Using ESPN's FPI to Predict 2022 Pac-12 Season
Even in a down year, the Pac-12 still wasn't able to produce anything noteworthy on the national stage.
It was the Utah Utes that captured the conference's title in Las Vegas after defeating Oregon twice in a three-week span before losing to Ohio State in a thrilling Rose Bowl meeting.
It was the first time since 2015 (Stanford) where typical Pac-12 powers Oregon, USC or Washington didn't claim the conference's top spot.
As exciting as Utah's run was for west coast folks to enjoy, the reality is the Pac-12 still struggles for legitimacy and respect on a national level. The 2021 season was yet another year where the conference didn't see representation in the College Football Playoffs, as their two appearances are last for any Power Five conference.
The Pac-12 finished as the only conference to not win any of their bowl games, going an astounding 0-5 in the postseason.
Yet a new year brings hope for every fan base, and changes throughout the Pac-12 means anything is up for grabs.
Can Utah become the fourth school to repeat as conference champions since 2010? Will new head coaching hires at USC, Oregon and Washington propel those programs back to the top? Will Arizona State ever make good on their dark-horse status?
Everybody will have their own predictions on how 2022 will go, yet ESPN's College Football Power Index has become one of the more reputable data sources to project what teams will find success on the field.
Here's how the Pac-12 standings currently play out on the virtual gridiron:
ESPN's FPI Predicts 2022 Pac-12 Standings
Pac-12 North Projections
1. Oregon Ducks (projected record of 9.3-3.2)
2. Washington Huskies (7.3-4.8)
3. Oregon State Beavers (6-6)
4. California Golden Bears (5.5-6.5)
5. Stanford Cardinal (4.9-7.1)
6. Washington State Cougars (4.7-7.3)
The Ducks have the highest percentage given to win their division at 65%, as the Pac-12 North doesn't appear to be vastly up for grabs next season. The next highest to win the division is Washington at 17%.
Only two teams in the North (Oregon and Washington) have power index ratings that rank in the nation's top 50. For comparison, the Pac-12 South has four.
According to ESPN, the division shapes up to be largely Oregon's for the taking, as any other winner would be fairly surprising.
Pac-12 South Projections
1. Utah Utes (9.3-3.2)
2. UCLA Bruins (8.7-3.5)
3. USC Trojans (7.9-4.3)
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (7.7-4.5)
5. Arizona Wildcats (3.5-8.5)
6. Colorado Buffaloes (3.2-8.8)
The South looks to be more competitive than their North counterparts, as four of the five "top" teams in the Pac-12 come from this division.
Utah, despite losing talent such as linebacker Devin Lloyd, returns a strong team and ESPN's belief in them shows, as the Utes have the second-highest chance to win their division behind Oregon at 45.4%. UCLA (20.3%), USC (17.9%) and Arizona State (16.1%) follow.
Utah is projected to have a 4.9% chance to make the College Football Playoffs, by far the highest in the conference. They have the 10th-highest chance in the country, edging out programs such as Penn State and LSU.
The Utes also have the best chance to run the table and go undefeated, according to ESPN.
Pac-12 Championship Matchup: Utah vs. Oregon
It's a rematch of last year's meeting in the Pac-12 title game, as the Ducks and Utes project to be the two best teams in the conference.
Both teams have tough games to open the season. Utah travels to Florida to battle the Gators while Oregon hosts the Georgia Bulldogs.
The two also play each other in the second-to-last week of the regular season, mirroring last year's road to Las Vegas.
It figures to be a close game, yet ESPN gives the slightest edge to Oregon (33.3%) over Utah (29.4%) to win the Pac-12. This would be Oregon's third conference title in four seasons.
The Ducks' low chances of making the CFP likely means the Pac-12 won't see a representative in the playoffs once again.
Yet the Pac-12 never fails to deliver in entertainment value, as there's just something about west-coast games late at night that bring on the unexpected on a weekly basis.
For now, however, Oregon once again can claim the title of Pac-12 kings in the eyes of the super-computers at ESPN.
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