Arkansas Roughly 50-50 to Make NCAA Tournament if Only In-Game Work Considered

There are factors in the Razorbacks' favor, just not exactly on the basketball court

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Feb 20, 2023 3:57 PM EST
Original:
Feb 20, 2023

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Arkansas fans are fiercely loyal and when it comes to clinging to hope, eternally optimistic.

I've been married to one for 20 years and the ability to stay strong in the worst of situations over the years has been something to truly admire.

That's why as I write these words – Arkansas still has a 50-50 shot of finding itself in the NIT – I know what is about to come with it.

The Razorbacks are coming off a big win over a bad Florida team that was missing its best player, center Collin Castleton, so Arkansas fans will be riding high and looking to break out some of their favorite stand-bys.

"How dare you! Have you no loyalty?"

Uh, no. I'm a journalist. It would be unethical for me to show loyalty to a school I am supposed to be covering without bias. That's why you know if I write it, I truly believe it and feel it can be factually supported. I will always go out of my way to be fair and honest when it comes to covering Arkansas no matter which direction the evidence leads.

"You are no Joe Lunardi!"

That is correct. You have read the byline with accuracy, and I am not Joe Lunardi posing as Kent Smith so I can cheat on ESPN.

"Have you never heard of the NET Rankings?"

Why, yes. I have. I glance at them from time-to-time and take them with a grain of salt. If you go back to my coverage of the Razorbacks around this time last year, I wrote about them quite often. After all, they made LSU out to be one of the most dominant teams in the country and continued to say the Tigers were better than Arkansas even after LSU took three loses to the Hogs.

"You're stupid and have no neck!"

I would like to confirm that I indeed have a neck. My head doesn't connect directly to my chest area. Although, if it did, I wonder whether I would be willing to make my living off one of those bad reality shows and how much it would pay.

For the record, I never taken any of the comments personally. I know Razorback fans don't like it if the job requires having to write something they don't want to hear.

I grew up in Arkansas. I get it and the frustration that sometimes comes with it, so no worries. The Lord says to forgive, so I very easily forgive people who lash out in the emotion of the moment.

Especially those that come at 5 a.m., presumably in the midst of a morning constitutional. It's hard to not get caught up feeling the power of your thoughts when ruling from the porcelain throne.

So, with that out of the way, let's take a look at how Arkansas looks at the moment from an outsider's perspective and also project if things play out as expected.

Now, let's start by saying that there's no way to know how this team is going to be playing next weekend. With all changes that keep taking place, the one thing that's consistent about this team is how inconsistent it is.

The Razorbacks might haul off and blow through Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky in consecutive games. Just as likely, Arkansas gets blown out by all three.

We're going to work with the idea that the Razorbacks will beat Georgia, lose to Tennessee and Alabama and consider Kentucky a 50-50 game.

As of last week, the Razorbacks had fallen to a projected No. 10 seed. That seems safe on its face, but it's a short drop to out of the tournament because anything below No. 11 is typically filled with mid-majors and automatic qualifiers.

So let's start with the the two issues that have the highest potential to drag Arkansas down into NIT.

The first is an extreme lack of quality wins. The Hogs will have a decent list of quality losses, but are almost completely void of meaningful victories.

The only win of consequence is a four-point overtime win over current No. 21 San Diego State. It's low in terms of best high quality win, but at least it is one.

However, the committee looks at games in context, which means even when considering this one, there's not as much shine as Arkansas would like. It's a four-point win in overtime back during Thanksgiving on a neutral floor with star forward Trevon Brazile in the line-up.

Nothing in that sentence other than the word win really helps the Razorbacks' case. Outside of that, the only other two notable wins were over Kentucky in Rupp and a home win against Missouri back in January.

Yes, the Hogs beat A&M also, but more on that in a minute.

Until the Wildcats managed a home win against No. 11 Tennessee over the weekend, they weren't even considered by most to be a tournament team. Couple that with the fact a bad South Carolina team won in Rupp and lowly LSU even almost pulled off the feat, it becomes clear that win doesn't carry the weight it once would have.

Beating unranked Missouri is an OK win, but that was at home early in the conference season and the Tigers have struggled lately. No one's fighting for a team to sneak into the tournament because someone has a win over Missouri.

Perhaps the best win on the Arkansas resume when looking at it objectively is the win over Texas A&M. That's a really good team and that was a solid win.

However, for the second year in a row, there is just this overwhelming wave of disrespect for the Aggies. This is a team that is one win over Alabama away from being the SEC regular season champs and they just barely climbed into the polls yesterday at No. 25.

This is a win that should count for a lot, but A&M bias is going to keep that from happening.

The second thing that is going to hurt Arkansas is how down the SEC is overall this year. If the potential SEC champion has no respect, how can the rest of the league?

It's been Alabama and Tennessee all alone carrying the banner for most of the year. If Arkansas finishes the regular season 19-13 as projected and then flounders in the SEC Tournament, there is no support of playing in a respected league to cushion the fall at 19-14.

Everyone knows that, no matter how bad the Big Ten plays in the NCAA Tournament every season, teams getting into the tournament with bad records will always come from that league.

It's why a very good Texas A&M team that made a huge run to the SEC Tournament championship last year by knocking off multiple highly ranked opponents was sent to the NIT with a 23-11 overall record and 12-9 SEC record in favor of a 17-14 Michigan team.

And that was with the Aggies playing against a much more respected and accomplished SEC slate than the one the Razorbacks have faced this season.

There's also that LSU loss to open SEC play to consider. Losing to the worst team in what is perceived as a weak conference is going to create talking points around the Razorbacks.

Arkansas is currently No. 19 in the NET rankings despite having only three Quad 1 wins and an abysmal record on the road. The Razorbacks are at No. 16 in the KenPom rankings right now, primarily because of how heavily the formula accounts for defensive play.

It's because of those rankings, and those rankings only, that Arkansas probably gets in if this team can somehow get to 20 wins. If they didn't exist, then it might would take at least 21.

Musselman having become a tournament celebrity of sorts and Arkansas making the Elite 8 the past two seasons will buy Arkansas a certain amount of leeway. The Razorbacks also have the type of positive talking points that the execs at Paramount like to hear – huge recruiting class, projected NBA lottery picks.

Instead of being the lovable underdog of years past, the Razorbacks get to step into the role of blue-chip nabbing villains that has usually been played by Kentucky. It's ratings gold.

Not all decisions are made on merit. There are still ratings to be had.

Please refer again to the Michigan-Texas A&M situation for one of many instances of this over the years.

Plus, Paramount gets to show Musselman hanging out with famous people. All of these things go into the equation and project dramatically better on Arkansas than the actual accomplishments on the floor to this point.

That being said, if Arkansas does get a few high profile wins to close out the season, not only will the Razorbacks get into the tournament, they will shoot up the seedings chart as the selection committee chalks everything prior up to the injury bug.

It's hard to leave out a blue blood, and whether Razorback fans are comfortable with that label, the Hogs still technically fit the bill after the past 40 years.

It's definitely going to be an interesting three weeks, no matter which side of the 50-50 the Razorbacks end up falling on.