Why Josh Pate Has Auburn Tigers on Upset Alert This Weekend

Many expect the Auburn Tigers to take care of business against the Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend. However, some of the outside media are putting the brakes on that thought.

One of them is ESPN contributor and podcast host Josh Pate, who gives a weekly list of teams that could be on upset watch ahead of each weekend’s slate. One of the teams he listed earlier this week was Auburn, giving the Tigers a seven out of 10 on his “upset alert concern meter”

And it comes from a blend of two different thoughts. The first involves Vanderbilt’s true freshman quarterback, Jared Curtis.

“There are going to be some growing pains,” he said on his podcast, Josh Pate’s College Football Show, “but there’s this theme emerging in the SEC right now where a bunch of first-year starters at quarterback are showing real spike potential above and beyond some of the entrenched, incumbent starter types, and Jared Curtis is one of them.”

With each game, Pate sees Curtis growing, similar to how Tennessee first-year quarterback Faizon Brandon and Alabama freshman Keelon Russell have done in their first few weeks as starting quarterbacks. Curtis is starting in the second game of his career, which will be his first start playing both away from home and in the SEC.

For the future commissioner of college football, it’s only a matter of when it clicks.

“Who is the victim of the Jared Curtis, like, emergence game, sort of announcing his arrival to the world?” Pate asks.

Auburn’s loss to Florida had many members of the top media in attendance, and Pate was one of them. Especially from an offensive standpoint, he’s been critical of head coach Alex Golesh and the slow transition it’s been from his unit at USF to Auburn this season.

Pate is also quite critical of quarterback Byrum Brown.

“Byrum Brown has not scaled as a performer at this level yet,” he said, “and I don’t know if that’s a magical lever that’s going to get pulled at any point this year. I think it could be a struggle most of the year.”

If Auburn doesn’t get back on track this weekend, a rough middle of the season could put the nail in the coffin of the Tigers’ 2026 expectations. Next week’s matchup will be at Tennessee, while trips to play Georgia and Ole Miss, with a home game against LSU, will have Golesh’s group fighting for a win all October.

While the hangover from a loss to another SEC opponent could occur, there’s another important point in how Vanderbilt doesn’t have a loss all year, but it took a historic moment for it to happen.

“I was not that impressed at all with what we saw from Auburn last week,” Pate said. “Now, you could say the same about Vandy. They needed the miracle to top all miracles to technically beat NC State, but it did happen.”

Overall, the college football analyst has hope for Auburn to take care of business with an important win this weekend against a conference opponent. However, Pate believes the preparation the Commodores have heading into the contest could raise some eyebrows if there’s a tied result in the second half.

“I believe in Clark Lea and those guys to put together a really, really good game plan here,” he said, “and I don’t know what to expect from Auburn right now, so I’m going to put a seven on it.”

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