Easier Razorback Schedule Includes Several Must-Win Games

Game by game breakdown says Arkansas has best chance in years to make a run in the SEC, topple reigns of Alabama, LSU

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Jul 3, 2023 1:06 PM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – On Sunday afternoon our own Andy Hodges took a look at the 2023 football schedule for the Arkansas Razorbacks and gave his perspective on things. Today that same schedule will receive a second set of eyes.

Hodges was right to break this down into four segments of three games each. It not only creates digestible chunks that align with the four quarters approach of a football game, it more accurately reflects how momentum can carry across sections of the schedule before shifting.

At first glance, it appears to be the most manageable schedule at Arkansas in a long time. However, it's a year that looks much different than it did when glancing ahead at this point last season. For starters, no one could foresee an ill-fitting Brian Kelly getting things together so quickly at LSU. Also, as Hodges mentioned yesterday, so little is known about this Razorback team that there's no way to make true predictions. That being said, let's dive as deep as possible into what is known.

FIRST QUARTER

Sept. 2 – WESTERN CAROLINA, Little Rock, Ark., 3 p.m. (SEC+ / ESPN+)

There's no way this game should be a sell-out despite the small size of War Memorial Stadium. Not only is this an FCS team coming to town, but it's most likely going to be in the 90s on those shadeless hot metal bleachers. The only reason for anyone to go out and brave the weather is that it is appropriately being shown only on streaming, which means a lot of Arkansas fans won't be able to see it otherwise.

As for the Catamounts, this is a team coming off a 6-5 season that includes a win over a ranked Tennessee-Chatanooga team to close the season. If last year is an indicator, it will be a solid test for this newly constructed defense. Western Carolina averaged nearly 200 yards rushing and 300 yards passing. However, a loss here could have Citadel under Jack Crowe implications.

The Razorbacks will be unveiling its Dan Enos offense that will give quarterback KJ Jefferson his first opportunity to make reads while under center. The veteran QB has said he likes calling signals under center more than in the shotgun now that he has gotten used to it, so seeing how he adapts and getting a glimpse into what Arkansas has at the receiver position will be the main reason fans watch.

The biggest positive is that if Sam Pittman has to give up a recruiting weekend to have a game in Little Rock, at least it's at the beginning of the season when heat and timing mean few prospects were likely to visit. Even if they did, it would be much harder to ensure a strong, positive experience. Standing on a boiling hot football field as fans wilt in the stands isn't the best way to create a memorable impression.

Sept. 9 – KENT STATE, Fayetteville, Ark., 3 p.m. (SECN)

In a trend that sees Arkansas slowly build its way up to SEC play, the Razorbacks step up a level by hosting its first Division I team of the year with the MAC's Kent State coming to town for another early season 3 p.m. game. For a chunk of the Razorback fandom, this will be the first chance to watch what Pittman is running out onto the field.

The Golden Flashes finished 5-7 last year, opening with blowout losses to Washington and Oklahoma, but a strong showing against eventual national champion Georgia that wasn't put away until the final five minutes should be more than enough to keep Arkansas and its fans from overlooking this game.

Kent State plays at Central Florida 10 days before, which does nothing to help the Razorbacks other than offering a few extra days to break down film. The Golden Flashes might be the most balanced team on the schedule offensively. Last season, Kent State averaged 203 yard rushing and 215 yards passing. Typically, it takes 30 points to hold them off, so this will be a good test to see if the offense is up to the challenge of keeping pace while giving a solid glimpse into whether the defense can be patient with its reads when the play could go either way.

Again, this is a game fans are going to expect to win. If Arkansas isn't 2-0 at this point, the weather won't be the only thing that's warm at the conclusion of this weekend.

Sept. 16 – BYU, Fayetteville, Ark., 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Finally, Arkansas gets a night game on the schedule. While the expectation will be for the Razorbacks to finish out the first quarter of the season undefeated, the real pressure will be on the fans. Last season, BYU went out of its way to roll out the red carpet and treat Arkansas fans with the highest levels of hospitality. Now it will be on the Razorback faithful to return the kindness.

Technically, Arkansas will be taking on a Big XII school, although it will be hard to think of it that way. And while we're being technical about everything, the Razorbacks serve as the warm-up game before the Cougars play their first ever game in their new conference in Kansas the following week.

BYU got off to a hot start last season before a string of games against Notre Dame, Arkansas and Liberty sent the Cougars crashing to a four-game losing streak. However, the Razorbacks won't be following the Irish this time. There will be no one softening BYU this year. There's also no Puca Nacua on the Cougars' roster to pull down over 140 yard receiving either.

Quarterback Jaren Hall is also gone, clearing the way for what could be USC/Pittsburgh transfer Kedon Slovis to likely take the reins.

SECOND QUARTER

Sept. 23 – LSU, Baton Rouge, La., TBD

Looking ahead at the other college football games this particular week, it's a very solid line-up. Normally, Arkansas vs. LSU early in the season would get prime positioning, but you've got Nick Saban vs. Lane Kiffin, Texas vs. Baylor, Texas A&M vs. Auburn in what will be the big return of Hugh Freeze to the SEC, Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati, Deion Sanders coaching his first Pac 12 game, Florida State at Clemson in what might turn out to be the defacto ACC championship game and the debuts of the new Big XII teams.

This is the first of three games that will give fans a strong idea as to where this team truly is. It's also a battle to see who the top dog at quarterback in the SEC will be as KJ Jefferson squares off with the Tigers' Jayden Daniels.

The lazy thing to do would be to say that Arkansas might be "that darned team" for Brian Kelly much like Texas A&M is for Nick Saban. After all, the Razorbacks nearly took out LSU last season with a pair of back-up quarterbacks. LSU clung to a 13-10 lead for nearly the entire fourth quarter before narrowly escaping Fayetteville with a win.

However, this is a completely different roster and coaching staff. Whatever baffled Brian Kelly last season will likely not be the case this year. The one ace Pittman has in his back pocket is neither the LSU coaching staff, nor its players have coached a game against Jefferson, or this particular set of offensive and defensive coaches. Gone are former Razorbacks Greg Brooks, Jr. and Joe Foucha, so the Tigers don't even have someone who can say he's at least practiced against Jefferson.

By this point, the Arkansas quarterback should have figured out who he can count on at receiver and built up a good chemistry. Instead, this game could come down to what kind of development has managed to take place at linebacker and tight end.

If Pittman finds a way to come out of this with a win, it could make for an interesting next two weeks. A loss could reveal a weakness that will need to be fixed quickly. It's tough to say it when it comes to opening conference play against the reigning division champions, but this game may show everything there is to know about how the rest of the season will unfold.

Sept. 30 – TEXAS A&M, Arlington, Texas, TBD

Win or lose against LSU, there will be no emotional hangover heading into this game. Jefferson has had this game circled on the calendar since the final seconds ticked off the clock in Arlington last season. There is no way the Arkansas quarterback won't have himself and this team fully focused and in full destruction mode as he looks to right a wrong from last season's fluke loss to the Aggies.

This could very well be the game of the season. Not only will there be an attempt to rectify the goal line fumble return that flipped the entire game, but this will be Part II of a showdown between Jefferson and Bobby Petrino. Last year, Jefferson and running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders had to pull out all of the stops to hold off Petrino in Fayetteville in front of an electric crowd in against an FCS roster. Now the pair will be asked to pull out another win over the infamous former Arkansas coach who will be guiding an offense with the best players money can buy in front of a split house.

If Freeze pulls out a win in his SEC re-debut with Auburn the week before and Jefferson gets his revenge, then it might be the beginning of the end for Fisher in College Station. If the Aggies somehow win both, then A&M fans could become more obnoxious than the 2012 Johnny Manziel year when they shocked everyone by tying South Carolina for fifth place in the SEC.

Oct. 7 – OLE MISS, Oxford, Miss., TBD

No need to pay attention to last season's blowout of the Rebels. That has nothing to do with the upcoming season. The biggest reason is because Arkansas catches Ole Miss earlier in the year.

Last year, Lane Kiffin was too tied up with trying to figure out if he was going to move to Auburn to worry about getting ready for the Razorbacks. That won't be the case this season. It will be too early for the annual Kiffin rose ceremony to have any effect.

By this point in time, the quarterback situation in Oxford should be ironed out. The battle between Spencer Sanders, Jaxon Dart and Walker Howard will sharpen whomever ultimately claims control of the team. However, the Arkansas defense should be rounding into shape by this point in the season also.

The biggest concern is an emotional letdown following the A&M game, especially if the Hogs lose. If Pittman's team drops the LSU game and then loses another tight one to the Aggies, it will set up a perfect storm where the odds of knocking off Ole Miss in Oxford go way down.

HALFTIME ANALYSIS: It's as easy to envision this team being undefeated in early October as it is to picture the Razorbacks going 2-4. A bounce of the ball here and there could turn this into the rise of Sam Pittman, elevating him to the status of nationally respected coach, or, grease the wheels for an early retirement trip to Hot Springs. That's kind of the fun of this season. There's no reasonable way to have expectations. Everyone is walking around blind right now.

THIRD QUARTER

Oct. 14 – ALABAMA, Tuscaloosa, Ala., TBD

Welcome to the final road game of what will be a stretch of 34 consecutive days without a game played in Fayetteville. What time of day this game eventually takes place will say all there is to know about how the season has gone to this point. It might also say a lot about how things are going for Alabama.

This game couldn't be more perfectly positioned for Arkansas. The Tide travel to College Station the week before and host Tennessee the following week in what should be a big game. However, it's very possible that the circumstances in this game could be flipped. Looking at the Alabama schedule and considering the problems Nick Saban has at quarterback, the Crimson Tide are staring down potential losses against Texas, Ole Miss, at Mississippi State and at A&M.

The odds are fairly equal that Arkansas could run into a sliding Alabama team desperate to get back on the wagon or the old school Tide team looking to reclaim its luster from Georgia. History suggests Alabama is closer to the former. There has been a bit of a drop-off in Tuscaloosa lately and teams are starting to smell blood.

Arkansas has closed the gap considerably on Alabama. The Hogs were down 28-23 and looking to take the lead in the fourth quarter last season before the defense suddenly forgot how to stop the run. The year before, Saban's squad had to hold on for a 42-35 win in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is no longer an automatic loss on the Arkansas schedule. This may be the last chance the Razorbacks get to end the losing streak against Saban. The Crimson Tide aren't on the 2024 schedule and no one knows how many more years he will coach. If Saban faces Arkansas again, scheduling dictates he would most likely be at least 74 before it happens.

Oct. 21 – MISSISSIPPI STATE, Fayetteville, Ark., TBD

It's the last game before November and Arkansas fans are just now getting their first truly meaningful game in Fayetteville. Unfortunately, it's against a Mississippi State team that has been perpetually pesky when it comes to facing Arkansas.

As has been stated before, if Bulldogs' quarterback Will Rogers even catches a glimpse of a Razorback logo, Mississippi State records immediately start to fall. Rogers has thrown for over 400 yards each time he's faced Arkansas and has pitched in four touchdown passes in 2021 and another three this past season.

The only time we saw Mississippi State on the field under Zach Arnett, the offense stumbled out to a 10-3 deficit against Illinois before Rogers pulled the team together with 16 points in the fourth quarter that included a field goal and a defensive fumble return in the final minute of the game to avoid going to overtime.

Nothing from that game should be taken as an indicator of what the Bulldogs can do this season. That game was played just a few days after the shocking death of head coach Mike Leach. Mississippi State shouldn't have been on the field, but it is admirable that the players chose to go through with it. It says even more that they found a way to pull it out in the end.

Arnett has an off-week before the Arkansas game to prepare, so this won't be a case of a team not being able to fully get ready to face an entirely new defensive and offensive scheme. No matter how the season plays out, this lone Saturday in October will be huge in determining how satisfied Arkansas fans are with the results.

Nov. 4 – FLORIDA, Gainesville, Fla., TBD

Welcome back to the road Arkansas. Hope you enjoyed that one game at home. For those doing the math, the Razorbacks only have one game in Fayetteville between Sept. 17 and Nov. 10. That's a bit absurd

When the season ended last winter, the chatter around the Gators' program made it sound like Florida was on its way to having its own semi Chad Morris moment, although a Morris level in The Swamp is 6-7, which is what the Razorbacks' record would have been last year if Jefferson hadn't played out of his mind in the Liberty Bowl and salvaged an overtime win over Kansas.

But life in Florida has changed since that dreadful trip to Las Vegas. It's now highly unlikely that Billy Napier fails to make it to the Arkansas game following a dominating performance on the recruiting trail. There are plans for a blackout when Arkansas visits which should create an interesting atmosphere.

There is potential for a favorable trap situation for the Razorbacks. The week before, Florida travels to Jacksonville to take on Georgia in their annual rivalry game. LSU gets the Gators the week after Arkansas, which is a bit of a rivalry on its own and could set up to be a huge game in Florida's eyes if the Tigers can somehow build on the success of the previous season.

There's a lot of hope that this could be the most winnable game of the three in this quarter, but never has so little been known about two SEC teams heading into the season. With just short of no history between the two schools, there's not even anything to build off. The few times they have played, it's been remembered for referees rather than Florida.

THIRD QUARTER

Nov. 11 – AUBURN, Fayetteville, Ark., TBD

Worst case scenario at this point is that Arkansas hits the final stretch with a 4-5 record. Hunter Yuracheck didn't become the Razorback athletics director with the highest favorabilty rating of the past 60 years by suffering mediocrity. It's what got Mike Anderson fired despite winning over 62% of his games.

At the very least, Pittman needs to show that after all the staff changes, this team is going to show improvement. Reaching this point with a 4-5 record would mean having to win out. That would include knocking off Hugh Freeze, which didn't go so well last season with presumably less talent at Liberty.

There are no games serving as a buffer on the schedule to hide the Razorbacks. The Tigers play Vanderbilt the week before and New Mexico State afterward, so the spotlight will be solely on an Arkansas team that returning Auburn players will want revenge upon for last year's loss. As for Freeze, it was a win over the Hogs that put him back in the national spotlight and made him a much stronger candidate at Auburn after whatever happened with the Lane Kiffin situation. Considering how much the Tigers' brass liked his win over Arkansas the year before, he will be looking to bask in the glow of doing it again, this time with Auburn players.

This is going to be a difficult game to win. However, depending on how things go, it might evolve into an absolute must-win for Arkansas.

Nov. 18 – FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, Fayetteville, Ark., TBD

This team lost to a combination of Western Kentucky, UNT, Florida Atlantic and Texas-El Paso by a total score of 217-27. If Arkansas loses this game, Pittman may fire himself.

This should be a great chance to see Jacolby Criswell and Malachi Singleton run the offense. There should also be a chance to get a little bit of a jump on developing for the future at other positions while evaluating who might need a nudge toward the portal to continue building the talent level on the team and assessing future needs.

Nov. 24 – MISSOURI, Fayetteville, Ark., 3 p.m. (CBS)

When it comes to SEC play, there is only one legitimate must-win game. The sad thing is it shouldn't be. This nonsense with Missouri must be stopped. It's embarrassing to continue struggling with a program as run down as Mizzou.

This should be a beat down of of epic proportions that sees Jefferson set records for a half and then allows him a hero's exit on senior day after the first drive of the third quarter. History says that for some befuddling reason that probably won't happen, but there should never be a year when this game is in question or in danger of being lost by Arkansas.

Yes, absolutely no one on this side of the fence cares about this game. However, apathy can't keep leading to losses that should never happen. The Tigers can keep the silly trophy if it actually means something to them. The Hogs just need the win so the Razorbacks can move forward to a game that is valued by the people of Arkansas.

FINAL ANALYSIS – So that wraps it up. There are five games on this schedule that Arkansas should win no matter what's gone on with the transition. The remaining seven games can go anywhere from not winning one to winning them all. While it would have been surprising for that to be the case last season either way, it wouldn't be shocking to see either situation play out in 2023.

It's going to be a year like 2021 was, where an inch here or a certain bounce there determines a feeling of success or failure. Chances are obviously higher that this teams ends up between six and 11 wins, but it's definitely the most favorable schedule in a long time. No one team feels unbeatable, so anything can happen.

It will definitely be intriguing. What will happen week to week will feel like a mystery all the way through. This will be a turning point in the program one way or another. This staff has the recruiting chops to build a consistent winner, but only if the wins come this season. If it doesn't, then someone else will find themselves building a winner here at some point, because without growth this season, it's going to be hard to get out of the mud going forward.