South Carolina vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks are 0-3 in SEC play this season, blowing a lead to the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 5 for their third straight loss. South Carolina is out of the conversation for a College Football Playoff spot heading into a Week 6 road date with the No. 16 Florida Gators.

While South Carolina has lost to three quality teams in Mississippi State, Alabama and Kentucky, oddsmakers aren’t expecting it to compete with a Gators team that is coming off a tough loss to Missouri in Week 5.

Florida is a 12.5-point favorite at home, and Jon Sumrall’s group is looking to bounce back after scoring just 17 points in a blowout loss to Mizzou. Star running back Jadan Baugh had just 12 carries for 13 yards in the loss, dropping him way out of the Heisman Race despite Florida’s 4-0 start.

The Gators’ best win of the season came against a solid Ole Miss team in Week 4, and they’re looking to prove that they belong in the mix to win the SEC – and reach the College Football Playoff – in 2026.

Both of these teams have some shaky EPA/Play numbers on defense, so could we see a shootout on Saturday?

Here’s a full preview of this SEC battle, including the latest odds, a player to watch and my game prediction.

South Carolina vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

South Carolina +12.5 (-105)
Florida -12.5 (-115)

Moneyline

South Carolina: +410
Florida: -550

Total

62.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

South Carolina vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
Time: 12:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
South Carolina record: 2-3
Florida record: 4-1

South Carolina vs. Florida Key Player to Watch

Jadan Baugh, Running Back, Florida

Baugh dropped from +1200 to +8000 to win the Heisman after Florida’s Week 5 loss, and it’s hard to see him getting back in the mix for the award without multiple big-time games in SEC play.

After the loss to Mizzou, Baugh actually texted Sumrall to apologize for his play, but the Florida offense as a whole struggled, putting up just 17 points.

Sumrall says RB Jadan Baugh texted him Sunday and apologized for not being his best Saturday. Sumrall said it was a team effort, #Gators didn't help Baugh much either. Sumrall said no health concerns for Baugh.
— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) October 5, 2026

It should have a much easier time against the Gamecocks, who are just 93rd in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on defense and 108th in defensive success rate.

Baugh has 95 carries for 613 yards, and 11 scores this season, adding five catches for 35 yards in the passing game. Last season, Baugh had 1,170 rushing yards and eight scores, and he should shatter both of those totals in 2026.

South Carolina is just 90th in the country in EPA/Rush, so this is shaping up to be a perfect bounce-back spot for the junior running back.

South Carolina vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

This game features one of the higher totals in Week 6, and for good reason.

South Carolina’s defense ranks outside the top 90 in adjusted EPA/Play, defensive success rate, EPA/Pass, EPA/Rush and third/fourth down success rate in 2026. The Gators are no better, ranking 103rd in adjusted EPA/Play, 125th in defensive success rate and 127th in third/fourth down success rate.

So, bettors shouldn’t expect either team to be able to get stops on Saturday.

South Carolina may be 0-3 in SEC play, but Sellers is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country, leading the Gamecocks to the No. 3 offense in adjusted EPA Play while ranking inside the top 50 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush.

So, South Carolina should be able to move the ball against the Gators, and it has scored exactly 34 in two of three SEC games in 2026. In those three games, South Carolina has combined for 75, 67 and 69 points.

Meanwhile, the Gators are No. 2 in the country in adjusted EPA Play on offense, ranking third in EPA/Pass and 21st in overall success rate. Florida has scored at least 44 points in every win in the 2026 season.

The Gators have combined for over 62.5 points in three of their five games (two of their three SEC games) while just falling short (62 points) of this number in the loss to Mizzou.

I’m expecting a shootout between these squads in Week 6.

Pick: OVER 62.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google