Why Razorbacks will run wild, end losing streak

Three reasons the odds in the Hogs' favor against Mississippi State

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) hands off to running back Mike Washington Jr (4) during the first quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The two coaches who will stand on opposite sidelines Saturday at Razorback Stadium have a total of zero SEC wins this decade.

Granted, Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is only in his second season and Bobby Petrino was named Arkansas interim head coach a month ago.

But the fact remains that someone will leave the stadium with their first SEC win.

The Razorbacks are the favorites to get the win and it’ll be the last time this season anyone can say that. Arkansas is a 4.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and SP+ Projections give Arkansas a 56% win probability.

Here are three reasons why Arkansas will win Saturday’s game and prove those odds correct.

Punt return wild card

Did Texas expose a fatal flaw in Mississippi State’s special teams?

Y'all should know... don't punt to @ryan_niblett 💨 pic.twitter.com/BMMGuLFZCI

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 25, 2025

The 79-yard punt return for a touchdown Texas had that tied last Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter was eyebrow-raising.

Punter Ethan Pulliam was being considered one of the best in the nation with a 47.8 average per punt and 12 punts of 50 yards or more.

But against Texas, a 57-yard punt doomed the Bulldogs. Simply put, he outkicked his coverage.

Arkansas hasn’t had any touchdowns on punt returns, but it does have a reigning All-American punt returner in that role.

Kam Shanks led the nation in punt return yards (329), average (20.6) and touchdowns (2) last season with UAB.

If Texas did expose a flaw, Shanks could be the one to benefit from it the most.

Taylen Green is special

Green leads the nation in yards of total offense with 2,781. A lot of that is passing (2,178), but the danger for Mississippi State is what he can do with his legs.

Through eight games, Green has amassed 603 rushing yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

“They've got a quarterback that is elite at everything that he does,” Lebby said. “Their ability to score and play great offensively is very well documented.”

The last time Green faced Mississippi State he had one of his best games with six touchdowns and almost 400 yards of total offense.

And if Arch Manning can find success running the ball (he did score a rushing touchdown against the Bulldogs), imagine what Green can do.

But Green won’t be the only Razorback to feast on the Bulldogs’ rush defense.

Arkansas can run the ball

The Razorbacks average more than 200 rushing yards per game and ranks second in the SEC and 22nd in the nation.

Mississippi State’s defense has gotten better at limiting opposing offenses’ rushing attacks and just held Texas to 72 rushing yards last week. But that was the only non-FCS opponent that hasn’t ran for at least 100 yards.

Arizona State ran for 251 yards, Tennessee had 131, Florida had 172 and Texas A&M had the most with 299. Even Northern Illinois (125 yards) and Southern Miss (102 yards) had success running the ball against Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks need to keep their defense off the field as much as possible and running the ball can do just that.