What Razorbacks Must Do to Win at Alabama for First Time Since 2020

Arkansas hasn't enjoyed much success in Tuscaloosa as of late, there's still reason for optimism for Wednesday's game

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari during the second half against the Auburn Tigers at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas heads into its midweek Southeastern Conference trip to Coleman Coliseum with belief that they can pick up a win over Alabama for the first time since February 2020.

The Crimson Tide have been solid this season with an 8-4 record in SEC play, and sit two games out of tying Florida for first place in the conference standings.

It's been a longtime since the Razorbacks came away victorious in Tuscaloosa, coming in Eric Mussleman's first team led by a terrific offensive performance from Mason Jones with 30 points.

Since Nate Oats arrived to Alabama that same season, he has helped his program gain complete control of the series with five straight wins.

Four of those five games have come down to four points or less which has allowed the Tide to trim Arkansas' all-time series lead to 36-34.

Arkansas Razorbacks guards Mellek Thomas (1) and Darius Acuff Jr (5) celebrate after a play in the second half against the Auburn Tigers at Bud Walton Arena. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

At this point, the Razorbacks have faced every SEC team in the bottom half of the league except for Texas, who will come to Fayetteville in a few weeks.

Alabama's four league losses have come to Florida, Tennessee, Texas and Vanderbilt, but have won four straight since getting trounced by Florida on the road.

This game will play a major role in which teams receive a double bye for the SEC Tournament in Nashville next month.

With plenty at stake, here are three reasons Arkansas can come away with a major resume boosting win Wednesday night against Alabama.

Metrics Favor Arkansas

Arkansas has shown offensive efficiency that gives it a chance against one of the league’s better teams. Updated NET rankings show the Razorbacks (No. 18) and Tide (No. 21) near parity by analytical data.

This suggests the Razorbacks are closer to Alabama on a level basis than some perception might indicate as style points in wins over Mississippi State, LSU and Auburn matter.

Offensively, Alabama leads the SEC in overall offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's rating system but the Razorbacks lead in overall field goal percentage (50.2%).

Alabama ranks No. 2 nationally at nearly 13 made three-point attempts per game, which is ahead of Arkansas by nearly four makes.

Both the Razorbacks and Tide have highly effective offenses but do it in completely different ways which will make Wednesday night's game one to keep an eye on based solely on national perception and NCAA Tournament seeding.

Alabama’s scoring production from deep will take Arkansas' improved defense of late to the test. The Razorbacks allow opponents to just seven made three pointers per game and a 30% on average.

Arkansas’ ability to limit opponents gives the Hogs the framework to ultimately challenge the Tide’s offensive rhythm. If Arkansas controls shot selection and converts open looks, it can neutralize some of Alabama’s offensive advantages.

Recent Offensive Explosions and Confidence

Arkansas enters the Wednesday night's game riding with full confidence offensively after a strong showing against Auburn.

Freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. exploded to tie his career-high with 31 points, including seven three-pointers, and the Razorbacks shot nearly 57 percent from the field in that 88-75 win.

It was Billy Richmond III who continues to be the Razorbacks' x-factor, scoring 25 points on 12-of-15 shooting and made major contributions across the board in the rebounds, assists and steals department.

Arkansas Razorbacks Billy Richmond during exhibition matchup against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Arkansas Communications

Scoring balance from multiple players gives Arkansas room to attack in different ways rather than relying on a single option like Acuff.

Should the Razorbacks replicate that level of scoring against Alabama, they will be in position to control stretches of the game against Alabama.

Limit Turnovers

A key statistical edge for Arkansas lies in turnover margin. The Razorbacks enters Wednesday's game with a statistical edge at No. 8 nationally with just eight turnovers per game while Alabama ranks No. 36 averages 10 per game.

In a road environment like Coleman Coliseum, possession control becomes critical.

Limiting errors, protecting the ball around screens and executing through ball pressure allows Arkansas to offset some of Alabama’s rebounding and interior physicality.

Turnovers often translate directly into transition points, which can be a deciding factor in tight conference games.

If Arkansas can convert turnovers into fast break opportunities and avoid giving extra possessions to a Tide team that thrives off second chances, that edge could prove decisive.