Boise State vs. No. 2 Oregon picks and predictions for Week 1

Boise State will kick off the 2026 college football season on Saturday with a difficult road matchup against No. 2 Oregon.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Mountain Time at Autzen Stadium. The non-conference showdown will air live on CBS.

The Broncos, who finished 9-5 overall last season and captured a third straight Mountain West title, are now in the Pac-12.

Big Ten power Oregon is coming off a 13-2 season and back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances.

The Ducks are favored by 24.5 points in Saturday’s matchup. The over/under is set at 51.5 points.

Can Boise State beat the odds and stay competitive against the Ducks for the second time in three seasons?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

Geoff Schwartz, FOX Sports: Oregon -24.5

Rationale: “Oregon is potentially the best team and best roster in the country, meaning this game should not be close. Oregon’s offense should be able to score whenever it wants, even with a change at coordinator. Quarterback Dante Moore should be ready to start his Heisman campaign with a full set of healthy skill guys. … It’s unlikely Boise State is able to score much against the Oregon defense without some help. The Ducks’ defensive line is the best in the country and BSU has to replace multiple all-conference offensive linemen. Boise State relies on its run game to help the quarterback, who is up and down at best,” Schwartz wrote.

Athlon Sports News Desk: Oregon 48, Boise State 21

Rationale: “We think Boise State’s against-the-spread struggles on the road continue in the new season. The Ducks should easily win and cover,” the publication wrote.

Nathan Beighle, Sportsbook Wire: Oregon -24.5

Rationale: “The Ducks obliterated opponents at home when massively favored last season. They were 6-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Boise State played just one game last season in which it was a double-digit underdog, covering in a 28-7 road loss against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It doesn’t have a lot of experience against top-tier foes, and (quarterback Maddux Madsen) is coming off a down season and will be facing a side with one of the best defensive tackles in the country, Bear Alexander,” Beighle wrote.

Iain MacMillan, Sports Illustrated: Under 51.5

Rationale: “When you think of Oregon, you think of Dante Moore and their offense, but it’s their defense that was the most impressive last season, ranking 11th in defensive success rate. With this Week 1 game being a matchup between two teams that were great defensively and are returning a majority of their starters, I’m going to bet the under and root for strong defensive play,” MacMillan wrote.

Geoff Clark, Yahoo Sports: Under 51.5

Rationale: “While most of the public expects a high-octane Ducks offense to dictate things, I’m expecting their defense to put the clamps on the Boise State Broncos and power the under,” Clark wrote.

Shehan Jeyarajah, CBS Sports: Under 51.5

Rationale: “Boise State gave Oregon a scare two years ago, but there’s no obvious dimension in which the Broncos can take advantage of the Ducks on a major road trip. The Ducks boast perhaps the best interior defensive line in college football and will shut down the Boise State running game. Expect a low-scoring affair that ends with a dominant—if not aesthetically pleasing—Oregon victory,” Jeyarajah wrote.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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