Baylor Football Staff Picks: Over/Under Predictions For Week 11 vs. BYU
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Baylor is looking to emerge inside the College Football Playoff top 25 this weekend with a big win in Provo. It's not going to be easy, of course. The Cougars are ranked No. 10 in the playoff rankings and they are coming off a tough loss to Utah on the road.
BYU can't afford another loss, and Baylor will have to play nearly flawlessly to win the game. But don't count out the hot Bears, who are 2-0 since Joe Klanderman took over as the interim head coach.
Here are four prop bets that we came up with, along with our pick.
DJ Lagway O/U 230.5 passing yards
Trent Knoop - Over
BYU has only allowed two teams to clear the 231 threshold this season and that was CJ Carr of Notre Dame and Keyone Jenkins of UCF. But Lagway has cleared the mark five times this season and he even threw for 256 yards against a good TCU pass defense. If Baylor is going to stay in this game, it's obvious that Lagway has to throw the ball and do it well.
Brad Teague - Over
Since Joe Klanderman has taken over as interim head coach for the Bears, DJ Lagway has shown that he’s capable of living up to his preseason hype. With his willingness to take off and run when space is available, it should open up the BYU defense to allow for easier passing lanes and open space in the zone defenses as the Cougars have to account for Lagway’s legs as well as his arm. The Cougar defense hasn’t allowed many passing yards this season, and Lagway has shown vulnerability at times against blanket zones. However, I expect Lagway to use his skill set to find enough openings in the BYU defense.
Baylor’s defense forces 1.5 turnovers
Trent Knoop - Over
While BYU is inside the top 12 and a current playoff team, the Cougars don't take care of the ball well. This past weekend, Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions, and BYU has turned the ball over at least two times in four games. The Bears have forced at least two turnovers in five games this season. If Baylor's defensive line can get pressure on Bachmeier, he will turn the ball over.
Brad Teauge - Under
Baylor’s defense has been incredible this season, ranking near the top nationally in SKs and TFLs, but even though they’re positive in the turnover margin on the year, turnovers haven’t been occurring in extraordinary amounts. While I do expect the Bears to come away with at least one turnover, I do not see more than that happening (though I hope I’m wrong).
Bear Bachmeier O/U 225.5 passing yards
Trent Knoop - Over
Baylor has one of the best passing defenses in the Big 12, but it's hard to ignore that Jaylen Raynor threw for 256 yards against the Bears this weekend. The only thing that makes me question going over this week is that LJ Martin is back for the Cougars and he could take pressure off of Bear Bachmeier. Even so, Baylor could allow a couple of big plays and that would propel Bachmeier's total.
Brad Teague - Over
If Baylor’s defense can limit the big plays from Bear Bachmeier and the BYU offense, they stand a strong chance at keeping Bachmeier’s numbers low on the day. However, while Baylor has been impressive with their defensive stats, they’ve also allowed a lot of passing yards in the meantime, sitting near the bottom of the Big 12 in passing yards allowed. I fully expect the Bears defense to make Bachmeier’s day a tough day at the office, but they don’t keep him under 226 passing yards.
Gavin Freeman O/U 0.5 TDs scored
Trent Knoop - Under
As good as Gavin Freeman is, in the last five games, he has one touchdown. Freeman is excellent, but his touchdowns usually come from yards after catch. Unless the Bears have a long play to Freeman, it seems like DJ Lagway favors the tight ends and bigger wide receivers inside the red zone.
Brad Teague - Under
He’s among the most productive wide receivers currently in the game, but he doesn’t have a proportional amount of touchdowns like his fellow high reception targets like Jeremiah Smith or Malachi Toney (recently tied at 13 TDs each). And while Gavin Freeman has shown the ability to score if he can find and opening, he’s not been the “go-to” guy near the goal line for the Bears. While I would love to see Freeman score a touchdown against BYU, I don’t think that he does, as TE Tony Livingston and WR Louis Brown IV have been more favored as targets in the red zone.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Trent is the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI and also serves as the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines on SI. His work has additionally been featured on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.
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Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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