Why Arizona State’s Bubble Hopes Come Down to Consistency

On paper, Arizona State vs. Baylor might not look like a must-watch matchup. One team is 14-12. The other is 13-13. Neither is ranked. But if you look deeper, this game carries serious NCAA Tournament implications.

For Arizona State, this isn’t just another Big 12 game.

It’s about proving consistency.

All season long, the Sun Devils have shown flashes of being a tournament team. They’ve beaten quality opponents. They’ve competed hard in close losses.

But they haven’t consistently stacked wins together. That’s the difference between being on the bubble and being safely in.

Feb 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes guard Jalin Holland (11) defends on Arizona State Sun Devils forward Andrija Grbovic (14) in the second half at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Margin for Error Is Gone

Right now, Arizona State is still on the outside looking in when it comes to most bracket projections. They’re not firmly in the “last four in” group. That means there’s very little room for mistakes.

If they beat Baylor and then follow it up with another win against TCU, suddenly the conversation changes.

Road wins over top-50 NET teams would strengthen their resume in a big way.

But if they lose? They could drop back toward the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

That’s how tight things are.

A Season of “What Ifs”

The frustrating part for Arizona State is how close they’ve been.

The UCF game. The Oregon State loss. A couple of tight contests against Colorado. Flip just two or three of those results, and the Sun Devils would already be sitting comfortably in tournament position.

Instead, they’re fighting to prove they belong.

That’s why consistency matters so much now. It’s not enough to play hard. It’s not enough to compete. They have to close.

Feb 10, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) has his shot blocked by BYU Cougars guard Richie Saunders (15) during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Baylor’s Defensive Openings

Baylor enters this game struggling, especially on defense.

They’ve given up big scoring numbers in recent losses, including 90+ points in multiple games. That presents an opportunity.

But Baylor also has talented guards like Cameron Carr and ToundeYessoufou who can heat up quickly. If Arizona State lets up defensively or loses focus for even a few minutes, Baylor can capitalize.

Consistency isn’t just about offense. It’s about defensive intensity for 40 full minutes.

espn — Feb 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; General view of a ESPN base court cameraman before the first half between the Arizona State Sun Devils against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Identity of This Team

One thing that stands out about this Arizona State group is how connected they seem to be.

The roster is diverse, with players from different backgrounds and even different countries. Yet they’ve grown together over the season.

Now it’s about turning that chemistry into results.

If the Sun Devils can string together strong performances, especially on the road, they’ll put real pressure on the selection committee to take them seriously.

bobby hurle — Feb 4, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Bobby Hurley watches the team warm up before the game against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

At this point in the season, talent isn’t the question.

Consistency is.

And Saturday’s game against Baylor might be the clearest test yet of whether Arizona State can finally find it.