Sweet 16 Final Score Predictions for Every Game (Duke on Upset Watch, Back Michigan?)

A long few days remain until the NCAA Tournament resumes, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some early predictions to make!

There are eight great matchups set for Thursday and Friday in the Sweet 16, and only one games has a double-digit spread – Alabama vs. Michigan – at this point in the week.

I’ve decided to predict the final score of every Sweet 16 game, using the latest betting odds as a guide. There has been some odds movement since the lines opened on Monday, so bettors will want to make sure they’re getting the best number possible ahead of Thursday’s action.

Final Score Predictions for Every Sweet 16 Game

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas vs. Purdue Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Purdue -6.5 (-122)
Total: 148.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

This line has moved a point in favor of the Longhorns, but Purdue’s elite offense (No. 1 in KenPom) may be too much for Texas to overcome. The Longhorns have pulled off some nice wins since the First Four, but they rank outside the top-100 in both opponent effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage (249th).

That sets up well for the Boilermakers, who have a veteran core led by Braden Smith. Purdue isn’t a great defensive team, but the offensive end is where it has a ton of advantages, especially since Texas ranks 350th in opponent turnover rate. If the Longhorns can’t turn the Boilermakers over, I’ll bet on the better offense to win this game.

Score Prediction: Purdue 80, Texas 72

Iowa vs. Nebraska Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
Total: 132.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

These teams split their two meetings during the regular season, and Iowa may be able to take advantage of the Cornhuskers on the glass after knocking off Florida in the Round of 32.

Florida is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, yet the Hawkeyes outrebounded them and forced 11 turnovers in Sunday’s win. Nebraska doesn’t rebound well on the offensive glass (311th in the country in offensive rebound rate), so we should see a lot of one-and-done possessions in this Sweet 16 matchup.

The Hawkeyes are going to have their hands full with Nebraska’s shooting, but the Cornhuskers allow a ton of 3-point attempts (361st in opponent 3-point rate) despite holding opponents to 30.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Iowa’s offense is super efficient – 18th in effective field goal percentage – and I think it is live to pull off an upset.

Score Prediction: Iowa 68, Nebraska 65

Arkansas vs. Arizona Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Arizona -8.5 (-105)
Total: 166.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

These are two elite offenses, as Arizona is fourth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency while the Razorbacks clock in at No. 5.

Darius Acuff has become the star of the tournament for John Calipari’s team, but can he score enough to hold off an Arizona team that has one of the deeper rosters in college basketball?

I would not be surprised if Arkansas covers since it has such an elite offense (14th in eFG%, No. 1 in turnover rate), but the Razorbacks allowed 78 points to Hawaii and 88 to High Point. This should be a high-scoring game, and I’ll trust the No. 1-seeded Wildcats to pull away with a win.

Score Prediction: Arizona 89, Arkansas 84

Illinois vs. Houston Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Houston -3.5 (-105)
Total: 139.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Arguably the game of the week, the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini take on the No. 2 Houston Cougars where the winner will be the clear favorite to take the South Region.

Both teams have dominated so far in the NCAA Tournament, and they’re No. 4 (Houston) and No. 6 (Illinois) in KenPom’s latest rankings. Both teams love to slow the pace, but the Fighting Illini do have a better offense (No. 2 in KenPom) this season.

However, this game may come down to a few possessions, and the Cougars have a major advantage in opponent turnover rate (13th in the country) over the Fighting Illini (365th in the country). Both teams are in the top 10 in the country in turnover rate on offense, but if the Houston defense wreaks enough havoc on Keaton Wagler and company, it could swing this game.

Score Prediction: Houston 70, Illinois 68

St. John's vs. Duke Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Duke -6.5 (-114)
Total: 141.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

I’m planting my flag on this: St. John’s will upset Duke.

St. John’s is eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage and 40th in opponent turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils’ biggest weakness comes with the turnover battle, as they are 127th in turnover rate and outside the top-100 in opponent turnover rate this season.

The Blue Devils have not looked nearly as effective with Caleb Foster out of the lineup, and Duke nearly lost to Siena before struggling in the first half against TCU in the Round of 32.

The Johnnies’ offense is a concern, but if Duke wants to battle down low and play a low-scoring game, it plays right into the Red Storm’s hands.

Score Prediction: St. John’s 71, Duke 68

Alabama vs. Michigan Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Michigan -10.5 (-105)
Total: 175.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Michigan has been dominant so far in the NCAA Tournament, and it should be able to get whatever it wants against an Alabama team that is 60th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Crimson Tide are No. 3 in offense, but they have a little less firepower without Aden Holloway. Michigan has the No. 6 defense and the No. 2 offense – per KenPom – in the country. It should be able to knock off the Crimson Tide, who are 358th in opponent turnover rate and outside the top-100 in opponent 3-point percentage.

Score Prediction: Michigan 93, Alabama 82

Michigan State vs. UConn Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: UConn -1.5 (-105)
Total: 135.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Can Tom Izzo’s club win this matchup between coaching titans?

It’s hard not to love what the Spartans have done so far in the NCAA Tournament, and Jeremy Fears is the steady guard that could lead this team on a long run. Meanwhile, UConn has dealt with injuries to Jaylin Stewart and Silas Demary Jr., failing to cover against Furman before pulling away late against UCLA.

The Huskies are a little too reliant on Tarris Reed for my liking, and KenPom actually has the Spartans ahead of the Huskies in the latest rankings.

Ultimately, UConn’s offense is what draws me away, as it ranks 190th in turnover rate and 133rd in 3-point percentage.

Score Prediction: Michigan State 72, UConn 68

Tennessee vs. Iowa State Final Score Prediction for Sweet 16

Spread: Iowa State -4.5 (-106)
Total: 138.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Iowa State profiles as a real national championship contender, ranking seventh in KenPom heading into the Sweet 16. It has two convincing wins so far in the NCAA Tournament, but oddsmakers have it favored by just 4.5 against a red-hot Tennessee team.

Rick Barnes’ teams have struggled in the second weekend in the past, and Volunteers offense (151st in eFG%) may struggle against an Iowa State team that is No. 5 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The loss of Joshua Jefferson was big for the Cyclones, but they turned in one of the most dominant second halves of the Round of 32, blowing past a Kentucky team that swept Tennessee in the regular season.

I’ll give the edge to the Cyclones, but they can’t afford another slow start like they had against Kentucky.

Score Prediction: Iowa State 70, Tennessee 64

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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