Numbers SEC Looked at for 2024 Regarding Razorback Football Simply Jarring

Long term look at Arkansas program puts them in company not thought by fans

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Jun 30, 2023 4:02 PM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – When the 2024 SEC schedule assignments came out a couple of weeks ago, it was a good time for Arkansas fans. As Matt Mitchell's football season YouTube channel "SEC Roll Call" hilariously pointed out, the rest of the league is a bit jealous of Arkansas and its 2024 draw.

As the reality of a sweetheart schedule that placates Razorback fans to the fullest began to sink in, the initial thought was that those terrible Chad Morris years, having the Battle Line Rivalry shoved down the Hogs' throat and that time spent in the Southwest Conference 30+ years ago finally had some sort of positive benefit. While all the old SEC schools spent decades fighting to claim Georgia and Alabama as their rivals, Arkansas got to claim Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas as can't cut games.

As for the formula to determine how the schedules played out, the better teams theoretically got tougher schedules, which, for once, had Arkansas fans excited about the failures of Morris. It was a time to bask in the work that had previously created so much misery.

However, there are two misconceptions here. The formula doesn't specifically say that teams with a lower winning conference winning percentage got easier schedules, and, even if it did, Morris would only be a small portion of the equation.

The official statement from the SEC reads "Balance of schedule strength was based on each school's conference winning percentage since the SEC last expanded in 2012." At face value, that simply reads that teams from the Top 8 were considered strong and teams from the Bottom 8 were considered weak and there was an effort to make sure each team got a dose of each half, plus a half of either Texas or Oklahoma.

We took the time to calculate the numbers the SEC looked at, and the results are a stunningly sober reality for the Arkansas program. The Razorbacks have been really bad at football.

Hog fans like to think of themselves as in a group with Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky. Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, the Razorbacks are nowhere near that group. Numbers don't lie, and they send a clear message – Arkansas is all alone in a distant tier at the bottom of the SEC with Vanderbilt, and doing all it can to keep the Commodores from walking out of the cellar.

SEC Wins Since 2012
TEAM	TOTAL WINS	POSSIBLE WINS	PERCENTAGE
Alabama	80	90	89%
Georgia	71	89	79.8%
Oklahoma*	73	98	74.5%
LSU	58	90	64.4%
Texas*	59	98	60.2%
Florida	54	90	60%
Texas A&M	48	89	53.8%
Auburn	44	90	48.9%
Mississippi State	42	90	46.7%
Missouri	41	90	45.6%
South Carolina	40	90	44.4%
Ole Miss	39	89	43.3%
Tennessee	35	90	38.9%
Kentucky	32	90	35.6%
Arkansas	23	90	25.6%
Vanderbilt	21	89	23.6%

If it weren't for a miracle filled season under Bret Bielema where Arkansas only went 8-5, but somehow pull off five wins in the SEC, Vanderbilt would be ahead of Arkansas over this span. It took a freakish 4th & 25 play against Ole Miss and an out of left field upset of No. 9 LSU to keep Arkansas from statistically being the worst SEC program over this period. That's not a Morris problem. He's just a blip on the radar. There are six seasons where the Razorbacks produced a total of five wins. That's a 10% winning percentage for over half a decade.

As for being in a group with Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Kentucky, it's not even close. All of those teams except Kentucky have roughly a 20% edge, just short of double the Hogs' win percentage. Even the Wildcats, a team that had horribly lean years in the beginning of this cycle, comes in with 50% more wins than Arkansas.

As for Texas, it should be noted the Longhorns piled up their numbers playing against the Big 12, which has numerous teams that couldn't finish in the top of the Sun Belt. There was even a time when Big 12 programs had to consider not scheduling the Sun Belt because they kept losing. Also, despite all the conference success, the Longhorns were so bad out of conference that losing seasons were regular and they developed a reputation as a failed program. To put it in perspective, despite how bad Arkansas was in the SEC, Texas still lost a pair of games to the Hogs by a combined score of 71-28, so the conference records of Texas and Oklahoma have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Missouri has to be viewed through a bit of a corrective lens also. The Tigers won 14 games in their second and third years in the SEC. Had the window extended to the two previous years, Arkansas would have had a big jump in win percentage also by catching a pair of Top 10 finishes at the end of the Bobby Petrino era. However, ignoring those Missouri years lowers their win percentage to 36% and their total wins would still be four more than Arkansas if Missouri spotted the Hogs the extra two seasons. It's also worth noting that a big chunk of the Tigers' SEC win percentage comes from a 7-2 record against the Razorbacks.

As depressing as those statistics are for Arkansas fans, the actual test as to where the Hogs fall on the hierarchy of the SEC comes by evaluating this decade. It's more germane to where programs actually are at this point and includes data that either directly or indirectly affects the players who will be on the field in 2024. It's here that the perception Arkansas fans have of their program as a whole falls closer to the actual numbers.

SEC Win Percentage since 2020
TEAM	TOTAL WINS	POSSIBLE WINS	WIN PERCENTAGE
Georgia	23	25	92%
Alabama	23	26	88.4%
Texas	18	26	69.2%
Texas A&M	14	25	56%
Ole Miss	14	25	56%
LSU	14	26	53.8%
Florida	13	26	50%
Tennessee	13	26	50%
Kentucky	12	26	46.2%
Oklahoma	12	26	46.2%
Auburn	11	26	42.3%
Mississippi State	11	26	42.3%
Missouri	11	26	42.3%
Arkansas	10	26	38.5%
South Carolina	9	26	34.6%
Vanderbilt	2	25	8%

Arkansas makes a pretty big jump in this case while a few other teams fall back. The Hogs' 10 SEC wins puts them in a tier with South Carolina, one spot below, and Missouri, Mississippi State and Auburn, each one spot above. Considering the difference between an SEC schedule and a Big 12 schedule, when adjusted for strength, it puts Oklahoma in that group also. For a team that's a once in a decade contender in the conference, that's not terrible company.

A full 30 percentage points below sits Vanderbilt. The Commodores appear to be on the rise under Clark Lea, but Arkansas doesn't belong in a dog fight with them for the cellar of the SEC. Yet, in putting together the 2024 schedule, the committee viewed Arkansas as one 4th & 25 miracle against Ole Miss away from having no difference between its program and Vanderbilt's.

The numbers don't lie. In the long run, Arkansas has been Vanderbilt since Bobby Petrino. However, Pittman has gone a long way in rebuilding the program from the deeper than people realized mess it was in post motorcycle accident.

How far he can carry it remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. Arkansas is no Vanderbilt, in the most positive of ways.