Odds for Auburn's Freeze easing concerns about job against Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — On Saturday, Auburn coach Hugh Freeze may very well see his future on the opposite sideline at Razorback Stadium.

Not because Freeze is contention to be the next Arkansas coach.

Instead, it’s because after Florida fired Billy Napier the morning after a win against Mississippi State (third time that’s happened to the Bulldogs in the last five years, by the way), the SEC coach on the hottest seat becomes Freeze.

Yes, it’s a close race with Kentucky’s Mark Stoops, but expectations are higher in Auburn than in Lexington and Freeze has not met those expectations.

The Tigers have lost their last four games (all against SEC teams) by a combined 29 points. Yes, there’s been some bad officiating decisions go against Auburn, but a loss is a loss at the end of the day.

“They've been struggling with their offense,” Arkansas interim coach Bobby Petrino said. “There's no question about that, and they ran the ball pretty well last week.”

Like Napier, a win against Arkansas may not be enough to save Freeze’s job. A loss wouldn’t guarantee he loses it, either, but the calls for his firing would grow a lot louder.

It may come down to if the Tigers go to a bowl game and that’s an easy goal to reach.

In addition to Arkansas, Auburn’s final SEC opponents are No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 4 Alabama and Kentucky. The Tigers also have a game against Mercer after a bye week and before the Iron Bowl.

There are three winnable games listed above and that’s all Auburn needs to reach six wins. However, the odds are entirely in the Tigers’ favor.

Who wins Saturday’s game between Arkansas and Auburn is basically a coin-flip and Petrino has had a lot of success against Auburn.

Petrino was 3-1 against the Tigers during his four-year tenure as the Razorbacks’ head coach and that lone loss was against the Cam Newton-led Tigers in 2010 when Tyler Wilon had to come in for an injured Ryan Mallett in what is remembered as Wilson's coming out party.

“I do remember the game there, though, when Tyler (Wilson) came off the bench and threw for, I don’t know, maybe (332 yards), and we couldn’t tackle Cam,” Petrino said. “We just couldn’t tackle him. He was so big and strong and physical. It was going back and forth like a tennis match and was a lot of fun.

“I think it’s going to be a good football game and we’ve got to find a way to win.”

Game Information:

Who: Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (2-5, 0-3 SEC)
When: 11:45 a.m., Saturday
Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.
TV: SEC Network
Radio: Live Radio
Stats: Live Stats
Series History: Auburn leads the all-time series 20-13-1
Last Meeting: Arkansas 24, Auburn 14 (Sept. 21, 2024)
Last time out, Razorbacks: lost to No. 4 Texas A&M, 45-42
Last time out, Tigers: lost to No. 16 Missouri, 23-17 (2 OT)

Odds, Spread and Totals

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Arkansas: -1.5 (-105)
Auburn: +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Arkansas: -110
Auburn: -110

Total

Over: 57.5 (-105)
Under: 57.5 (-115)

SP+ Projections

Projected winner: Auburn
Projected margin of victory: 0.3
Win probability: 51 percent
Projected score: 28-28