How Baylor’s non-conference slate could make (or break) the 2025 season
While most Power 4 conference teams are content with easing into the season (looking at you, Georgia and Penn State), Dave Aranda’s Baylor squad will face some high-level tests before even hitting conference play. Three of their first four games will be against Power Four opponents, including two playoff teams from last season, including one bubbling in-state rival.
With so much riding on August and September, I decided to break down the three most important games on BU’s schedule.
Week 1 vs. Auburn
One of the most highly anticipated Week 1 matchups, Baylor welcomes Auburn into McLane Stadium, in what will be the beginning of a crucial and pivotal third year for Hugh Freeze leading the Tigers. I saw one YouTube comment hilariously refer to this as the "Jarrett Stidham Bowl", but it will also feature a battle between two Texas quarterbacks trying to take command of their respective programs. For the Bears, senior QB Sawyer Robertson returns to his home state spotlight.The Lubbock native and Mississippi State transfer, Robertson brings size, arm strength, and a full offseason of first-team reps in Waco. He’ll face off against Jackson Arnold, the former five-star from Denton Guyer who arrives at his second SEC stop after a rocky run at Oklahoma. While Arnold’s career hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, he still has the talent that made him a 5-star recruit coming out in 2023—with perhaps the best weapons he’s ever had at his disposal.
Auburn’s wideout combo of Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. and sophomore phenom Cam Coleman might be one of the nation’s most explosive pairings. Singleton comes to Auburn after two 700+ receiving yards seasons, while Coleman, another former 5-star, flashed big-time potential as a true freshman, with nearly 600 yards and 8 TDs. If Robertson and the Bears want to keep pace, they’ll need to control tempo, and keep Singleton and Coleman in check. Regardless, this will be a true litmus test for both teams to see what they should expect for the rest of the season.
Week 2: at SMU
If Week 1 is about exposure and establishing a baseline Week 2 is about identity, recruiting, and bragging rights. Baylor will head just an hour north on I-35 to Dallas to face SMU—a team that’s no longer the plucky Group 5 of outside, but a legitimate ACC contender fresh off a playoff berth, with a burgeoning NIL budget. At quarterback, it’s another Texas clash: Robertson vs. Kevin Jennings, the homegrown leader out of South Oak Cliff High School who’s become the face of SMU’s rise. Jennings is a composed, dual-threat playmaker who thrives in tempo and has complete command of a veteran-led offense. (Let’s just throw the Penn State playoff tape in the trash). But beyond the X’s and O’s, this is a recruiting battle disguised as a football game. Baylor can’t afford to let SMU dominate the DFW spotlight. A win, especially on SMU’s field, stakes BU’s claim as still the “real” football program in the DFW/Central Texas area, with SMU’s still in its infancy as a power conference program, and, Baylor building on the momentum Aranda and Co. have created with their 2026 recruiting class. A loss opens the floodgates—on the field and in living rooms across North Texas.
The Baylor Bears are takin' a ride up 35🚗💨
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) May 14, 2024
Check Out the Press Release⬇️https://t.co/sAWZoINyLt#PonyUpDallas pic.twitter.com/t8jHW9X2hQ
Week 4: vs. Arizona State
After a Week 3 tuneup vs. Samford, the final game of Baylor’s early gauntlet may be its most dangerous. Arizona State is coming off a surprise playoff run in 2024, and features a high-flying offensive attack headlined by quarterback Sam Leavitt and All-American wideout Jordan Tyson. Leavitt is the ultimate stress test for Dave Aranda’s defense—a mobile quarterback with a rocket arm and an uncanny feel for creating outside structure. His top target, Tyson, is a physical, jump ball-dominant wideout cut from the Julio Jones cloth. Expect junior CB Caden Jenkins, a lengthy 6’1 DB himself, to draw the assignment in man situations, and how Jenkins handles Tyson will go a long way to determine the outcome of this game. However, containing Leavitt’s legs will be just as important as defending his arm. That burden will fall on preseason All-Big 12 Bear defenders Keaton Thomas and Travion Barnes at linebacker and disruptive senior DT Jackie Marshall. The X-factor? Tulane transfer Matthew Fobbs-White. The Louisiana native should bring instant impact pass-rush juice, with a 91.3 PFF pass rush grade, 15 QB hurries, 7.5 TFLs, 4 sacks last year at Tulane. He could be key in either serving as a spy for Leavitt, or keeping the Sun Devils behind the chains by pressuring the pocket.
Starting to watch new Baylor addition Matthew Fobbs-White
— Travis Roeder (@Travis_Roeder) December 15, 2024
He's an interesting player. He's not your standard 6'3, 255lb edge. He's listed at 230 and that's probably generous.
But he uses all of that quickness to his advantage. He's No. 35. Quick feet, great change of direction pic.twitter.com/snKVwkGxHC
August and September will tell us everything we need to know about this Baylor squad going forward in 2025 - Auburn is the barometer, SMU is the battleground. Arizona State is the wildcard. Baylor’s season won’t be defined by what happens in the Big 12—it’ll be defined by how it survives the fire before conference play even begins.
Prediction: You’d be asking a lot for the Bears to take all three games, with me seeing as these are Baylor's three toughest games on the schedule. For Auburn, we’ve seen this script before -- lots of talent, perennial underachievers. I don’t think Jackson Arnold is any different than the last time we saw him at OU, and that means the QB edge is decidedly for the Bears. Given that, plus Dave Aranda having an entire off-season to scheme up ways to bother this Tigers offense, give me the Bears in a statement Week 1 victory.
In Week 2, coming off an intense Week 1, I could see some potential letdown. Losing Brashard Smith is huge for the Mustangs, but I think after a Week 1 tuneup vs. East Texas A&M, SMU will understand how important this game is, and this is one of the few times this season I projected Baylor to not have the advantage at QB.
As for Week 3, the only other time Baylor won’t have an advantage at QB, I’m curious to see how the Sun Devils will handle their first real opponent in 2025 without Skattebo (sorry, Mississippi State). As great as Leavitt is, he was always second on the scouting report in 2024, and I could see struggling, at least initially, with being the sole focus on defenses this year. That, and I see this Sun Devil as being a bit top-heavy, so I’ll give the Bears the slight edge at home in Week 4. 3-1 would look a TON different than 2-2 coming out of the nonconference slate for the Bears
Schedule Prediction:
Win vs. Auburn
Loss @ SMU
Win vs. Arizona State
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.