Predicting Final Score of Baylor Bears vs. BYU in Week 11
After a dominant win over UCF and a thrilling win over Iowa State, the Bears are headed to Provo to take on No. 10 BYU. The Cougars are coming off a tough loss to Utah, but the playoff committee kept BYU in the top 12. That was a win for BYU in and of itself.
But that is just a moral victory, because a loss to Baylor would ruin BYU's chances of making the playoff. Baylor is also playing for more than just pride. With two conference losses, the Bears have a shot of winning out and making the Big 12 Championship Game under Joe Klanderman.
Here's how Baylor on SI sees the game going.
Trent Knoop
BYU's loss to Utah kept it in the top 12 for the College Football Playoff. The Cougars were a big winner in that aspect, but at the end of the day, neither of these teams can lose this game. Baylor still has an outside shot of making the Big 12 Championship Game and getting to the playoff.
The Bears' offense has been very good in recent weeks, but this game will come down to Baylor's defense getting enough pressure on Bear Bachmeier, forcing him to make mistakes. He threw four interceptions against Utah, and while that likely won't happen again, a couple could be a game-changer.
I'm a big believer in home-field advantage in a game like this, and unfortunately for Baylor, I see BYU edging out the Bears in a great game.
Final score: BYU 27, Baylor 24
Bennett Parker
Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a loss. BYU just seemed too untouchable with their deep pockets and dominant defenses. But outside of a late night, College Gameday win over Notre Dame, the Cougars have had a very questionable season. Their offense isn’t convincing, and the Baylor defense has traveled well. If the Bears can muster just three touchdowns, I think they can steal one in Provo. The Baylor defense makes its stand of the year to stem off the BYU attack on the deciding drive.
Final score: Baylor 24, BYU 20
Brad Teague
This is a game that could very easily go fantastic for either team, but also disastrously as well. Joe Klanderman said that this Bears team is done being wishy-washy, though on paper this game is more of a wash than it may seem; but BYU is not a pushover.
Formerly ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to UCF in double-overtime, the same UCF team that Baylor would proceed to dominate the very next week. If we’re going to judge this Baylor team based purely on Coach Klanderman’s time at the helm and not the rest of the season with Dave Aranda leading the charge, I have much more confidence than if we were to judge by the whole season’s metric.
This Bears team has been more energetic and dynamic since Coach Klanderman took over, and the O-line even managed to get through the entire game against Iowa State without committing a false-start penalty. Baylor has looked like a different team these past few weeks top to bottom.
Gavin Freeman is still “freaky” and remains an elite weapon on the Bears offense, but he can’t be solely responsible for the Bears' success. Just like against ISU, Baylor will need to utilize their entire arsenal of receivers to stay competitive. For all the talk that can be done about how good Baylor’s defense is (and they really are), BYU’s defense is nothing to scoff at either.
Baylor’s defense relies on disruption in the backfield and overall aggression to create negative plays for their opponents. BYU’s defense, however, is more focused on keeping the play in front of them and minimizing yards per play and keeping the “big plays” as low as they can. This could become a very defensively focused game by both teams waiting for one play to break loose to tip the scales.
Both teams have mobile quarterbacks, and given how recent games have gone for the Bears, they’re now willing to use theirs. Not only that, but both teams have a much more clear path to the Big 12 championship, and even the CFP by winning this game. The loser of this game will be effectively dismissed from CFP contention entirely.
I fully expect BYU to defend Provo with everything that they have. I also expect both Rhett Armstrong and Palmer Williams to be vital to Baylor’s success on Saturday; but I’m predicting that DJ Lagway will be the difference maker in this game, for better or worse. The Cougars will be the toughest defense Lagway will have faced since TCU, but unlike against the Horned Frogs, Lagway is healthy and will be able to run around and create space and opportunities. On the coin flip of “will he or won’t he?” I’m picking that Lagway finds a way to win this game for the Bears by scoring the go-ahead touchdown.
Final score: Baylor 26, BYU 17
Blake Hollingsworth
I’ve got BYU winning 24–21 in a defensive battle. Hopefully I’m wrong, but the Cougars have won 12 straight at home, including a 5-0 record this season. They have held four of those five opponents to 20 points or fewer.
BYU ranks 20th nationally in run defense, allowing 102.7 yards per game, and held Iowa State to 94 on the ground. The Cougars rank 50th in passing yards allowed at 199.6 per game and give up just 5.7 yards per attempt. If BYU’s linebackers step up to account for DJ Lagway as a runner, he could find some room to throw behind them off play-action.
I’m more worried about what happens when Bear Bachmeier gets out of the pocket. Iowa State ran for 216 yards against Baylor last week, and Bachmeier leads BYU with 395 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. The Bears can force third-and-long and still watch him move the chains if they leave him a lane to scramble.
I hope Baylor pulls off the upset. The Bears fell behind 17–7 against Iowa State before scoring 28 straight, and I’d like to see what they can do with an early lead in Provo. If they get a couple of stops early, I think they’ll have a shot to win it in the fourth quarter.
Final score: BYU 24, Baylor 21
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Trent is the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI and also serves as the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines on SI. His work has additionally been featured on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.
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Bennett is an undergrad student at Baylor University, studying journalism on the sports track. He is from the DFW area and grew up playing and watching sports, which inspired him to pursue sports writing.
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Blake Hollingsworth is a Baylor University graduate who began covering sports with the Baylor Roundup yearbook, where he wrote about Baylor athletics. He later worked as a reporter for the Waco Tribune-Herald, covering breaking news and enterprise stories. A lifelong sports fan, Blake enjoys telling in-depth stories that give fans greater insight into the teams and athletes they follow.
Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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