Baylor’s Brutal Final Stretch Will Make or Break the 2026 Season

Baylor’s 2026 schedule gives the Bears a chance to build momentum early, but a brutal final three games could define the season and Dave Aranda’s future.

Dave Aranda on the sideline against UCF last season. | Raymond Carlin III, Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Baylor Football schedule has been out for a little while, and the overall consensus is that it is a reasonably manageable schedule for the team. The 2025 schedule was difficult early on, but then lightened up on the back end. The season didn't play out like that, though, with Baylor going 4-2 in the first six games and then finishing 1-5 in their last six games.

The 2025 season was quite the disappointment, the 2026 team has a lot of work to do to gain trust back from the fans. | Data Skrive

The 2026 schedule is different, though; the beginning seems somewhat straightforward, then it finishes with a difficult stretch of games. If Baylor can get through the front stretch of their season on a positive note, they will have a difficult final three games to push them towards a good bowl game or, if we are being optimistic, the conference championship game.

They start the season with a difficult game at Auburn, but following that are three very winnable games against Prairie View A&M, Louisiana Tech, and Colorado. Arizona State and TCU are after that, and the dreamer in me says that both those teams are trending down and the Bears can possibly split those games. If all goes well, Baylor could be 4-2 through the first six games.

The next three games are Kansas, UCF, and Iowa State, another three games that will be very winnable. Baylor has a real path to being 7-2 through nine games.

Baylor played one of their best games of the year last season against UCF. | Raymond Carlin III, Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Final Stretch

Baylor finishes the season against three preseason AP top 25 ranked opponents. They start this brutal stretch with a game in Provo against BYU in mid-November. BYU will undoubtedly be strong again this year, and Baylor struggled last time they were in Provo in 2022.

Josh Cameron had a awesome game in 2024 against Texas Tech where the Bears walked into Lubbock and scored 59 points. | via Baylor Athletics

They then welcome Texas Tech to McLane Stadium in what will be a heated rivalry game, especially if Baylor is strong. Tech will be coming in looking to seal their spot in the conference championship games, and Baylor fans will be livid if Tech walks in and beats down on the Bears like they did the last time they were in Waco.

Baylor then finishes the season against the University of Houston. Houston finished their season strong last year, capping off their regular season with a win at McLane Stadium. Baylor now will have to finish their season on the road in Houston in a game that will undoubtedly have questionable attendance, but it may have conference championship implications for both teams if the season goes as planned.

Baylor TE Michael Trigg with the one-handed grab vs. Houston in 2024 at TDECU Stadium | Via: Twitter

This three-game stretch will define Baylor's season. If Coach Aranda makes it to the tenth game, these three games will make or break his career as the head coach of Baylor. If the Bears win in ridiculous fashion, which has been the norm over the past few years, Aranda will almost 100% be gone at the end of the season. If Baylor can grab a win or two and finish the season with eight or more wins, we could be in for another year of Coach Aranda in 2027.

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