New Rule Plays into Hogs Hand at First Glance, But Could Be Downfall

Razorback games will be decidedly shorter this year; how Pittman handles that will determine ultimate success, failure

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Sep 1, 2023 5:09 AM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Anyone who watched the Florida Gators desperately scramble to come back late in a 24-11 loss to Utah Friday night got a first-hand look at how dangerous a new rule that should favor the Arkansas Razorbacks can be. That is, assuming head coach Sam Pittman and offense coordinator Dan Enos learn how to not only utilize it, but also combat it.

Unless a player runs out of bounds, the clock no longer stops on first down outside the final two minutes of each half. This means with a powerful quarterback and one of the greatest assemblies of running backs in college football history, the Hogs are a nightmare waiting to happen for opponents. Perhaps no team in all of college football is more suited to drain the clock and suck the wind out of high-powered offenses.

Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, as will soon be proven, perhaps no team is more suited to create its own downfall either. Here's how that happens.

Arkansas has traditionally been a first down machine. To put things in perspective, last year against Alabama, the Razorbacks racked up 27 first downs. Meanwhile, the Tide only managed 17. Stopping the clock previously saved 15-20 seconds that are no longer part of the equation.

The Hogs accounted for three first downs to close the first half and that was it as far as first downs in the final two minutes of each half. Assuming 1-out-of-10 first downs result in someone running out of bounds, that allows for time to stop four additional times for a total of seven. That means the clock stopped 37 more times in the game last year than it would this year should it play out the same way again.

Even if we're being ultra conservative by saying only an average of 10 more seconds would have come off the clock without the stoppage for first down, that's over six minutes of extra time. There are 16 plays in the first half where the clock stopped when it wouldn't have. Again, being conservative, let's assume players ran out of bounds twice. That runs 140 seconds off the clock.

While it's not apples to apples because different decisions would have been made, in this case, Arkansas goes into the half down 28-0 instead of 28-7 because KJ Jefferson never gets to lead the Razorbacks down the field on that last drive to end the half.

In the second half, 20 first downs stopped the clock that wouldn't have under the new rule. Two are assumed to result in someone running out of bounds, leaving 180 seconds of clock to run off. Unfortunately for Arkansas, those back-to-back-to-back touchdowns didn't take place in the final three minutes of the game. This means the Hogs would have lost 49-19 had nothing changed. It wasn't much different than the 49-26 outcome.

What this little experiment shows is the double-edged sword Arkansas faces. If the Razorbacks get out front, it will be much easier to milk the clock and slowly squeeze the hope and life out of opponents.

However, if the Dan Enos offense relies on long methodical drives with numerous first downs the way the Kendal Briles offense did, the rule can become the team's undoing if the Hogs fall behind. Going 80 yards while racking up six or seven first downs may have been a winning formula before, but such an approach will make it almost impossible to catch up if down multiple scores under the new rules.

Sam Pittman's best hope as head coach is to demand balance. This team is going to have to be quick strike through the air when trailing by more than a touchdown because opponents can salt away multiple possessions on a single drive now. On the other hand, if the Razorbacks lead by more than a touchdown, there may be no team better equipped to make it impossible to come back as the clock refuses to stop.

Pittman has had a lot to learn on the fly as a head coach over the past four years. This is just one more thing he has to wrap his mind around. If he does, the fourth quarter will feel a lot like things did back when the baseball team would "Call the Kopps" to close games. Nothing could be closer to a done deal.

If for some reason he doesn't, then this is one rule that is going to infuriate every Hog fan from Pea Ridge to Dermott. Nothing is worse than knowing the game is over eight minutes before it actually is with nothing to do but watch time slip away.