Key Stats to Keep in Mind During Auburn vs Arkansas Game

These stats could reveal the keys to an Auburn Tigers win in SEC play

Auburn has its chances to pick up an SEC win if they keep these stats in mind | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Saturday's matchup between the Auburn Tigers and the Arkansas Razorbacks dictates the rest of the season for the two programs. With both teams winless in the SEC, a victory salvages a scintilla of hope, potentially leading to a bowl bid. While the talent disparity could favor the Tigers, who succeed in victories, it will dictate who leaves as the leaves fall. Five stats could serve as a foundation for who emerges victorious.

Third Down Conversions

The Razorbacks convert 55% of their attempts, placing them third in FBS, behind Utah and Vanderbilt. This stat hinges on how well quarterback Taylen Green operates on first and second down. He doesn't need to gain all ten yards in one play. 

Instead, the quarterback slices into the yard deficit. As their second-leader rusher, anything within six yards becomes makeable on several fronts. First, the RPO freezes the defense, allowing the Hogs to gain positive yardage. On top of that, defense will occasionally sell out to make the stop, exposing the intermediate and deep areas to throws that could result in bigger plays. 

Penalties/Penalty Yardage

Typically, these two statistics would mesh, creating a narrative of undisciplined behavior from the player. However, Auburn under Hugh Freeze sits in a precarious spot. The Tigers commit 8.1 penalties per game, ranking 133rd overall. Similarly, they rank 15th in the SEC with 69.7 penalties per game.

 Auburn cannot get out of its way, committing penalties that halt drives and break momentum. Players like Arkansas offensive lineman Fernando Carmona possess a history of overaggressive play. As a result, look for him to attempt to bait a Tiger defender into retaliating, drawing a flag from officials. Plus, the pass rush needs to play smarter. Hitting the quarterback almost always induces a penalty. 

Passing Plays Over 30 Yards

Since the beginning of the season, the Auburn head coach has discussed a desire to throw the ball downfield. Unfortunately, quarterback Jackson Arnold prefers to hold the ball too long, missing his chance to throw, and is buried under the opposing pass rush. 

However, the Razorbacks have surrendered eight passing plays of at least 30 yards, tying them for last in the conference. If wide receiver Cam Coleman can secure the ball in stride, that number increases. Arkansas cannot stop the pass. Subsequently, the deep ball should be a priority.

Red Zone Defense

When teams are inside the opponent's 20-yard line, their scoring chances rise significantly. Neither program wants multiple visits in the red zone. However, Auburn looks far better suited to defend the short field. By allowing only opponents to collect points 80% of the time within those 20 yards, D.J. Durkin's defense neither bends nor breaks when faced with an offense knocking on the doorstep. In fact, of the 25 times in the red zone, Auburn surrendered just 12 touchdowns, which amounts to just 48% of the time. 

More often than not, they settle for a field goal. In all honesty, Arkansas' defense will not put up much of a fight against the Tigers. All Jackson Arnold needs to cash in. 

Bottom Line

By most metrics, Auburn should win this game by double digits. Yet, nothing Hugh Freeze's offense proves that to be true. Somehow, the offense plays down to the competition, limiting its abilities. Will Saturday be different?

The Tigers play the Razorbacks on Saturday at 11:45 a.m. CDT, live on the SEC Network.