Analytics Backup What The Eyes See In Razorbacks’ Fourth Quarter Meltdown Against Vols

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Arkansas Razorbacks haven't been very close to pulling out an SEC victory in a while.

Monday gave first-year coach Ryan Silverfield an opportunity to go through what went wrong during a 24-17 loss to No. 15 Tennessee on Saturday, even if that means being uncomfortable having to think back play-by-play on some drives.

One of those that he had to re-examine was Arkansas' second-to-last offensive drive of the game when offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey called a running back draw up the gut with Sutton Smith on third-and-10 with just over four minutes remaining.

Arkansas Razorbacks running back Cam Settles looks for running room in the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs. | Nilsen Roman, Hogs on SI Image

"I mean, I think just being able— Again, I think you look at that last five and a half minutes of the game," Silverfield said. "We weren't where we needed to be offensive or defensively, and the focus level was there, we just weren't able to execute. You sit there and say, 'Okay, hey, on the third down would you have done something differently?'

"We talked about postgame, possibly sequencing. If you got a certain number of yards, you go for it on that fourth down, but just at that point in the game, we weren't, and really most of the fourth quarter, we found ourselves, offensively, not really being within rhythm."

And not staying steady on offense in any fashion impacted how effective the Razorbacks could be in the fourth quarter. Arkansas rushed for 113 of its 133 yards in the third quarter, but Tennessee was able to overwhelm blockers and find ways to make plays in the backfield.

A three-yard gain on a draw by Smith on third down forced the Razorbacks to punt it away. Despite the punt reaching the six-yard line, Tennessee scored in four plays to take a lead they wouldn't relinquish.

"Then you punt, and I would sit there and say, "Hey, if he told you we could back them up to the six-yard line, cool punt.' Absolutely, that makes sense," Silverfield said. "But then we would give up an explosive run, so it was kind of a hand— that three-and-out not being effective, and then, obviously, giving up the explosive runs shortly, when you had them backed up, was kind of where you started to see it unravel at the end."

Where's Braylen Russell?

Or Cam Settles for that matter. Neither of the two running backs received a single carry in the final two possessions of the fourth quarter while being the most effective runners in the game.

Instead, Silverfield and Cramsey opted to trot Sutton Smith on the field to receive with rushes resulting in 0-, and 3-yards.

Russell would've led the Razorbacks in rushing had his 29-yard scamper in the third quarter hadn't been erased due to a holding penalty. On the other hand, Settles consistently picks up positive yardage by falling forward when being tackled.

"We were 0-for-9 on third down and three yards or more," Silverfield said on Monday. "So, at that point, if we got tackled for no gain on a second-and-10, and then hand it off for maybe a 5-yard gain, which would probably be called an efficient run, then you find yourself at third-and-five and weren't able to do it.

"So, just be able to move the sticks in the fourth quarter was ultimately you know part of the reasons that we fell short."

Tennessee Volunteers defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam (2) closes in to tackle Arkansas Razorbacks running back Sutton Smith (5) during the fourth quarter at Razorback Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Russell is second on the team with 51 total snaps on the year, and grades out at 66.8 as the team's most consistent rusher, according to Pro Football Focus. But when it comes to him finding more opportunities in the second half of the season, the Natural State native must become more of a complete back.

"Yeah, Braylen's got to continue to be a complete back," Silverfield said. "Love him, obviously. We're going to continue to talk to him about running with better pad-level. Continue to do things right. He's found his nook in doing some different things, but sometimes when everybody's not blocked, continue to be a physical runner.

"But I’ve been pleased with him. I think Braylen's a guy that continues to get better every week, as well. And you know, right now, we got really three guys that we feel bring us different elements of the game. You know, I think if you look at what Braylen Russell is, you may say he's the bigger bruising type."

Silverfield wants Russell to become something he already is, grading out as the Razorbacks best pass blocker in the backfield at 81.0 and 75.5 in "true pass sets."

Settles' overall grade 64.0 ranks him second in the rotation, and Smith comes in at 55.1, which is actually last on the team among running backs.

Even in pass protection, Smith grades out the worst at his position, according to those same analytics.

If a coach, who doesn't particularly believe his team can get it done on fourth down with less than two minutes to go while behind by one score because data doesn't back him up, then it doesn't make sense to keep feeding the ball to ineffective skill position players.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Ryan SIlverfield watches his offense return to the sideline after a punt in the first half. | Nilsen Roman, Hogs On SI Images

That's what makes the final minutes against Tennessee so frustrating, because Arkansas had two running backs who had proven capable of moving the football, yet neither was given an opportunity to make a difference when the game was on the line.

Instead, the Razorbacks settled for conservative play-calling, questionable personnel decisions and started chasing rabbits when asked why they went certain directions late in the fourth quarter.

Silverfield can point to execution, field position or analytics all he wants, but those explanations only go so far when the decisions leading up to them deserve just as much scrutiny.

At some point, Arkansas has to start putting its most effective players in position to win games.

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