There’s No Escaping Vegas Win Total Odds for Razorbacks in Football

Hogs will be fighting for bowl eligibility and over/under win total until bitter end

Author:
Jacob Davis
Publish date:
Feb 10, 2024 12:00 PM EST

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The saying goes ‘Vegas knows.’ When it comes to sports betting analytics, returning production and recent history are just a few factors that go into over/under win totals.

Arkansas is looking to bounce back after a dismal 4-8 season with one conference victory. Fan Duel sees things panning out the same way for Sam Pittman’s Razorbacks, setting its win total at 5.5 victories.

It’s a crucial season for Pittman, who will likely be coaching for his job. Hiring Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator was tremendous news for the offense. An up and down recruiting cycle over the past three months has mellowed out the good will, if there even was any.

Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman on sidelines against Florida International — Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman during a win late in the 2023 season over Florida International and facing another difficult year.
(Nelson Chenault / USA TODAY Sports)

With the transfer portal, it’s made Arkansas more of an unknown for the coming football season. A new hand-picked quarterback, running back room without a star and a group full of unproven commodities at receiver limits expectations.

Another clear defensive improvement would be a cause for the Razorbacks to surpass the set win total. Defensive coordinator’s Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson inspired the Razorbacks’ defensive revival as they improved 75-100 spots in nearly all statistical categories.

The Hogs have three "easy" wins on paper with UAPB in Little Rock to start the season, UAB and Louisiana Tech. All three games will be played in the state.

That leaves Arkansas looking for three other wins to become bowl eligible and bettors to hit the over. For the first time since 1980, the Razorbacks and Oklahoma State will rekindle an old rivalry. The Hogs hold a 30-15 edge all-time but have only played in Stillwater twice in the past 26 matchups. The majority of games were played in Little Rock from 1950-1980.

Oklahoma State (over/under 7.5 wins) will have one of the nation’s most dangerous offenses in college football in 2024. The Cowboys return a seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman, sensational tailback Ollie Gordon and a FBS fourth highest returning production at 77%.

Razorbacks defensive coordinator Travis Williams during spring practice — Arkansas Razorbacks defensive coordinator Travis Williams working with the linebackers during spring practice March 28, 2023, on the outdoor practice fields in Fayetteville, Ark.
Andy Hodges / allHOGS Images

Stunning early season losses have taken place over the years in Stillwater. For Arkansas, though, breaking in an inexperienced team on the road in week two doesn’t sound promising.

A road game at Auburn (over/under 7.5 wins) inside Jordan-Hare Stadium won’t be an easy place to pull out a win. The Tigers return the fifth most talent in the SEC for 2024. Hugh Freeze has a history of making huge leaps in year two at previous destinations.

Texas A&M (over/under 8.5 wins) returns the most production in the SEC, No. 18 in college football. For Arkansas’ sake, they seem to play the Aggies close every year in Jerry’s World. That means the final neutral site matchup between the two programs will be a nail biter with the Razorbacks on the losing end.

The Hogs return home against Tennessee (over/under 8.5 wins) on October 5 with a giant opportunity for a fourth win. The Volunteers roster sits No. 12 in returning production while breaking in a new quarterback for the second straight season. Being at home, Arkansas might have an edge.

Mississippi State (over/under 4.5 wins) is unpredictable at this point returning the least amount of production in the SEC. A new coach, philosophies and turnover makes the Bulldogs immediate future bleak. Arkansas will play the ‘Dogs on October 26 likely sitting 3-4 overall. This one is about as a sure thing win for the Razorbacks as any on the schedule bringing Arkansas to four victories.

Bobby Petrino coaching Razorbacks in 2011 game with South Carolina — New Arkansas Razorbacks offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino on the sidelines when he was head coach in Fayetteville in 2011.
(Beth Hall / USA TODAY Sports)

Home games against LSU, Ole Miss and Texas certainly won’t be pick’ems. A road game at Missouri (over under 9.5 wins)the final week of the season likely has five win Arkansas looking for its sixth win at Missouri, a place its never won before.

With the line being in favor of Arkansas going under 5.5 wins, Vegas proves right for now. It just takes a while for the season to play out.

At five wins, that hands Pittman his third losing record in five seasons with the Razorbacks. That would give athletics director Hunter Yurachek something to chew on going into 2025.