Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

The BYU Cougars have jumped all the way up to the No. 8 spot in the country, and they’re looking to stay undefeated – and in the mix to win the Big 12 – in Week 6 against the Iowa State Cyclones.

Iowa State is in a bit of a transition year under Jimmy Rogers, winning three of its first five games, including a three-point victory over West Virginia in Week 5. The Cyclones are 0-2 against ranked teams in 2026, losing to Iowa and Utah, and they’re sizable underdogs on the road on Friday night.

BYU hasn’t faced a real tough test so far this season, but both the Cougars and the Texas Tech Red Raiders appear primed to earn a College Football Playoff spot in 2026.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier isn’t in the Heisman conversation so far, yet he’s combined for 10 total scores (six passing, four rushing) in four games.

Can he lead the Cougars to a 5-0 start straight up and against the spread on Friday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big 12 showdown.

Iowa State vs. BYU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Iowa State +10.5 (-112)
BYU -10.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Iowa State: +330
BYU: -425

Total

48.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa State vs. BYU How to Watch

Date: Friday, Oct. 9
Time: 10:15 p.m. EST
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Iowa State record: 3-2
BYU record: 4-0

Iowa State vs. BYU Key Player to Watch

Bear Bachmeier, Quarterback, BYU

Even though the Cougars are a top-10 team in the country, I haven’t come away from this season super impressed with Bear Bachmeier.

He threw for just 62 yards in bad weather in Week 5 against TCU, and he’s only thrown for 704 yards and six scores across four games. Now, he is a dual-threat quarterback, rushing for 130 yards and four scores.

Running back LJ Martin left last week’s game with an injury, so a lot could end up on Bachmeier’s shoulders against a frisky Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 53rd in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on defense, but they’ve struggled against the run (95th in EPA/Rush) in five games.

Iowa State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Last season, these teams combined for 68 points in their meeting, but this Iowa State team had a different coach (Matt Campbell) and quarterback (Rocco Becht) in that matchup.

So, I don’t want to put too much stock into that.

Iowa State has a three-point loss to a ranked Iowa team and a 14-point loss to a ranked Utah team this season, and it has finished with UNDER 48.5 points in both of those games. Through five weeks, the Cyclones have fallen short of this number in three games.

Meanwhile, BYU combined for just 27 points in bad weather in Week 5 and also failed to clear this line against Arizona.

I expect the Cougars to lean on their running game – even if Martin is out – since they’re third in EPA/Rush and first in rush success rate while Iowa State has really struggled to defend the run.

The Cougars have covered in every game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they do again on Friday, but I like the UNDER a little more.

BYU’s defense should be able to slow down a Cyclones offense that is 61st in EPA/Play and 93rd in third/fourth down success rate this season. .

Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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