Will Auburn Upset Vanderbilt? Predicting the Tigers' Chances Against the Commodores

Auburn needs to win two of their final three games to reach bowl eligibility.

Auburn is looking for revenge after last season's loss to Vanderbilt. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Auburn Tigers must win two of their final three games to secure a bowl invitation. Standing in their way are the 15th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores.

Interim head coach DJ Durkin is leading the Tigers for the first time. After a disappointing loss to Kentucky, the offense is hoping for better results. Meanwhile, the defense aims to continue its streak of allowing less than 24 points per game.

In contrast, Vanderbilt looks to move a step closer to a potential College Football Playoff bid.

Potential Mindset

Hugh Freeze is gone. For some players, that could be positive. The offense struggled to find consistency. Now, the previous three-person playcalling committee is gone, and offensive coordinator Derrick Nix steps forward as the sole playcaller.

How will this move affect the offense?

With Nix's background as a running backs coach, it stands to reason that plays requiring shotgun passes for only two yards should disappear. Auburn should rely on Jeremiah Cobb to attack the Vanderbilt front.

However, the Commodores have allowed only 101.7 rushing yards per game and just four rushing touchdowns. Yet, that stat can be misleading. With a potent offense, Vanderbilt often jumps out to big leads, forcing teams to rely more on passing. Auburn needs to set the tone early.

Problem

Tight end Eli Stowers appears on multiple finalist lists for various awards for good reason: he is a matchup nightmare who can challenge Auburn at every level. In short yardage situations, Stowers—a former quarterback—can throw the ball. The Tigers need to watch for plays when he lines up in the backfield.

Similarly, Vanderbilt sometimes runs a version of the tight end option. Depending on the defense, quarterback Diego Pavia can keep the ball or pitch to the speedy Stowers, who moves like a quarterback. On the second level, the senior can run a full route tree, using both speed and leaping ability to threaten defenders.

If Pavia sees Stowers matched up one-on-one in plus territory, he will toss the ball his way. Auburn must keep Stowers bracketed the entire game to limit Pavia's favorite target.

Eli Stowers makes it look easy with the adjustment and turn up field pic.twitter.com/Jyaw6ixIRv

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) November 1, 2025

Containing Pavia

In essence, Pavia is what many thought Jackson Arnold would be: an undersized, mobile quarterback with decent arm strength and the toughness to overcome limitations. Pavia takes the challenge directly to the defense—he does not back away or retreat when under pressure. Auburn will need to force him to do so.

“This is the Louis Vuitton vs. some underground yard sale.”

Diego Pavia tells @MartySmithESPN that people need to stop sleeping on @VandyFootball 😤 pic.twitter.com/DCWokK5GXx

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 1, 2025

With a deep defensive line rotation, the Tigers can not only contain the senior but also shrink the pocket. If Pavia is allowed to move the pocket, he will release the ball quickly. Fortunately for Auburn, one of their pass rushers ranks among the best in the SEC for pressures. According to Pro Football Sports Network, Keyron Crawford's 30 pressures are fourth among edge rushers.

Furthermore, Crawford excels at quick pressures - defined as reaching the quarterback in less than 2.5 seconds - with 12, ranking third in the conference. Pavia processes quickly. If Crawford can repeatedly chase him into another defender, it will render the offense ineffective.

Prediction

Somehow, this game will not be decided by Ashton Daniels, or Jackson Arnold if Durkin follows in Freeze's footsteps by flip-flopping quarterbacks. Free from Freeze's controlling influence, Nix centers the game plan around the run, using play action to keep the defense honest.

Cobb has a big day, while Auburn quarterbacks connect on at least one deep pass. Meanwhile, the defense contains Pavia for most of the game. However, a couple of blown coverages allow Stowers to get open, sealing the game for the Commodores.

Final Score: Vanderbilt 26, Auburn 23