DC Travis Williams Controls the One Stat That Most Accurately Determines Razorback Games

There is a statistical clear line during the Pittman era that separates Arkansas wins, losses

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Sep 6, 2023 2:52 PM EDT

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Last Saturday's defensive performance that generated five turnovers was obviously a pretty big deal. Razorback fans don't have to bury themselves under piles of box scores and spreadsheets to know taking the ball away five times is a large amount.

But that doesn't mean it's not worth ripping through this entire decade's worth of game-by-game statistics to put a little perspective on a Travis Williams defense that was sold as much more aggressive than its predecessors. There have been games where the Hogs have come up with large numbers of turnovers. After all, the reason every knows Hudson Clark's name, who was responsible for a pick of his own Saturday, is because he burst on the scene back in the dark days with three interceptions in a single game to give a fan base incapable of seeing the light after the Chad Morris era the slightest ray of hope.

Turnovers Equal Wins

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman has said many times he isn't a big analytics guy. He's making an effort to wrap his mind around it of late, but after decades of going on experience and instinct, adjusting to sifting through numbers for trends is hard.

As a result, it's unlikely he stared at a lot of spreadsheets when considering defensive coordinator Travis Williams. He admitted in the offseason he was nervous about how aggressive Williams was at Central Florida. Had he looked at his own numbers, he might not have been.

Saturday was the seventh time in Pittman's tenure the defense has forced three or more turnovers. Whether it's against lower competition or SEC foes doesn't matter. If Arkansas takes it away three times, the Razorbacks always win. Even a pair of turnovers has almost been a guarantee under Pittman.

Arkansas is 11-2 this decade when the defense gets at least two. The only two losses came in that very first game against Georgia where the Hogs shocked everyone by coming directly out of the Chad Morris disaster and hung with No. 4 Georgia for a half, and the LSU game last year that was only lost because Jefferson was out with no reliable back-up.

Of course, the flip side to that is what happens when Arkansas draws one or fewer turnovers, which happened 24 times under the previous regime. Needless to say, the odds of winning go down dramatically. In games where the Razorbacks produced at least one turnover, the Hogs squeaked out a 6-8 record. In the 10 games where the defense produced none, the Razorbacks fell to 3-7.

For those who need a little help with math, one or fewer turnovers historically gives Arkansas a 37.5% chance of winning under Pittman. Get that number to two or more and the odds of Hog fans feeling great for the rest of the weekend jumps to 85%.

Think back to those four games the athletic department keeps harping on that were lost by three points or less in 2022. Other than LSU, they each netted either one or fewer turnovers.

By bringing in Williams, the aggressive style of play increases the odds that number would have increased. That means an opponent's drive may not have resulted in points or a swing in momentum and field position sets up a field goal. An extra turnover each game was likely the difference in another 9-4 season instead of 7-6.

2022

There were plenty of opportunities for turnovers last season. Once everyone saw they were throwing against the worst pass defense in all of college football, opponents couldn't wait to throw the ball as many times as possible against the Razorbacks. And while secondary was getting pelted with so many footballs it looked like a rain storm, the rest of the team was racking up sacks.

What should have been the perfect recipe for frequent takeaways started as if it might be that kind of year. Arkansas may not have generated five turnovers in a single game, but the Razorback defense did manage it over the first two games. In the opener against Cincinnati, the Hogs gathered two and then added three more against South Carolina.

Between Sept. 11 and Nov. 12, the Arkansas defense needed eight games to produce five turnovers. That stretch began with Missouri State and ended with LSU. The Razorbacks went 3-5 and came within minutes of going 2-6 after failing to create a single turnover against former head coach Bobby Petrino's FCS team. The Hogs only managed two wins without multiple forced turnovers – against BYU and an Auburn team that had completely given up.

Most Turnovers

Ironically, it was the 2020 schedule that produced the most turnovers in a single season under Pittman. There were only 10 games played and they were all against the SEC, yet the defense came away with 18 turnovers.

Much of that was aided by the Ole Miss game where the Hogs turned the Rebels over seven times. Last season produced the second most with 17, though it took three extra games. In another bit of irony, it was the best team of the Pittman era, that 9-4 group in 2021, that had the worst turnover numbers. That group defied all kinds of statistical trends as time and again little things tilted in the Razorbacks' favor, canceling out the lack of turnovers.

What Does It Mean?

Not a whole lot just yet. Saturday's turnover performance was against an FCS school, so it's hard to gauge how that applies going forward. It's not possible to entirely write numbers put up against Western Carolina since Arkansas didn't generate a single turnover against what was supposed to be last season's late night FCS snack.

However, it does favor the idea this team can pull together a winning season. Arkansas has lost eight games by 3 points or less under Pittman. Every single one had one or fewer turnovers. If Williams could get his defense to keep producing takeaways, that 0-8 could easily be 7-1 going forward.

That's a lot of difference from the slightest adjustment in philosophy. Of course, that means the Arkansas defense will have to continue to be active in creating havoc throughout the season. If so, Razorback fans might be spending the holidays somewhere warm for the second time in three years.