Baylor Football: Behind Enemy Lines with the SMU Mustangs
After a tough Week 1 loss to Auburn, Baylor has a quick turnaround with another in-state matchup against a program on the rise. SMU will host Baylor, fresh off its first College Football Playoff appearance last year and looking to prove it belongs among Texas’ top programs as it transitions into ACC play. To get a sense of how the Mustangs view this matchup and the storylines at play, I sat down with Billy Embody, SMU’s beat reporter for On3. From Kevin Jennings’ dual-threat ability to SMU’s evolving backfield and the recruiting stakes tied to this game, here’s the view, behind enemy lines
Q: After seeing Baylor’s defense struggle to contain Jackson Arnold’s legs in Week 1, how do you think SMU views this matchup with Kevin Jennings, who’s even more dynamic as a runner? Do you expect the Mustangs to try to emulate some of that success on the ground and really test Baylor’s ability to handle a dual-threat quarterback?
Embody: In Week 1 for SMU, they did not run Kevin Jennings like they have in the past. You saw a big touchdown run last year against Louisville, which was one of the big turning points in that game, so I think they use Kevin Jennings' legs in this game, just seeing what Jackson Arnold did to that Baylor defense. Having to account for the quarterback for Baylor seems like it's something they're going to potentially have issues with, based on last week. Now, Dave Aranda could say, "[Auburn] killed us [with the quarterback runs], we've seen Kevin Jennings on tape, and we're not going to let that happen", and play more of a bear front and try and stop the run entirely and make Kevin Jennings throw it. I could see a world where Dave Aranda loads the box, plays a lot of deep coverage, and tries to keep everything in front of them. I feel like that's what they did against Auburn, they just didn't execute to the level they needed to. So, I do feel SMU will use him as a designed runner.
Q: Losing Brashard Smith is a big hit considering everything he brought as both a runner and a pass-catcher. From your perspective, do you see Miami transfer Chris Johnson Jr. stepping up to shoulder most of that production, especially given his explosiveness and pedigree, or is it more likely to be a by-committee approach in replacing Smith’s versatility?
Embody: I think SMU learned a lot about Chris Johnson Jr. in Week 1, probably the most
about him. Chris Johnson Jr. was really somebody who was just viewed as a really fast running back, an elite 100-meter type of time. And for SMU to get that type of shiftiness from him, even though it
was against an East Texas A&M-type of opponent, said a lot. And so I think for SMU, they're
going to lean on Chris Johnson Jr. I also think they're going to lean on TJ Harden, the UCLA transfer
as well. I also think Derek McFall is somebody that they're still high on and they're still hoping he pans out. Obviously, he didn't have the best week one showing like those two other guys did as far as
pop. But yes, I think Chris Johnson Jr. is probably the guy who has got a chance to maybe be the
highest upside back that they have outside of Derek McFall. I think Derek McFall is somebody that they're still high on and they're still hoping he pans out. But I still think they're a running back by committee type of approach right now.
Q: How important do you think this Baylor game is from a recruiting standpoint, especially with SMU gaining real traction since entering the ACC? And to what extent do factors like the program’s location inside Dallas city limits, along with the backing of wealthy alums and boosters, play into the recruiting momentum they’ve built both in the high school ranks and the portal in this NIL era?
Embody: As far as recruiting, this is a big game for both programs. To be able to have this win at least for hanging over the other team's head, I think, is a really, really big deal in recruiting, just from a direction of the program. Because if SMU wins, then you have wins over Baylor, and you have a win over TCU last year. You have a college football playoff appearance, and you have a way to then show that you are dominating the state of Texas. Maybe Texas A&M and Texas are, of course, right there. But, Texas has got that college football playoff appearance. But then, it's SMU. So for SMU, it's a huge, huge deal to have this win if they can get it. And for Baylor, they've got to get it to just show that their program is in the right direction to recruit. Otherwise, they're just going to see it as kind of another average Baylor season, because they lose to SMU, they lose to Auburn, and that would have a lot of questions around Dave Aranda's future as well.
Saturday’s game is SOLD OUT ‼️ pic.twitter.com/2YLVJk0k6V
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) September 4, 2025
Q: Coming off last year’s College Football Playoff appearance, what’s the realistic expectation for this season? Is it fair to say the standard has become competing for the playoff every year, or will 7–8 win type of seasons satisfy the fan base as the program adjusts to the grind of the ACC? How does this Baylor matchup factor into season expectations, with tough matchups like at Clemson and vs. Miami coming later in the season?
Embody: The realistic expectation for SMU, is to get back to Charlotte, and I think that's realistic. I don't think Week 1 gave anybody a lot of positivity around that. But it's a long season. SMU last year was able to circle the wagons, make changes, and then go on and win, That's something this coaching staff has shown the ability to do.
The standard is eight wins at a minimum for SMU. They've got to win their fair share of the Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Baylor, and TCU type of games to get to that number. And if you can win some of those, you're going to be in a position to be one of the top teams in the ACC. It's can you make the plays when you need to, overcome adversity to then win the games that maybe you shouldn't. Like last year, they beat Duke, but other than that, they really weren't challenged in ACC play during the regular season. But for SMU, it's realistic to go back to the college football playoff when you have a quarterback like Kevin Jennings. It's very similar to Baylor in that it's realistic that they can win the Big 12 because they have Sawyer Robertson.
If SMU has the type of season they expect from Kevin Jennings, they'll be right back in the hunt for the college football playoff and the ACC championship. And I think as far as taking away from this game, if SMU beats Baylor, obviously you feel better about Clemson, Miami, and Louisville. If you don't, depending on how it looks, then you kind of know what you have to work on. With the Clemson loss, SMU did find answers in that second half against them last year. So those are things that they can take away. But then Miami is another revamped team that will be certainly looking to make some things happen this year with Carson Beck at the helm.
Q: From the SMU side, how do fans and people around the program view Baylor right now, especially in the wake of that primetime Week 1 loss to Auburn? Is this being looked at as a relatively easy winnable game that could reinforce SMU’s standing, or more as a tricky matchup that still carries a lot of respect?
Embody: I still think it's a tricky game. And it's tricky because you do have the Southwest Conference rivalry angle. You have a lot of kids that have played each other, a lot of kids that have certainly heard a lot about this type of a game from the past, and from the people inside the program and around the program like boosters. But as far as how the SMU side views Baylor, it views it as a tricky game because you have Sawyer Robertson at the helm of that offense. You do have some skilled position players that are nice.
matchup nightmare 🫣 @mtrigg_ #SicEm pic.twitter.com/EMByfyktHx
— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) August 30, 2025
But at the same time, the defense didn't look good in Week 1. So for SMU fans, there's that balance of overexposure where you probably don't feel great about how the game's going to play out because it was kind of a lackluster showing in Week 1, but at the same time, you won very easily over East Texas A&M, it wasn't an issue. So kind of that balance there is something to walk. People are nervous about this game, but it's certainly viewed as a winnable game by SMU fans. But if they don't take care of business, Baylor can come into forward and beat them.
Q: What’s your prediction on how this one plays out? If you could, could you give a score prediction, or at least a projected margin of victory for either side?
Embody: I think whoever wins this game is going to win by 10, and I think that's going to be SMU. I think they have the quarterback run game. I think they have a running back room that's going to be able to move the football, Kevin Jennings, that wide receiver room, and that tight end room that really didn't get utilized in Week 1. I think they're going to be able to find ways to move the ball in ways that Hugh Freeze and Auburn didn't in the passing game. I really think this is a potential breakout performance for Kevin Jennings throwing the football and moving this offense.
I just have zero confidence in Baylor's defense right now, especially with the injury to Jackie Marshall, to stop SMU. And that is certainly a concern for Baylor on their side, I'm sure, too. SMU's defense, the secondary, is going to have to step up in a big way to limit the explosive plays. But if SMU keeps everything ahead of it in front of them, they'll be able to make Baylor work the entire length of the field. And there will be times when Baylor will score, and there will be times where they'll look explosive. But at the same time, can they do it consistently enough against what I think is a better offense than Auburn's in SMU to make that happen? That's the big question. Baylor's offense is going to have to come ready to play with consistency. And if not, they might just not be able to keep up with SMU's offense.
So, I think SMU wins 42- 32.
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.