Breaking Down BYU Basketball's Chances to Make the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Feb 11, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; The Brigham Young Cougars bench reacts after a score late during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

The BYU basketball program is firmly on the bubble. After a slow start in conference play, the Cougars were on the wrong side of the bubble before a four-game winning streak propelled them into the projected NCAA Tournament field.

Over the last three games, BYU is 1-2 and back on the edge of the bubble. In this article, we'll break down BYU's chances to make the NCAA Tournament in 2025.

As of this writing, BYU has a 44.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament according to Team Rankings. With seven regular season games remaining, what does BYU need to do to improve their chances of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday?

The Path to 21 Wins

According to the projections by the good people over at Team Rankings, BYU's chances to make the tournament increase substantially if they reach 21 wins by Selection Sunday. At 20 wins, BYU's chances to make the tournament would be 15.5%. At 21 wins, BYU's chances would increase to 59.3%. That means BYU would need five more wins between now and Selection Sunday to feel good about getting into the tournament.

After winning at West Virginia on Tuesday night, BYU improved to 16-8 on the season. Using KenPom win probabilities, here are BYU's chances to get to 20 wins or more in the regular season:

• 20 wins or better (4-3 to close the regular season) - 54.1%
• 21 wins or better (5-2 to close the regular season) - 22.2%
• 22 wins or better (6-1 to close the regular season) - 4.7%
• 23 wins(7-0 to close the regular season) - 0.4%

KenPom's projected record for BYU at the end of the regular season is 20-11. In that scenario, BYU would need to win a game in the Big 12 tournament to have better than a 50% chance to make the NCAA Tournament.

The next two home games against Kansas State and Kansas are critical for BYU. If BYU sweeps its upcoming homestand, the odds to reach 21 wins in the regular season would be a coin toss at that point. To get to 21 wins after beating the Kansas schools, BYU would just need to protect home court against WVU and Utah and steal one game on the road against Arizona State, Arizona, or Iowa State.

If BYU loses to either Kansas or Kansas State, they will likely need to win a game in the Big 12 tournament to make the tournament (unless they pull off a road upset at Iowa State or at Arizona).

If BYU gets to 22 wins, they are essentially a lock to get in. Team Rankings gives BYU a 88.6% chance to make the tournament if they get to 22 wins. There are two paths to 22 wins for BYU:

1. Go 5-2 over the last 7 games and win one game in the Big 12 tournament
2. Go 4-3 over the last 7 games and win two games in the Big 12 tournament

Odds of Making a Run in the Tournament

If BYU gets to the tournament, what are they odds to make a run?

According to Team Rankings, here are BYU's chances to advance to each round:

• Get in the NCAA Tournament: 44.6%
• Round of 64: 42.3%
• Round of 32: 21.8%
• Sweet 16: 6.9%
• Elite 8: 2.8%
• Final 4: 0.9%
• National Championship: 0.3%
• Win National Championship: 0.1%