What Latest NCAA Tournament Projections Reveal About Auburn's March Madness Hopes

Following their embarrassing 85-79 loss to Ole Miss on Saturday night in Neville Arena, the Auburn Tigers are continuing to drop in the most recent NCAA Tournament projections.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his updated predicted seedings on Monday morning, and he had Auburn as one of the first four teams out of the field of 68. After Auburn’s big win over Kentucky, it was considered as one of the Last Four Byes, according to Lunardi.

This is an interesting shift, considering the Tigers were still included in the Last Four In on Saturday following the loss to the Rebels, but it certainly makes sense why Auburn is now on the outside looking in, in terms of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

CBS Sports’ newest bracketology was updated on Tuesday morning, and they also currently have the Tigers in their First Four Out. CBS had them as a No. 9-seed just a couple of weeks ago, but obviously, the recent skid has proven costly.

However, USA Today tends to be slightly higher on the Tigers than the other outlets, as its recent projection lists Auburn as one of the Last Four In, beating out Indiana, VCU, California, and San Diego State.

All of these outlets have dropped Auburn in their projections, which absolutely makes sense after the Tigers put on one of the most embarrassing performances that Neville Arena has seen in recent history on Saturday against Ole Miss. In what was the most important game of the year thus far, Auburn completely folded in the second half, despite leading by as many as eight points at multiple points in the contest.

The loss to the Rebels marked Auburn’s first Quad-3 loss of the season, as Ole Miss sits at No. 91 in the NET. A game is considered “Quad-3” when a particular team faces an opponent that ranks between No. 76 and No. 160 in the NET. In this case, Auburn hosted the Rebels on its home floor, making it a Quad-3 loss.

However, the Tigers do boast five solid Quad-1 wins, including their wins over Florida, St. John’s, Arkansas, NC State, and Kentucky. They are 5-11 overall in Quad-1 matchups, while standing at 2-2 in Quad-2 contests, with losses to Mississippi State and Texas A&M.

These metrics are extremely important when the NCAA tournament selection committee is assembling the field of 68. Auburn has also played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as the Tigers rank No. 1 nationally in strength of schedule.

Auburn’s strength of schedule is the aspect of its resume truly holding great weight, but there’s no doubt the Tigers will need to finish strong heading into Selection Sunday.

Steven Pearl and company host LSU for senior night on Tuesday night before traveling to Tuscaloosa for a rematch with Alabama on Saturday. A string of wins in the SEC Tournament next week would also bode well for Auburn’s tournament chances and aspirations.