So How Much Crow Will Have to Be Eaten in Review of Preseason Razorback Predictions

Looking back on Arkansas season, where it looked like it was headed versus the dramatic downhill slalom it turned out to be, further highlights insanity of what transpired

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Nov 27, 2023 6:24 PM EST

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Perhaps the most humbling part of the job is trying to take the 10-20 minutes here and there the media is allowed to see the Razorbacks as they get ready for the season and use what is bare basic drills to predict how the season will go.

In most cases, trends from the previous season help, but with so much turnover with players and coaches at Arkansas, it was a crap shoot at best. Just pick either of those words to describe how the predictions went because either describes the typical verbal reactions. Even the original subhead of the story referenced this being the most mysterious team of the Sam Pittman regime.

Our other three writers picked alongside me, but I'm not one to put others in harm's way unnecessarily, so their predictions have been deleted. If they want to evaluate their predictions, then so be it, but I am here mostly because of one very specific prediction that, honestly, seemed the safest call of them all – Missouri.

As we will see along this journey in time to a world where Arkansas could block, Raheim Sanders was a potential Heisman candidate and KJ Jefferson was in a legitimate discussion with Jayden Daniels for the best quarterback in the SEC, there's no way anyone could have seen the disaster that unfolded. However, even though they're in fun to kill the slow days of summer more than anything, it's time to follow up a fully digested Thanksgiving meal with a healthy dose of humble pie.

Game 1

An image shows the Arkansas Razorback and Western Carolina logos with the game time and location.

Smith:
The biggest concern about this game is getting players out of Little Rock safely. The Western Carolina coach said one of the biggest worries he has about his team is whether they can tackle and the video out of North Carolina so far shows they can't. Expect Raheim Sanders to have a huge first half and then get shut down. KJ Jefferson will put up modest numbers while getting just enough attempts to get tape on his chemistry with receivers in game action and how well he does at making reads. The third quarter should be a heavy dose of AJ Green, Rashod Dubinion and Dominique Johnson with a side of Jacolby Criswell. That should leave room for Isaiah Augustave and Malachi Singleton to round out the final 8-10 minutes of the contest.
I didn't see enough out of the secondary in the offseason to feel great about what's going on there. There were plenty of highlights of big plays burning defensive starters. However, the defensive line should feast often. Considering how slow the Catamounts look on film, Isaiah Sategna gets a shot to make a few big returns and possibly breaks one. I don't think the clock gets stopped enough to put this one in the 50s.
Arkansas 45, Western Carolina 17
FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 56, Western Carolina 13

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Let's soak this one in for a minute because this is as accurate as things got. The final score was 56-13. However, no running backs individually ran wild, which should have been an immediate red flag. Raheim Sanders led the team with 53 yards on 15 carries while Jefferson threw for 246 and three touchdowns. Augustave did get into the game and Criswell had a brief appearance. However, Singleton wasn't seen all season despite having a brilliant touch on his passes. This was really the only time we saw receivers down field. By the time conference play started, a concern I brought up as soon as the newest crop of receivers got signed out of the portal came to roost. Other than Andrew Armstrong, there didn't appear to be SEC speed in the receiver room unless Isaiah Sategna was going to develop into an efficient route runner and build quickness to go along with his straight line track speed.

SMITH:
Kent State might be on par or slightly worse than Western Carolina despite not being an FCS team. Sanders gets his carries because he's a Heisman candidate, but he's still going to be out of this one early with the four guys behind him racking up tons of yards. However, Jefferson will get more passing attempts than the previous game as Enos has him working on specific aspects of his game and works to slowly ramp him up toward conference play. Because of this, Jefferson gets a series or two in the second half before Criswell takes over. This might be a chance to display what Luke Hasz has at tight end. Still, this will be another vanilla game as Enos keeps everything under the vest with LSU in mind.
The defense will look a bit better, but it will still be hard to tell how good they actually are. There may be minor shifting in the secondary as Travis Williams attempts to get a better feel for who is a true gamer. If bad habits keep up and defenders prove to be unteachable, it's possible someone pushing from the second team such as Jaylon Braxton could find playing time.
Arkansas 38, Kent State 7
FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 28, Kent State 6

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Technically, a couple of us were close on the point spread, but way overestimated how productive this offense would be. This was the first time it truly became evident this offensive line wasn't willing to block for anyone in the backfield. There were no 100 yard rushers in this game and Jefferson only threw for 136 yards.
No one could have foreseen how bad this offensive line turned out to be, but this was where discussions of concern began to take place in the allHogs offices. That lack of knowledge tainted pretty much every prediction here.

Things were way too close for Criswell to get a chance to throw the ball around early in the second half, but the prediction that freshman defensive back Jaylon Braxton would eventually push his way into the starting line-up turned out to be true.

SMITH:
If there is going to be a move in the secondary, it will take place this game. There's no going back after this. The starters need the work before LSU and Pittman has already shown with players he was willing to watch get beat over and over last season that he's not going to pull anyone out of the starting line-up on defense no matter how bad they play.
The offense opens up a little more this game. The Hogs come out a little overconfident following last seasons's win and how things went the first couple of games. That coupled with Enos' desire to keep the offense as scaled back as possible while still getting a win will have the Hogs running from behind early. However, Jefferson finds his stride with the receivers and we see a little of the old Jefferson and his running ability. He and Sanders play the entire game, although it's one of the back-up running backs who provides the breathing room down the stretch. Either Hudson Clark or Dwight McGlothern gets an interception that sets up a long field goal by Cam Little with just over a minute left for the Razorbacks to solidify the win. The game ends on a big sack and fumble recovery.
Arkansas 34, BYU 24
FINAL SCORE: BYU 38, Arkansas 31

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

The final score was 38-31 in favor of BYU, so technically, there was a lot of accuracy in the Arkansas score. Even though no one realized it, this was the first clue that this team simply didn't have what it takes in home games. It was also a preview of things to come for a defense that could bring it on the road, but outside of the Mississippi State game couldn't keep people out of the end zone in Fayetteville.
In my defense, I was correct in assuming BYU wasn't good enough to beat the team we thought would be coming into Razorback Stadium that day. The Cougars finished with a losing record as Arkansas joined Southern Utah and Sam Houston State as three of their five wins.

SMITH:
I just can't bring myself to believe in LSU under Brian Kelly, especially after how poorly his team performed against the Razorbacks with KJ Jefferson out and the worst pass defense in college football. If Jefferson is healthy, that game is a blowout. Just like Missouri has somehow become a team that finds a way to beat Arkansas no matter how much worse the Tigers are than the Razorbacks most years, the Hogs have that same aura with LSU. Jefferson will be healthy this time around and half of what the Tigers see from the offense will not have been prepared for because it hasn't been allowed on film yet.
It's just as likely LSU comes into the game 1-2 as they do 3-0 with games against Florida State and Mississippi State preceding the Hogs. The Tigers show up missing a key player somewhere because of injury and Jayden Daniels continues his inability to avoid sacks, matching the seven sacks he took last year on a miserable rainy night in Baton Rouge. A non-stop dose of the Hogs' ground game along with a monster game from the defensive line turns out to be the difference in what will either be a shocker of a Top 5 team or the further burial of an LSU team falling fast.
Arkansas 24, LSU 10
FINAL SCORE: LSU 34, Arkansas 31

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

We were all over the place on this one. Arkansas lost 34-31, so, really, no one got close. Had I known this was going to be a night game, I would have given the Tigers the slight edge, but I foolishly assumed this would be deserving of a 2:30 p.m time slot. LSU came in 2-1 and we were right to not fully believe in a Brian Kelley led team in Baton Rouge as best in the West at season's end. Jefferson being healthy did make a difference as he dueled back and forth with Daniels.
The one thing that surprises me the most looking back on this is the false trend of how productive the Arkansas offense was at the time. Sure, it wasn't the 40+ points regularly seen the year before, but 28, 31 and 31 put up while showing improvement in scoring as the opponents got better was a reason for optimism. You kinda have to wonder if the Razorbacks had held on how much such a big win might have changed the season. Then again, perhaps Florida showed how that works.

SMITH:
Welcome to a battle of undefeated teams as No. 14 Texas A&M faces off against No. 18 Arkansas in Arlington in what is being billed as a revenge game for both Jefferson and former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino. This game lives up to the instant classic hype that seems to always happen when these two teams meet. The Razorbacks and their balanced offense dominate the game while the defense flips three and outs on the Aggies 75% of the game. The only problem is, every fourth drive or so, Petrino figures out a way to find a huge play that puts points on the board to keep things close. He even hits one on a deep route over the middle where the secondary gets lost on a double move to put A&M up 37-34 with just over a minute left.
However, Jefferson wills his way into field goal range almost single-handedly as he refuses to lose again. He carries four guys on a 7-yard run that sets up Little for a 52-yard field goal to force overtime. On 3rd & Goal from the nine, Jefferson slips out of a tackle and is able to flip the ball to Sanders in the flat while being tackled. Sanders makes a sprint for the corner, then cuts back hard to his left at the last second and carries an Aggie with him into the end zone.
Petrino matches and we're headed to double overtime. This time Connor Weigman threads the needle to go up by a touchdown, 51-44. Sanders then takes one off tackle against a tired defense and scores on the second play. Pittman decides he's ending this one for good, putting the ball in the hands of a determined Jefferson.
Jefferson scrambles of the pocket and throws a frozen rope across his body to a leaping Isaac TeSlaa who is hit coming down and tries to get his toe down just inside the back line of the end zone. The refs initially rule his foot came down out of bounds, but the replay shows it's close. The people of Arkansas see blades of green grass being touched before the drop of his heel puts him on the line. Aggie fans are wondering what's taking so long. After five minutes of watching it from every angle and the announcers changing their mind five times, it's ruled there's no enough conclusive evidence to overrule and Arkansas suffers its first loss.
Texas A&M 51, Arkansas 50, 2OT
FINAL SCORE: Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 22

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

I have to admit I am stunned to look back and see the score was this close. It certainly felt like Arkansas lost by at least 20 from the friendly confines of the AT&T Stadium press box. That's probably because the defense put up one of the touchdowns and the last came on a 48-yard pass play late in the fourth quarter when things were well out of hand. It also felt much worse as offensive coordinator Dan Enos' e-mails to University of Arkansas students became public, showing they were written at a time when he was supposed to be reviewing film of what went wrong against the Aggies to prepare for Ole Miss.
Still, the idea that I thought these two teams would be undefeated coming into this game hints that this one might have been written late at night. The one thing I was able to tell for sure while watching practices was the Arkansas defense would be much improved and the tight end situation was going to be in great hands with Luke Hasz. I also thought the best roster money could buy would get a big boost from Bobby Petrino being in the room, so I can kinda see how I thought that might be.
However, the Hasz injury changed everything for the receiving group.
Also, I appear to have bought into the sheer size of the receivers. I thought they would use their ability to block out defenders and catch balls thrown high to create a big advantage. Let the record show I was terribly wrong in that case. The other thing I was wrong about was how much potential the defense had to improve. I didn't see them holding A&M to 34 while putting up a touchdown of their own. I also didn't see Jefferson no longer being able to play as the bulling brute he showed the two seasons before.

SMITH:
Arkansas is emotionally deflated. Ole Miss is physically beat up after Alabama and LSU back-to-back. This is an ugly, sloppy game. Also, after taking a beating against A&M, Jefferson tries to play at 70%, but is only able to go for just over a quarter. This one heads into halftime with Ole Miss up 7-3. Criswell brings fresh energy and the Hogs score to go up 10-7 in the third. He also produces a couple of other good drives, but the end in a fumble and an interception. Ole Miss ties it after a penalty on third and long gives an automatic first down and a busted play puts them in field goal range.
Special teams gives up a long punt return and Quinshon Judkins gets free with about 40 seconds left to set Ole Miss up at the 21. Kiffin calls three straight runs that moves the ball up to the 14 and the Rebels kick the game winner as time expires.
Ole Miss 13, Arkansas 10
FINAL SCORE: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 20

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

There's a lot that's right, just not exactly. It was the fans who were emotionally deflated heading into this game. Jefferson did take a beating all season. It's worth a look later on to see if he became the most sacked Power Five quarterback of all time.
He eventually did go down to injury early in a game, it was just against Missouri, and Criswell provided a certain degree of energy, it was just too late in the season for those around him to really care to rally.
I was certainly right about penalties being a major issue for this team and Arkansas being sloppy. A couple of false starts deep in Ole Miss territory in the third quarter were probably the difference in the game as Arkansas managed to waste 2nd & Goal at the 4-yard line.
Also, the prediction of a penalty late that would cost Arkansas the game was absolutely correct. Arkansas held Ole Miss to 3rd & 15 on their own 28, then gave the Rebels the first down with back-to-back penalties, an offsides and then a roughing the passer penalty. That allowed Jaxon Dart to drive to the Arkansas 2-yard line for a late field goal. Arkansas followed with an interception, overall, not far off on this one.

SMITH:
Jefferson misses this game because of swelling on his knee. Criswell does his best and the backs do what they can to keep Arkansas in it, but it's Alabama. For the first time all season, the choice of size over speed at wide receiver begins to catch up as the Tide secondary gets good positioning and knocks passes away on the regular. Things get exciting as Sanders breaks one early and Sategna slips a tackle that turns into a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but that's all the Hogs are able to muster.
Alabama 42, Arkansas 14
FINAL SCORE: Alabama 24, Arkansas 21

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

I was terribly wrong on this one, but I dare anyone to explain how this game even happened. That being said, I came close to nailing the Arkansas side on this. The Razorbacks only mustered one more touchdown and Sategna did have a touchdown reception late in the third. That's practically the fourth quarter. A running back also scored a touchdown, but it was Rashod Dubinion and it was in the fourth quarter. Again, had I known how improved the defense was going to be up until there became no point in trying, I would have picked this one closer, but not that much closer. Maybe 31-14 instead.
Again, you have to wonder how a team that did so well against LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama went on to lay such an egg, ironically, against Mississippi State.

SMITH:
Jefferson bounces back expecting a shootout with Will Rogers, but things get one-sided as a week of hard, old school practices and several vets looking to keep this team from falling on its face takes control of the identity of the team. The defense finds a mean streak and some of the younger guys start to feel like they belong. This one gets ugly quick as a game Mississippi State team finds itself in the wrong stadium at the wrong time.
Arkansas 38, Mississippi State 13
FINAL SCORE: Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Now, that's cute. I predicted this team would have leadership and accountability of some sort. This was definitely written in a much different world than we live in now.
So, the part about the younger guys starting to find a mean streak on defense was right, but everything else was embarrassingly wrong. However, this can't be put on me. An offense with a healthy KJ Jefferson should have been able to put up more then three points on its own against Mississippi State. As for poor, poor Will Rogers, he deserved better from his coaching staff.
The only reason the offense scored at all is because the defense gave them the ball on the Mississippi State 35 off an interception to open the game from back-up quarterback Mike Wright. Jefferson only managed 97 yards on 19 completions.
If anyone else before the season had the highlight player of this home game being Max Fletcher with 287 yards on six punts, then I would like to see the photographic proof. There's no way anyone predicted this.

SMITH:
The momentum and confidence build. Seeing The Swamp full of black jerseys instead of the usual Florida blue and green leads the Razorbacks to picture this as more of a wake than a game in the fabled setting. The running game gets going fast and never lets up. Jefferson hits Armstrong and Hasz after the Gator defense gets caught peeking in the backfield for a couple of big touchdowns and Florida never finds its balance. The running game chews up too much clock, failing to allow the Gators a chance for the win.
Arkansas 31, Florida 20
FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 39, Florida 36 (OT)

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Momentum and confidence? After Mississippi State? Yeah, that's what it should have been, but at no point has confidence been lower in regard to Razorback football following that game in Fayetteville.
Still, this was a road game, the only place the 2023 Razorbacks show up to play. Had Hasz been around for this game, this might have been the actual point differential. This did turn out to be one of the few times Arkansas ran the ball well all season. It was the first of only two games the Razorbacks managed a 100-yard rusher.
It should also be noted that I pretty much nailed the offensive total. Arkansas had 33 points in regulation.

SMITH:
This one is personal for Pittman and the Razorbacks are playing with too much confidence at this point. A win over a reeling Mississippi State team that was still wondering what hit it in Fayetteville the week before, followed by a mild upset of a surging Vanderbilt has Auburn fans feeling like things are on the upswing. That is until Pittman orders the hammer dropped on the Tigers.
The Razorbacks send the entire offensive backfield going four deep at Auburn and as the game wears on, there's not enough depth to prevent the dam from breaking. The rushing numbers are eye-popping and the few passes Jefferson has to throw are both efficient and effective. A formula of a running game eating up clock lately appears to be doing wonders for the Razorback defense as the secondary continues to improve.
Chris "Pooh" Paul comes up with a scoop and score at some point that mentally breaks Auburn.
Arkansas 31, Auburn 20
FINAL SCORE: Auburn 48, Arkansas 10

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

The Auburn wins over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt were right. Auburn was definitely riding a wave of momentum into Fayetteville. However, there was apparently nothing personal about this game to Pittman or Jefferson. The old offensive line returned to form, giving up five sacks, and the running game sputtered to a putrid 120 yards, more than half of which came from Criswell in mop-up duty.
Despite this poor showing, the biggest talking point from this game was the team's love for animation, Christmas and Tom Hanks. No one remembered that three running backs combined for six yards. In a moment of irony, a night overshadowed by the Polar Express, a Christmas classic about the greatness of having faith and jumping on a train, the Razorback faithful found inspiration to jump off the Pittman train.
Yet, another in a long list of things no one could have predicted before the season.

SMITH:
Jefferson throws a pair of touchdowns, Sanders runs one, as well as Green and by the time Sategna breaks off another punt return touchdown in the middle of the second quarter, there's no reason for Pittman to keep either his starting QB or running back on the field. Dubinion and Johnson go for 100 while Green adds 80. Criswell throws a couple of touchdowns and Singleton throws for one and then has to stop from scoring on a run at the 1-yard line on coach's orders. Meanwhile, the defense pitches a shutout and McGlothern runs one back from about 30 yards out.
Arkansas 62, Florida International 0
FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 44, FIU 20

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Thank goodness Augustave came on and became only the second running back to top 100 yards all season, because if he hadn't, this might have joined San Jose State as the worst loss in program history. It also would have been the final nail in the coffin for Pittman. Jefferson didn't even come out of the game until there was only one full drive left to attempt. I didn't predict it because I could't conceive that level of failure back in August. This should have been fans' third chance to see Singleton play quarterback and he never got onto the field once all season.

SMITH:
A 2-9 Missouri team stumbles into Fayetteville uninspired as word has leaked out that Eli Drinkwitz has been told beforehand this is his last game as head coach of the Tigers. Trying to go out in a blaze of glory backfires as his players just want the season to end, resulting in multiple turnovers. Jefferson and Sanders pour it on as they try to rack up stats for the Heisman voters while the frustration of games that shouldn't have been lost bubble to the forefront.
Pittman finally calls off the dogs, setting his starters early in the fourth quarter, but allows Enos to keep calling like he normally would until the final couple of minutes. This one is ugly from start to finish. Drinkwitz's coaching career temporarily ends 45 miles from where it first began in Alma.
Arkansas 49, Missouri 13
FINAL SCORE: 48-14

SO HOW ACCURATE WAS I?

Here's the main reason why we're doing this. One reader, presumably a Missouri fan, pointed out after the game that I simply made a typo and got the teams mixed up. I would love to say that happened, but neither he, nor I, could have stood in the office back in August and typed with a straight face that a 9-2 Missouri team, with Eli Drinkwitz riding on the high of a Top 10 ranking, would show up in Razorback Stadium and totally embarrass the state of Arkansas on Senior Day in a stadium filled mostly with Missouri fans.
Keep in mind, the last time we saw Drinkwitz, he required an interception thrown by Jefferson deep in Arkansas territory to get a field goal that saved his job. If that doesn't happen, Arkansas wins in Columbia and Tigers fans get their wish as Drinkwitz is fired. The idea that for the first time in four years Drinkwitz would not only have a winning record, but he'd have 10 wins makes as much sense predicting as Enos e-mails and animated movies at halftime of an SEC tail kicking.
It's just been that kind of year, and if everything was going to be flipped in that prediction, this was the year. So, congrats Missouri. It's still nowhere close to a rivalry for Arkansas fans, but you sure made a show of it. Crow deservedly consumed.

Check Your Preseason Bingo Card

So, for those who like to go back after the fact and pretend they saw all this coming down the pipe, let's look at the Bingo you would've had to hit to predict this season:

1. Assistant coach spends time sniping at students over e-mail immediately after a tough loss instead of preparing debriefing on the game.
2. The team's leading rusher will have 447 yards, and it will be the quarterback.
3. Neither Cody Kennedy, nor Sam Pittman, two men known for being great offensive line coaches can coach the 2023 line well enough to even handle Kent State.
4. The team's eventual third leading receiver goes out to injury in September.
5. Sanders would go all Nick Smith and head off to another state for a while in the middle of the season before being lost completely to injury with only 62 carries.
6. The movie Polar Express would have anything to do with this season, much less be the most memorable thing about it.
7. The new offensive coordinator being fired in the middle of the season.
8. The team losing its mind in support of interim offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton leading into and immediately after the Florida, only to fully abandon him on the field in the remaining games against SEC opponents.
9. The Arkansas fan base becoming so enraged against Pittman that they gave the full Chad Morris treatment the last two games to the point tickets couldn't be sold at $4.
10. That Eli Drinkwitz did anything that resembled competence against an SEC schedule.

None of those things were conceivable back in August. We were all working with highly inaccurate information and a path of events so outlandish they were impossible to imagine. Much like Jefferson and the running backs, the offensive line let me down when it came to my predictions. However, with everything else that went on that showed a lack of program control, I'm not entire sure it would have mattered.