What Arizona State Must to Improve NCAA Tournament Case

The Sun Devils are in a better than expected position a month into the 2025-26 season.

ASU Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley walks onto the court before their game against the Georgia State Panthers at Desert Financial Arena on Nov. 17, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

TEMPE -- There have been mixed feelings surrounding a surprising 6-2 start to the Arizona State basketball season - some are deciding that this team is simply better than expected, while others are refusing to buy into the 2025-26 season until they see more.

The computers tend to agree, as the initial NET rankings revealed on Monday placed the Sun Devils as the 100th best team in college basketball - NCAA tournament teams typically place around 60 at the lowest, according to precedent that has been set up since NET came into play during the 2018/19 season.

Arizona State on SI explores the path the Sun Devils must take to return to the tournament for the first time since the 2022-23 season in what would be one of the biggest shocks of this season in general.

Nov 26, 2025; Lahaina, HI, USA; USC Trojans forward Jaden Brownell (33) shoots over Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) in the second half in the championship match at Lahaina Civic Center. Mandatory Credit: Marco Garcia-Imagn Images | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

Step One: Avoid "Bad" Losses Over Remainder of Non-Conference Play

At this point, Arizona State needs to win as many games as possible, but they also must avoid "bad" losses.

This includes the Oklahoma Sooners this Saturday, who rank 104th in NET, as well as Northern Arizona and Oregon State.

They can surely afford to lose to UCLA, although the Bruins are currently underachieving, as well as Santa Clara, which looks to be the third-best team in the West Coast Conference behind strong metrics so far this season.

Nov 26, 2025; Lahaina, HI, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils forward Santiago Trouet (1) goes for the net over USC Trojans forward Jacob Cofie (6) during the first half of the championship match at Lahaina Civic Center. Mandatory Credit: Marco Garcia-Imagn Images | Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

Step Two: Win Between 7-9 Big 12 Games

A 4-1 finish to non-conference play will place Arizona State at 10-3 going into their second trek into Big 12 league play.

Popular predictive rankings site Teamrankings projects that the Sun Devils must win 18 games to have a fighting chance to make the 2026 tournament, and 19 wins to be a safe bet.

ASU Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley talks to his team during a timeout in their game against the Georgia State Panthers at Desert Financial Arena on Nov. 17, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This means that Bobby Hurley's squad must win at least seven conference games in the regular season, while adding at least one in conference tournament play to feel great about making it into the field.

Although 19 wins is a solid baseline to feel secure about a tournament berth, it seems to be paramount that the team wins at least one more "signature" game on the schedule after defeating Texas in Maui.

The opportunities will be ample, as the Sun Devils face BYU, Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa State over the course of conference play, as well as unranked teams from within the league that are NET darlings, such as Colorado.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.

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