What Are Auburn’s Chances to Beat Mississippi State? Lines, Projections, Odds

The Auburn Tigers have a crucial matchup this weekend against Mississippi State, as not only could the team improve to 6-4, 4-4 in the SEC, but they could also lock up bowl eligibility for the program’s first time since 2023.

However, early projections are having a hard time placing exactly how this game will go, especially with star Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor sidelined, resulting in odds trending a lot closer to the 50/50 line than many of the Tigers’ prior matchups.

As it stands, ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 49.1% chance to win, compared to the Bulldogs 50.9% chance, though lines for the game are trending more in the Tigers’ favor, as most sportsbooks list the Tigers as a 2.5-point favorite in Starkville.

“It has been a cruel season in Starkville,” ESPN’s Mark Zinno and Pamela Maldonaldo, a pair of sports betting analysts, wrote. “Their defense is playing all right, and Auburn's offense certainly isn't amazing, but even an Auburn defense in disarray will probably make too many stops in this one.”

ESPN’s SP+ prediction, however, projects the Bulldogs to win by 3.5 points, so things may not be as cut-and-dry as many believe, especially since the Bulldogs’ quarterback, AJ Swann, has been quite inconsistent but still strong at times, and the Tigers’ defense may give him enough cushion to operate properly.

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For the Tigers, much of this game will come down to how they are able to establish any form of a rushing attack on offense, as the Tigers are 0-3 when held to under 110 rushing yards but are 5-1 when eclipsing the 130-rushing-yard mark. When the rushing attack is working, whether through Byrum Brown or other means, the Tigers’ offense is quite hard to stop.

For the Bulldogs, one of two major offensive things will need to happen to win: in one scenario, Fluff Bothwell and company catch fire against a weaker Auburn rushing defense, building a lead that the Tigers are unable to overcome.

In the other, AJ Swann finally has a big game against an SEC opponent, as the senior has only ever passed for over 200 yards against two, one in his freshman year against Ole Miss, and a close shave last week in the Bulldogs’ loss to Vanderbilt, where he passed for 254 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

It still seems like a toss-up in Starkville this weekend, as both teams have a lot going for them and a lot working against them. Kickoff for what is expected to be a close matchup will be at 11:00 a.m. CT, and it’ll be broadcast on ESPN2.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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