about whether they might want to spend New Year's in New Orleans or South Florida.

The players have to be thinking about it as well, especially those who are expected to enter the 2023 NFL Draft.

Although it would be great to see Bryce Young or Will Anderson Jr. play a final game, it's not worth the risk, especially since both could be top-five selections.

Should they opt out, we could see Jalen Milroe start, with Chris Braswell at Jack linebacker.

Would running back Jahmyr Gibbs play? He's probably in line to be the second running back drafted behind Bijan Robinson of Texas. If not, we could see Jase McClellan get the nod.

Have we seen guard Emil Ekiyor Jr.'s final game? How about center Darrian Dalcourt or defensive linemen DJ Dale and Bryon Young?

Would Henry To'oTo'o play in a bowl game? Brian Branch and Jordan Battle are considered two of the best safeties in this year's draft. Would they really want the wear and tear of another game, especially if its played on turf?

DeVonta Smith and Kristian Story had better get ready. So should a number of other players as Alabama could look like a completely different team even through any bowl game would still be considered part of of the 2022 season.

A 12-Team Playoff Comes With One Big Concern For Nick Saban

For years, Saban and I had a similar opinion about College Football Playoff expansion: We weren't for it.

Actually, that's not accurate.

The competition aspect of it has always been fine. Not to put words in his mouth, I've generally thought the coach's attitude has always been primarily "Just tell us the format and we'll be there ready to go," which was reflected by how he didn't blink when college football went from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team College Football Playoff.

The Alabama Crimson Tide won three national championships with each setup.

The concern that we both had was for the players, who didn't have any say in the matter and could be getting a raw deal. For me, specifically, it was that the wear-and-tear of the season was getting to be too much, resulting in too many injuries.

A perfect example was last season, with Alabama losing wide receiver John Metchie III in the SEC Championship Game, and then Jameson Williams in the National Championship Game, which were both played on turf. It's part of the game, but still lousy when injuries have such a huge impact on the outcome.

Money is what's led the game down this path, and what it took for college football to have a tournament of some sort to decide its champion. But we keep adding, and adding, and adding ...

I still remember when establishing the 12-game regular season in 2006 was the compromise to conference championship games, giving each school a guaranteed sixth home date.

Now we're looking at the possibility of numerous teams playing more than 15 games. That's a lot of extra hitting, and so forth.

Saban's other big concern was the potential loss to the tradition of bowl games, but the damage has already been done there. So he's had a change of heart, and it's not necessarily because the Crimson Tide took two losses this season and is on the verge of missing out on the semifinals.

If anything, having a 12-team tournament instead of a four will only make things easier for Alabama.

It would also create a lot more overall excitement for college football.

“When we started the four-team playoff, I was one of the first to say this is a good thing, but it’s going to diminish the importance of bowl games," Saban said (and yes, he was correct). "So what has happened now? If you’re not in the playoffs, half your team doesn’t want to play in a bowl game. Anybody that’s got a chance to go out for the draft, anybody that’s thinking about transferring or whatever. And now you’ve got name, image and likeness, so maybe you ought to get into the portal and see how much money you can get from some other team. There’s all these dynamics that are created that bowl games, sort of, the importance got diminished.”

More bowls will be included in the new 12-team playoff structure, however only on the top end. Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli lobbied conference leaders to play first-round games at bowl sites instead of on-campus venues, but that's not going to happen, at least for now.

Keep in mind what developed at the FCS level, which originally went to a four-team, playoff in 1978. It expanded to eight teams in 1981, 12 teams in 1982, 16 in 1996, 20 in 2010, and 24 in 2013.

If the non-major bowls are patient, they too might eventually have a seat at the table, because the more successful the CFP becomes, the more the tournament will grow.

“I'm actually an advocate of having a bigger playoff because the only fan interest now is in the playoffs,” Saban recently said on his radio show.

"Now, that will completely diminish bowl games and, hopefully, some kind of way, we can make the bowl games a part of this playoff system so that we don’t diminish some of the bowl games and the traditions that go with those bowl games.”

Going back to the players, they've been ignored throughout this whole process and debate. At least with NIL we can say that they're getting more financially, yet at what cost to their physical, and perhaps mental well-being?

"I’m in favor of having a 12-team playoff as long as we don’t make the players play too many games," Saban said on his radio show at the start of the season.

“We’ve had several teams here play 15 games. That’s a lot of games to play. So if you keep championship games, like the SEC Championship Game and all that, and then make players play all these playoff games, it’s probably not gonna be good."

Pay attention folks. There's no better expert on this subject in the world.

Getting rid of conference championship games would be a good first step to giving the players some relief although it'll never happen because they make so much money. Look for the NCAA to instead start the season a week earlier and include another bye week.

It won't be enough.

Few will care.

The players will be the ones to live with the consequences.

Bonus: 12-Team Playoff will Add New Dimension, Venue Selection

The 12-team College Football Playoff will soon be a reality and with it will be a new dynamic that few people have talked about, venue selection.

The format will be as follows:

The six highest-ranked conference champions, as determined by the CFP committee, will receive automatic bids.
The next six highest-ranked teams will get at-large spots.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive byes into the quarterfinals.
First-round games will be played at the home stadium of the team with the better seed, while quarterfinals and semifinals games will be played in a rotation of the six bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach)

The first-round games will all end by Dec. 21. For the quarterfinals, the teams will decided where they play based on seeding.

Specifically, the New Year's Day six will rotate the quarterfinals and semifinal games on an annual basis. The guess here is that the emphasis will be on geography.

So when the time comes, the top team remaining will choose where it wants to play, then the next team, and so on until the fourth team gets whatever's last. The same thing will happen with the semifinals, with the top team picking the location it prefers.

Four of those sites play on artificial turf. Two have grass fields.

It should lead to some interesting internal discussions when weighing all the factors, including what will keep fans happy.

How many can afford to potentially visit two bowl sites and a neutral site that could be anywhere to see a championship run?

We'll use this year's rankings heading in to the conference championships to demonstrate, and for the sake of argument, we're going to separate the two western sites, Rose and Fiesta, along with the Cotton and Sugar bowls since they're the closest in terms of distance.

Alabama is the sixth seed and for simplification purposes all the top-seeded teams win. The quarterfinals would be Georgia vs. Clemson, Michigan vs. Tennessee, TCU vs. Alabama, and Ohio State vs. USC.

The quarterfinal sites are the Fiesta, Sugar, Orange and Peach bowls.

Georgia would probably want to play in its back yard, but it's a short trip for Clemson as well. Would it be tempting to chose Miami over Atlanta? The guess here the Peach Bowl.

Next up, Michigan. None of the remaining locations are close (which may turn out to be a significant disadvantage for the Big Ten), and one would think the Wolverines would want to try and slow the Volunteers down. So grass it is and the Orange Bowl.

TCU could go Sugar or Fiesta, but since Alabama is the opponent it'll make Crimson Tide fans travel out to Arizona.

That would leave USC vs. Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, probably the best location for fans, and maybe the worst for players.

In this scenario, the Rose and Cotton bowls would be the semifinal sites. If Georgia gets the pick, would you want to stay in SEC territory or go for the safer surface.

If I'm a coach, and I'm given the choice, my team's playing on grass regardless of the distance. A lot of other factors will be coming into play, though.

The 12-team College Football Playoff will soon be a reality and with it will be a new dynamic that few people have talked about, venue selection.

The format will be as follows:

The six highest-ranked conference champions, as determined by the CFP committee, will receive automatic bids.
The next six highest-ranked teams will get at-large spots.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will receive byes into the quarterfinals.
First-round games will be played at the home stadium of the team with the better seed, while quarterfinals and semifinals games will be played in a rotation of the six bowls (Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach)