Baylor Bowl Projections Include Potential DJ Lagway Reunion With Florida
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Baylor gave itself some breathing room in the chase for bowl eligibility with Friday’s 41-9 win at UCF.
After consecutive losses to TCU and Kansas, the Bears improved to 5-3 in Joe Klanderman’s debut as interim head coach. They need one victory over their final four games to become bowl eligible, with an opportunity to get there Saturday against Iowa State.
National projections reflect the improved outlook. Baylor appears in all five picks included in this week’s roundup, returning to Athlon Sports’ projected field after being left out last week.
Three projections would keep the Bears in Texas, while ESPN offers two potential SEC opponents. Here’s where each outlet has Baylor heading.
ESPN: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri or Texas Bowl vs. Florida
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura projects Baylor to face Missouri in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, while Mark Schlabach has the Bears playing Florida in the Texas Bowl in Houston.
A meeting with Florida would provide the biggest storyline of the group, giving DJ Lagway a chance to face his former team.
Lagway’s first season at Baylor has included an ankle injury, inconsistent accuracy and performances like Friday’s, when he threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns. Facing Florida would give him a chance to show how much he has progressed since leaving the Gators.
Bonagura’s Missouri projection would also give Baylor another opportunity against SEC competition after its season-opening 17-16 loss to Auburn. Either matchup would provide a meaningful test for a team hoping to finish a turbulent season on a positive note.
Last week, Bonagura projected Baylor to face FAU in the First Responder Bowl, while Schlabach had the Bears playing Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
CBS Sports: First Responder Bowl vs. FAU
CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford projects Baylor to face FAU in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas, replacing his previous pick of Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Dallas would give Baylor fans an easy trip, although FAU wouldn’t generate the same interest as Florida or Missouri.
Through eight games, Caden Veltkamp has completed 71.8% of his passes for 2,536 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Baylor’s pass rush would need to disrupt his timing against an offense averaging 37.8 points per game.
FAU allows 256 rushing yards per game and 6.2 yards per carry, making this an appealing matchup for Ryelan Morris and the Bears’ other running backs. Establishing the run would also help Baylor control possession and keep Veltkamp off the field.
Athlon Sports: First Responder Bowl vs. Penn State
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan also sends Baylor to Dallas, but projects Penn State as the opponent.
Lassan excluded the Bears after their losses to TCU and Kansas. Now, he has them returning to the postseason against one of the more recognizable programs in college football.
Penn State’s defense would present a much different challenge than FAU’s. Through eight games, the Nittany Lions allow 18.6 points and 296.3 yards per game, including just 141.4 passing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed only 53.6% of their passes with six touchdowns and nine interceptions, giving Lagway considerably less room for error.
The more promising approach could be on the ground, where Penn State allows 154.9 yards per game. Consistent rushing production would help Baylor avoid obvious passing situations and give Lagway more manageable downs against a defense that has made passing difficult.
College Football News: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
College Football News projects Baylor to face Army in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth.
Beyond another convenient destination for Baylor fans, this matchup would give the Bears’ defense a different challenge against Army’s option offense.
Baylor held UCF to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts, but defending Army requires more than winning at the line of scrimmage. Defenders would need to stay disciplined with their assignments, since pursuing the wrong ball carrier can leave an opening for the quarterback or pitch man.
First, the Bears need another win. Beating Iowa State on Saturday would settle bowl eligibility before a closing stretch against BYU, Texas Tech and Houston, giving Baylor a chance to spend the rest of November improving its postseason destination.
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Blake Hollingsworth is a Baylor University graduate who began covering sports with the Baylor Roundup yearbook, where he wrote about Baylor athletics. He later worked as a reporter for the Waco Tribune-Herald, covering breaking news and enterprise stories. A lifelong sports fan, Blake enjoys telling in-depth stories that give fans greater insight into the teams and athletes they follow.