Baylor Football Bowl Projections Include Potential Reunion With Former Coach
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Saturday’s 42-31 Homecoming win over Iowa State made Baylor bowl eligible at 6-3. The Bears have three games left to improve their postseason position, starting Saturday at No. 12 BYU.
This week’s five projections put Baylor in four bowls, with both ESPN analysts picking the Kinder’s Texas Bowl.
Kinder’s Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Missouri or Oklahoma
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Bonagura moved his Baylor-Missouri matchup from Memphis to Houston. The primary concern for Baylor would be Jamal Roberts, who cleared 1,000 rushing yards before Missouri played Texas. After giving up 182 yards to Iowa State’s Aidan Flora, Baylor would have plenty to clean up before facing Roberts.
Texas showed how to make things harder on Missouri. The Longhorns held Roberts to 66 yards on 19 carries and completed 28 of 38 passes, even as Missouri recorded three sacks and forced three fumbles in its 34-20 loss. Quick throws underneath would let DJ Lagway get the ball out before Missouri’s pass rush arrives and force the Tigers to tackle in space.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach kept Baylor in Houston but swapped Florida with former Big 12 foe Oklahoma, which just beat the Gators 23-7. The Sooners kept Florida's offense off the field, limiting them to 203 yards and two third-down conversions. In Jason Witten’s first game calling plays, the Sooners put together an 89-yard touchdown drive on 20 plays, taking 12:45 off the clock.
John Mateer led Oklahoma with 56 rushing yards in Gainesville. If Baylor’s edge rushers get too far upfield, Mateer can step through the pocket and turn a third-down stop into another set of downs. The Bears won the last meeting 38-35 in Norman in 2022.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Jan. 2): Auburn
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford projects a rematch of Baylor’s season opener against Auburn. Lagway threw for 333 yards and Gavin Freeman had 154 receiving yards in the 17-16 loss in Atlanta. The Bears got within a point on Freeman’s touchdown with nine seconds left, then missed the two-point try. In a rematch, the priority would be turning more of those yards into points before the final drive.
Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown threw for 259 yards in the opener and scored Auburn’s go-ahead touchdown on an 11-yard run. Against Arkansas on Saturday, he accounted for three second-half touchdowns, including a 28-yard pass on third-and-12 after escaping pressure. Even on obvious passing downs, Baylor would have to defend Brown as a runner until the ball leaves his hand.
Cactus Bowl (Dec. 26): Nebraska
Athlon Sports sends Baylor to Tempe to face Matt Rhule, who took the Bears from one win in 2017 to 11 wins and a Sugar Bowl appearance in 2019. The timing would make the reunion especially interesting as Baylor goes through another coaching transition.
Nebraska has lost four straight after a 5-0 start, but Anthony Colandrea has kept the Huskers in games. He threw for 284 yards against Illinois, including a 51-yard touchdown to Jacory Barney Jr. The Huskers gained 426 yards but scored only 13 points, suggesting Baylor could give up plenty of yards and still win this matchup if it keeps Colandrea from extending drives on third and fourth down.
Independence Bowl (Dec. 22): Oregon State
The Athletic projects Baylor to face Oregon State in Shreveport. The Beavers scored at least 48 points in three straight games in October, so there’s more to their offense than the 42-21 loss to Texas State might suggest. Jesse Legree had 99 receiving yards in that game, though Oregon State’s two quarterbacks combined for two interceptions and no touchdown passes.
Baylor’s clearest advantage would be on the ground. Texas State ran for 386 yards, including 196 from Torrance Burgess Jr., and converted 10 of 15 third downs. Baylor just ran for 194 against Iowa State, with Lagway accounting for 119 and Ryelan Morris scoring twice. If Baylor can stay ahead of the chains with both runners, Lagway won’t have to carry the offense on obvious passing downs.
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Blake Hollingsworth is a Baylor University graduate who began covering sports with the Baylor Roundup yearbook, where he wrote about Baylor athletics. He later worked as a reporter for the Waco Tribune-Herald, covering breaking news and enterprise stories. A lifelong sports fan, Blake enjoys telling in-depth stories that give fans greater insight into the teams and athletes they follow.