Five Ways BYU Can Be Top Four Seed in Big 12 Tournament
After a win over TCU, BYU is tied with Texas Tech and Kansas for fourth place in the Big 12. Due to tiebreaker rules, BYU would be the fifth seed in the Big 12 tournament if the season ended today. Cracking the top four is the goal, since the top four seeds get double byes in the Big 12 tournament.
Each team has two games remaining in conference play. Today, we're going over the five ways BYU can be a top four seed in the Big 12 tournament. According to our research, these are the only five ways BYU could be a top four seed.
First and foremost, there's no path to a top four seed if BYU loses twice. BYU needs to at least go 1-1 this week to have a chance to be in the top four. The odds are in BYU's favor to get at least one win. KenPom gives BYU a 92% chance to win at least one game this week.
1. BYU Wins Twice, Texas Tech Loses Once or More
BYU does not control its own destiny to get in the top four. In other words, going 2-0 over the last two games will not guarantee BYU a spot in the top four. The Cougars need some help. Primarily from Texas Tech.
The most simple way for BYU to crack the top four is to 1) beat both Iowa State and Oklahoma State and 2) Texas Tech lose to either Oklahoma State or Baylor. Regardless of what happens with Baylor or Kansas, BYU will be in the top four with two wins and at least one Texas Tech loss.
Using KenPom's win probabilities, BYU has a 28% chance of going 2-0. There's a 70% chance that Texas Tech will lose at least once. Therefore, there's a 20% chance this happens.
2. BYU Goes 1-1, Texas Tech Goes 0-2, Kansas Loses Once or More
Since BYU only has a 28% chance of going 2-0 this week, a 1-1 record over the last two games is much more likely. There's a 64% chance BYU will go 1-1 and an 8% chance BYU will go 0-2. Since it's most likely BYU ends up 1-1 this week, we'll spend most of our time talking about those 1-1 scenarios.
If BYU goes 1-1, the most simple path to a top four seed requires two things:
- Kansas loses at least one
- Texas Tech goes 0-2
In the scenario where BYU and Kansas go 1-1 AND Texas Tech goes 0-2, BYU and Kansas would be tied for fourth place and BYU would win the tiebreaker. Even if Texas or TCU goes 2-0 and creates a three-way or four-way tie for fourth, BYU would win the tiebreaker over Kansas, Texas, and TCU.
If BYU goes 1-1 and both Texas Tech and Kansas go 0-2, BYU would be in the top four outright.
This scenario isn't very likely. KenPom gives Texas Tech only a 19% chance to go 0-2 this week. Therefore, the chances of BYU going 1-1 (64% chance) AND Kansas losing once (86%) AND Texas Tech going 0-2 (19%) is just an 11% chance, when combined.
3. Baylor Goes 0-2, BYU Goes 1-1
If Baylor goes 0-2 and BYU goes 1-1, the Cougars would get the fourth seed IF Kansas wins at least one game and Texas Tech goes 1-1. Here's what would need to happen.
- BYU goes 1-1 in any way (64% chance)
- Kansas goes 1-1 in any way (70%)
- Texas Tech goes 1-1, loses to Oklahoma State and beats Baylor (18%)
- Baylor goes 0-2 (29% chance Baylor loses to Texas if they lose to Texas Tech)
That would create a five-way tie. Texas Tech would get the three seed and BYU would get the five seed. There's a 2% chance all of these things come together for BYU.
There's another scenario where BYU could go 1-1 and wouldn't need Kansas' help:
- BYU goes 1-1, beats Iowa State then loses to Oklahoma State (4% chance)
- Baylor goes 0-2 (14%)
This scenario is unlikely. There's less than a 1% chance of this happening.
4. BYU Edges Texas Tech in Five-Way Tie
Yes, you heard that right. A five-way tie for fourth place is possible. There's a myriad of scenarios where there could be a three-way or four-way tie for fourth place. In all those scenarios, BYU would not win the tie breaker if Texas Tech wins a game and, therefore, would not be a top four seed. There's only one way BYU goes 1-1 and wins the tiebreaker over Texas Tech: a five-way tie between BYU, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, and Texas.
In a multi-team tiebreaker scenario, the rules indicate the team with the highest winning percentage in a round-robin format of the tied teams would win. BYU would have the highest win percentage in this five-team round robin:
- BYU 3-1 (.750)
- Texas Tech 4-2 (.667)
- Kansas 2-2 (.500)
- Texas 2-3 (.400)
- TCU (.200)
Here's how a five-way tie could happen:
- BYU goes 1-1 in any way (64% chance)
- Kansas goes 1-1 in any way (70%)
- Texas Tech goes 1-1, beats Oklahoma State and loses to Baylor (33%)
- Texas goes 2-0 (18%)
- TCU goes 2-0 (55%)
Texas is the real kicker here. The Longhorns play at Baylor before they host Oklahoma in the regular season finale. KenPom gives the Longhorns just an 18% chance to go 2-0 in those games. Texas Tech would have to lose to Baylor, otherwise it would create a six-way tie including the five aforementioned teams and Baylor. Therefore, the odds of a five-way tie are very low. There's just a 2% chance that all five of these events go BYU's way.
5. BYU Gets the Three Seed in a Six-Way Tie
There's one scenario where BYU could go 1-1 and still get the three seed in the Big 12 tournament. A long list of things would have to go BYU's way for that to happen:
- BYU goes 1-1 in any way (64% chance)
- Kansas goes 1-1 in any way (70%)
- TCU goes 2-0 (55%)
- Texas Tech goes 1-1, loses to Oklahoma State and beats Baylor (18%)
- Texas goes 2-0 (18%)
- Baylor goes 0-2 (already baked into the Texas Tech and Texas probabilities)
In this scenario, BYU would get the three seed and Texas Tech would get the four seed. There's less than a 1% chance all of these things come together for BYU.
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