ESPN Analyst Lists Auburn in Top 32 Teams to Make CFP

The Auburn Tigers have received a great amount of preseason hype leading up to Hugh Freeze’s third year on the Plains, and the numbers and metrics seem to believe no different.

ESPN national college football analyst Heather Dinich released a list earlier this week featuring the 32 teams – the most in the CFP era – that have at least a 10% chance to reach the 2025 College Football Playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Dinich says the list will shrink as teams get further along in the season, but he ranked the 32 teams in order of their percentage chance to make the playoffs.

Of course, college football powerhouses like Texas, Ohio State, and Georgia topped the poll, but Auburn found itself slightly higher than maybe some were expecting.

The Tigers sit at No. 18 with a 21.8% chance to make the playoffs and 1.1% chance to win the national championship, per ESPN analytics. Auburn holds the twelfth-best odds to win a national title, according to ESPN BET, at +7500.

Dinich added commentary to ESPN’s statistics and analyzed whether it is an accurate reflection of the Tigers or not.

“[I] disagree. Auburn might be one of the most improved teams in the country, but it might not show in wins against the nation's 14th-toughest schedule,” Dinich said. “Auburn could still be a four-loss team (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and while that would be its best finish under coach Hugh Freeze, it's unlikely to make the cut for the 12-team field.”

As Dinich points out, the Tigers have one of the most upgraded rosters in college football. Auburn has stacked two consecutive top-10 high school recruiting classes and brought in a plethora of new pieces through the transfer portal that should play an important role this season.

However, like many have said to the point of nausea over the past few months, it’s time for fans to see it pay off on the field. Despite Auburn’s schedule still boasting teams like Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, it’s much more manageable than years past.

The Tigers avoid playing No. 1, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 7, and No. 9 of the 2025 SEC Preseason Media Poll – those being Texas, LSU, South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Instead, they face Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt, which are games that should be extremely winnable.

Freeze most likely needs to win at least eight games this season to feel comfortable regarding his future at Auburn, and although that mark may not be enough to reach the playoff, most Auburn fans would feel like the program is taking steps in the right direction.

Dinich continued in her analysis of Auburn’s schedule, describing what she thinks the Tigers’ “toughest test” is in 2025.

“Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There's still a significant gap between these two programs, and it's up to the Auburn offense to close it,” Dinich wrote. “The Tigers averaged 13.3 points in their seven losses last fall, and they'll need stronger quarterback play to have a chance against Georgia, which won 31-13 last year.”

Auburn has numerous tests this season, including its Week 1 game at Baylor. It is essential that the Tigers emerge from Waco victorious to secure confidence out of the gate, revitalize the fanbase, and travel to Oklahoma undefeated. If they drop the season opener against the Bears, it will be an uphill battle to overcome the loss and regain momentum heading into their SEC slate.

But like Dinich expressed, the Georgia matchup will most likely be Auburn’s toughest. The Tigers will be coming off a two-game road stint at Oklahoma and Texas A&M before hosting the Bulldogs, and if Auburn drops both to the Sooners and Aggies, the Georgia game could be crucial. Going 0-3 in that three-game stretch would be less than ideal for the Tigers, especially if they lose to Baylor on Aug. 29.

Dinch then dove into a “what the (playoff) committee will like” section, where she details a feat that Auburn can achieve that would please the College Football Playoff selection committee come December.

“An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama in the regular-season finale could be a critical head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record and are on the bubble,” Dinich wrote. “It's not unreasonable for both Alabama and Auburn to finish with three losses this fall -- but it's also possible that Alabama earns a spot in the SEC title game. Auburn will have home-field advantage against the Tide, and a win would leave a lasting impression, especially if Alabama has a chance to win the SEC.”

As Dinich alludes to, the Iron Bowl could have some sort of real postseason significance this season for the first time in forever, it seems. Alabama has defeated the Tigers five consecutive times – the last Auburn victory coming in 2019 – meaning an Iron Bowl win could be what Freeze and company need to finally get over the hump.

If both squads hold relatively solid records and hear their name as contenders for a College Football Playoff spot heading into Rivalry Week, the outcome could hold playoff implications. And if that were the case, Jordan-Hare Stadium would be absolutely electric, which everyone knows favors the Tigers heavily in the Iron Bowl.

Dinich wrapped it up by discussing “what the committee won’t like,” revealing flaws Auburn has displayed in the past that deter the selection committee.

“Bad losses. Auburn lost to Cal and Arkansas last season, two unranked teams that both finished with at least six losses,” Dinich wrote. “If Auburn is going to have any shot as an at-large CFP team, it has to avoid similar traps.

Bad losses have plagued the Tigers in the first two years of the Freeze era. From New Mexico State in 2023, to Cal, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt last season, Auburn must clean up those mistakes if it wants to make a run for the College Football Playoff. If the Tigers can win every game that they are supposed to win and squeak out a couple that they aren’t, Freeze is going to see a fourth year on the Plains, and potentially the program’s first-ever CFP playoff berth.

Freeze has expressed extreme confidence in his heavily improved squad countless times this offseason, and wholeheartedly believes this team can compete with the nation’s best.

“I truly believe that in the playoff run, we're going to be in this discussion because I love this team,” Freeze said at SEC Media Days last month on Auburn’s CFP expectations. “I think we had -- now, we've got to stay healthy and we need the ball to bounce our way a couple times this year instead of against us, I'm sure, but that's our full expectation. We embrace the fact that that is what Auburn should be, in those talks year in, year out.”

“It takes a little time to build it, and we've been doing that. Certainly, I wish we would have won more games a few times, but the future is very bright in my eyes. We've been blessed everywhere we've been to win, and I expect nothing less than that at Auburn.”

More From Auburn Tigers on SI