KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball at Baylor, Updates Projected Win Total

The Cougars desperately need a win on the road in Waco

Feb 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) reacts to a made three-point basket during the second half against the Houston Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

On Saturday, BYU will take on the Baylor Bears in Waco. The Cougars desperately need a win after losing four consecutive games. Up until this four-game losing streak, BYU had lost just two games all season.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Baylor. KenPom gives BYU a 55% chance to win with a projected final score of 83-81.

BYU has fallen all the way to 22nd in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor ranks 44th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 30th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 89th.

Before losing four-straight games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' have dropped all the way to 49th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• @ Baylor: 55% (BYU win probability)
• vs Colorado: 89%
• @ Arizona: 12%
• vs Iowa State: 44%
• vs UCF: 83%
• @ West Virginia: 61%
• @ Cincinnati: 64%
• vs Texas Tech: 63%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 4.7-3.3 in its final eight games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 21.7-9.3.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 17 games. With eight games remaining, BYU could win as many as 25 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, 23, or even 24 wins.

• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 99.5%
• 20 wins: 96.3%
• 21 wins: 83.8%
• 22 wins: 57.7%
• 23 wins: 26.7%
• 24 wins: 6.6%
• 25 wins: 0.5%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament have taken a nose dive over the last two weeks. At this point, that concern is secondary for Kevin Young and the BYU basketball team. The primary concern is to get better. If BYU gets better on the defensive end, the resume will take care of itself.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the 10th best odds to win the Big 12. Arizona is still the heavy favorite.

• Arizona: 71% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 47%
• Iowa State: 9%
• Kansas: 3%