3 Keys to Baylor Beating BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston in the Race for the Big 12 Title
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ESPN’s latest Football Power Index ranks Baylor sixth in the Big 12, but the Bears will have a direct opportunity to outperform that projection during the season’s final three weeks.
Baylor visits BYU on Nov. 14, hosts Texas Tech on Nov. 21 and closes the regular season at Houston on Nov. 28. That stretch could either propel Dave Aranda’s program into the Big 12 Championship Game or expose the remaining distance between Baylor and the conference’s leading contenders.
Here are three keys to the Bears surviving that personnel-heavy gauntlet and competing for a conference title.
DJ Lagway must deliver winning quarterback play
Baylor’s ceiling begins with DJ Lagway, the former five-star quarterback who transferred from Florida after passing for 2,264 yards, 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2025.
Lagway’s arm talent gives Baylor a needed explosive element, but his turnover total illustrates the central question entering 2026. Can he consistently create big plays without giving opponents additional possessions?
That balance will become especially important against Texas Tech. Will Hammond, the Red Raiders’ projected starter, passed for 680 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions while adding 299 rushing yards and five scores in limited 2025 action. He gives Texas Tech a dangerous dual-threat option even after the departure of Brendan Sorsby.
Houston returns an even more accomplished quarterback in Conner Weigman, who accounted for 36 touchdowns last season. Weigman threw 25 touchdown passes and ran for 11 more, tying for the Big 12 lead in total touchdowns.
Baylor cannot expect to win November shootouts if Lagway’s explosive completions are offset by interceptions. Third-down conversions, red-zone execution and ball security will matter more than his raw passing total.
Baylor must become considerably stronger against the run
Baylor allowed 197.2 rushing yards per game and 30 rushing touchdowns in 2025. Those numbers cannot carry into a closing stretch featuring three of the conference’s most physical opponents.
BYU’s LJ Martin presents the most obvious challenge. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry last season. If Martin keeps BYU ahead of the chains, the Cougars can control possession and prevent Lagway from developing an offensive rhythm.
Houston added Makhi Hughes, who produced consecutive 1,300-yard seasons at Tulane before spending 2025 at Oregon. Texas Tech can counter with Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams, who rushed for 868 yards and six touchdowns while adding 388 receiving yards last season.
Baylor’s reconstructed defensive front must provide an answer. Indiana transfer Hosea Wheeler brings 30 career starts and 139 tackles, while Coastal Carolina transfer Jordan Mack adds length and pass-rushing ability to the defensive line.
Offensively, the Bears can help their defense by establishing Dawson Pendergrass. He returns after missing the 2025 season with a foot injury and produced 1,009 rushing yards at 5 yards per carry across his first two college seasons. A productive Pendergrass can shorten games and keep Martin, Weigman and Hammond off the field.
Bears must win the explosive-play and hidden-yardage battles
Baylor’s margin for error becomes smaller against rosters carrying proven difference-makers.
Houston receiver Amare Thomas caught 12 touchdowns and accumulated 966 receiving yards last season. Texas Tech returns Williams, who supplemented his production from scrimmage with 242 kickoff-return yards and a touchdown. The Red Raiders also feature preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year A.J. Holmes Jr., whose interior disruption can create sacks, turnovers and short fields.
Baylor needs comparable impact from its own playmakers. Colorado transfer Dre’lon Miller recorded 309 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in 2025 while working at receiver and running back. His versatility gives offensive coordinator Jake Spavital another way to manufacture favorable matchups around Lagway and Pendergrass.
The Bears also must prevent one missed tackle, coverage bust or poor special-teams sequence from undoing an otherwise strong performance. Forcing BYU, Texas Tech and Houston to execute long drives increases the possibility of penalties, sacks and takeaways.
Baylor does not need to become the Big 12’s most talented team overnight. It needs Lagway to protect the football, its rebuilt front to correct a major weakness and its playmakers to produce the decisive moments in close games.
If the Bears accomplish those three objectives, their season-ending gauntlet can become a path to Arlington instead of the reason they fall short.
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.
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