Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

A top-25 matchup between SEC teams takes place on Saturday night, as the No. 19 Missouri Tigers look to keep their undefeated season going with a road date against the No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Mississippi State has come out of nowhere early in the 2026 season with quarterback Kamario Taylor inserting himself into the Heisman conversation with some dazzling play. The Bulldogs knocked off LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina last week, and they’ve favored to win Saturday’s clash at home.

Missouri and quarterback Austin Simmons have a perfect record as well this season, beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas and Troy. However, the Tigers are just 1-2 against the spread and only beat Troy by 10 points in Week 3.

Could that be a cause for concern heading into a massive SEC opener on Saturday?

Oddsmakers seem to think so, setting the Bulldogs as 6.5-point home favorites after impressive victories at Minnesota and at South Carolina in consecutive weeks.

Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in the country in net EPA/Play, but their adjusted numbers are a little worse. So, who has the edge on Saturday?

I’m eyeing a side in this matchup, but first let’s check out the odds, a player to watch and more for this SEC showdown in Week 4.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Missouri +6.5 (-112)
Mississippi State -6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Missouri: +195
Mississippi State: -238

Total

58.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Missouri vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
Time: 7:45 p.m. EST
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
Missouri record: 3-0
Mississippi State record: 3-0

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Key Player to Watch

Kamario Taylor, Quarterback, Mississippi State

Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor is now fourth in the odds to win the Heisman at +1100 after throwing for four scores in a win over South Carolina. He’s come out of nowhere to become one of the top options in this market, and he has a chance to get another statement win against a top-25 team in Week 4.

Taylor has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 832 yards, 11 passing scores and one pick while adding 178 yards and a score on the ground. The Bulldogs are off to a 3-0 start, even though they’re major underdogs still to win the SEC.

If Taylor gets Mississippi State into the College Football Playoff conversation, it may be the most impressive thing any player does in 2026.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

The lookahead line for this game had the Bulldogs as 1.5-point favorites at home, so this spread has moved five points since Taylor and Co. upset South Carolina.

I think the move is justified, as Missouri has struggled against the spread against much worse competition and ranks 107th in the country in net adjusted EPA/Play. The Tigers rely a lot on their run game (115 runs to 83 passes this season), yet they are just 87th in the country in EPA/Rush.

That’s going to be an issue against a Bulldogs defense (outside the top 100 in net EPA/Play) that has done a solid job against the run this season, ranking 11th in EPA/Rush and 48th in defensive success rate against run plays.

Taylor has been a revelation for the Bulldogs, posting some of the best passing numbers in the country. He dominated the South Carolina secondary, and the Heisman candidate has a really tough matchup ahead against a defense that is No. 2 in the country in EPA/Pass and No. 3 in defensive success rate on pass plays.

Still, I lean with the better quarterback in this matchup. Missouri threw for just 91 yards in the win over Troy, and this offense is 97th in the country in average third-down distance despite three easy wins to open the season.

I don’t trust Simmons enough to outduel Taylor – especially on the road – on Saturday.

Pick: Mississippi State -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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