All Hogs

Bowl projections make Hogs schedule bleak, but offer ways to big wins

Only one game doesn't have projected path to Arkansas Razorbacks victory
Kent Smith|
Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

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Arkansas RazorbacksNotre Dame Fighting IrishTennessee VolunteersLSU TigersMississippi State BulldogsArkansas State Red WolvesMemphis TigersOle Miss RebelsMissouri Tigers

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Bowl projections in mid-August are about as useful and meaningful as preseason polls.

It's too far out to know this stuff, so it's more for entertainment value than anything else. The teams listed in the Top 10 are the likely contenders for the top five or six spots, but once you get further down the line things get a little more shakey.

However, the one thing bowl projections offer that a Top 25 doesn't is a certain value in its vagueness and an ability to stretch things out to which schools are going to have a winning season rather than a limit of 25 teams.

Expectations can be placed into tiers based on bowl quality rather than a set specific ranking, which is more useful overall when understanding how good a team is expected to be. It is with this understanding that we will take a look at the Arkansas Razorbacks schedule, and evalute its true expected difficulty based upon recent bowl projections.

ESPN assigned a pair of reporters to produce one of these lists earlier this week, so rather than duplicate effort and research, it will be trusted their intentions are true and the resulting product about as fair as anything else that's going to be out there for this evaluation.

Let's proceed in schedule order to get a true feel for the roller coaster that awaits the Hogs in the coming weeks.

Alabama A&M

Will not qualify for a bowl.

Arkansas State

The Red Wolves have a projection to play UTSA at the First Responders Bowl at Ford Stadium in Dallas, which is home to the SMU Mustangs. It's a Tier 5 bowl, but it's in the upper crust of that group of bowl games. Because there is only one projection, it means Arkansas State is expected to be a five or six win team.

However, the level of bowl suggests a big win in that schedule somewhere. There are definitely opportunities for that type of win. In addition to a pseudo home game against the Razorbacks in Little Rock, the Red Wolves host No. 22 Iowa State in Jonesboro the following week and close the season against Dowell Loggains' Appalachian State team in North Carolina.

A win in any of those three games would boost a 6-6 record enough to warrant the slightly better bowl placement.
Bowl: Tier 5

Ole Miss

Either the Rebels are going to be slightly worse than last year's team that made a push for one of the final playoff spots or there are going to be more really good teams cramming the top level of the SEC. The Fighting Kiffins receive a pair of bowl projections.

The first is to face Michigan in the Music City Bowl. The people of Oxford would much rather see the Wolverines in a lower level playoff game, but that's just not in the cards in this case.

The other projection has the Rebels facing Indiana at the Reliaquest Bowl down in Tampa. Something about this projection screams possible early season loss that messed everything up.

Kentucky, Arkansas and LSU are the most likely candidates. Considering the rest of the schedule suggests a loss to the Tigers is already in the equation for both projections, it looks like Arkansas is expected to squeeze out a win, along with a loss to either South Carolina or Florida late.

A mid-season loss to Georgia is already penciled in, making the Arkansas win scenario a four-loss season, thus the assignment to face Indiana.

Bowl: Tier 2.5

Memphis

The Tigers were an 11-win team last season and have gained consideration as the possible Group of Five qualifier for the playoffs. However, despite getting Arkansas in Memphis early in the season as a possible statement win, the Tigers are without star quarterback Seth Henigan as he is off playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars now.

That's why, instead of stealing a playoff spot, Memphis is projected to face Virginia Tech in the Go Bowling Military Bowl. The other projection sends them to face TCU in the Lockheed-Martin Armed Forces Bowl.

Both projections indicate an expected loss to Arkansas, although there's a little wiggle room in Lockheed-Martin projection for a win over the Hogs and a loss in conference.

Bowl: Tier 4

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have two bowl projections, both for the playoffs. Notre Dame faces Miami as the No. 6 seed in one, and LSU as the No. 7 seed in the other.

This indicates at least one, possibly two losses took place along the way. Considering the Irish are still trying to figure out who is going to play quarterback and the fact they have a mine field awaiting them for the first part of their schedule, any losses are going to come early on.

That means going 3-1 or 2-2 against No. 10 Miami, No. 19 Texas A&M, Arkansas or No. 25 Boise State. Both the Hurricanes and the Hogs get Notre Dame in their stadiums, making them the most likely culprits.

Bowl: Tier 1

Tennessee

As expected, the Volunteers have a pair of bowl projections, but neither include a return to the playoffs. In fact, both, especially one, suggest it might be a relatively rough year in Tennessee.

The first, and most troubling, is an appearance in the Kinder's Texas Bowl against Iowa State. That means the Vols are hanging four, most likely five losses on their resume.

There is little doubt people think Josh Heupel got the worst end of the quarterback trade with UCLA, although no one will suggest it was the wrong move overall as a program because a statement had to be made in regard to players trying to hold the program hostage through NIL.

The other projection has Tennessee squaring off against Michigan at the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. This is a bit more hopeful and would require three, at most four losses to play out.

In either scenario, the Hogs have a chance, but that Texas Bowl projection almost certainly has a second Razorbacks upset in as many years, this time on the road.

The Citrus Bowl is a Tier 2, but an appearance in the Texas Bowl would mean a drop to the top of Tier 4.

Bowl: Tier 3

Texas A&M

Take everything said about Tennessee and repeat minus the quarterback stuff. The Aggies and Vols are being viewed as interchangeable.

If the Aggies struggle, they will face BYU in the Kinder's Texas Bowl. If they hold it together for the most part, then quarterback Marcel Reed will have had a good enough season at quarterback to take on the Runnin' Bret Bielema's of Illinois in the Citrus Bowl.

This would be big because the Illini are a fan favorite to get into the playoffs and make a bit of noise. Think of them as this year's Indiana, but with much more credibility to their schedule.

They will have narrowly missed their dream scenario if they end up in Florida taking on the Aggies.

Bowl: Tier 3

Auburn

The Tigers have people thinking everything from playoff darkhorse to SEC doormat. However, the bowl projections have them squarely in the middle.

Auburn is projected to end up in the Gaspirilla Bowl against Boston College. In the other projection, the same two teams go head-to-head in the Birmingham Bowl.

This is definitely a 6-6 regular season finish either way its sliced, which leaves plenty of room for an Arkansas win at home.

Bowl: Tier 4

Mississippi State

Times are bleak in Starkville. No bowl projection.

LSU

It's a good thing the Hogs got a bit of a mid-season break with Auburn and Mississippi State because it gets brutal the rest of the way out. LSU starts the final quarter of the Arkansas schedule with a pair of bowl projections, both of which include playoff spots.

The Tigers take on No. 8 Oregon as a No. 9 seed, or they face No. 7 Notre Dame as a No. 10 seed.

Technically there's room for the Hogs to pull off an upset based on the schedule, but the two losses it would take for the Tigers to land these seeds will more likely come from Clemson and Alabama.

Bowl: Tier 1

Texas

Bad news for Arkansas on this one. Texas is projected on both fronts to take the overall No. 1 seed and advance all the way to the national championship game.

This is the only team on the schedule where there's not a reasonable explanation for how things are projected while including a loss to Arkansas.

Bowl: Tier 1

Missouri

There seems to be little disagreement here. The Tigers relatively soft schedule lands Mizzou in the Tax Slayer Gator Bowl.

One projection features a battle with Virginia Tech and the other with Georgia Tech.

Because of Mizzou's schedule and how it plays out, this projection almost guarantees a loss to the Hogs in Fayetteville. Otherwise, it's hard to get to the three losses it will take for this to happen.

Bowl: Tier 2

So, at season's end, the Razorbacks' schedule is going to be loaded with bowl bound teams. Only two are projected to not have a shot, which is less than the number of playoff teams Arkansas is expected to face.

Still, despite the number of successful teams, there are lots of cracks in the projections that allow for Arkansas to realistically be one of the teams inflicting damage to their opponents, even two of the playoff teams.

Arkansas

However, the final projection for Arkansas is far more reflective of the reality of how difficult the Razorbacks schedule happens to be. There's a lot of "opportunity" on it, but only four that the Hogs are expected to take advantage of to reach their final win total with the two projected "guaranteed" wins.

Arkansas only has one bowl projection, which means like Arkansas State, the Razorbacks are expected to tread water with five or six wins. The one projection pits the Hogs against Tulane in the Birmingham Bowl.

While Tulane is less than exciting, it's technically a step up to play a Tier 4 bowl game that's at least in a stadium that isn't under construction or in need or running water and working bathrooms.

As previously written, there is room for Arkansas to pull a few more wins than projected. Considering observations over the past two weeks with the Razorbacks program, there is reason to believe that's exactly what will happen.

It may mean an extra win that puts the regular season at 7-5 with another tacked on with a bowl win to finish 8-5. There's even a possibility of nine wins, but six is beginning to feel less and less likely.

However, with this schedule and what the projections are telling us, finishing the year with seven wins overall after knocking off Tulane would be a successful season. Beating the Green Wave would be anticlimactic, but there would certainly be other wins on the schedule that will evoke feelings close to what fans felt with Tennessee last year.

Bowl: Tier 4

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Kent Smith
KENT SMITH

Kent Smith has been in the world of media and film for nearly 30 years. From Nolan Richardson's final seasons, former Razorback quarterback Clint Stoerner trying to throw to anyone and anything in the blazing heat of Cowboys training camp in Wichita Falls, the first high school and college games after 9/11, to Troy Aikman's retirement and Alex Rodriguez's signing of his quarter billion dollar contract, Smith has been there to report on some of the region's biggest moments. 

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