KenPom Predicts BYU Basketball vs Houston in Big 12 Semifinals

Casey Lundquist | Mar 13, 2025

Mar 13, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Brigham Young Cougars center Keba Keita (13) reacts after a play during the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

On Tuesday, BYU set a Big 12 conference tournament record with 18 threes to take down Iowa State. For the first time since joining the Big 12, the Cougars will play in the conference semifinals on Friday night. BYU will take on 1-seed Houston.

KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU-Houston. KenPom gives BYU a 25% chance to win with an expected final score of 73-66.

ESPN BPI is less optimistic about BYU's chances to pull off the upset. ESPN BPI gives BYU a 19.4% chance to win.

The winner of BYU-Houston will advance to the conference championship game.

The last time these two teams met, Houston absolutely demolished BYU 86-55. BYU is an entirely different team since that game was played with a new starting lineup. These are the two hottest teams in the conference. BYU has won nine consecutive games and Houston has won 11 straight.

Injury to Watch

Houston star big man J'Wan Roberts left the quarterfinal matchup against Colorado with an ankle injury. Roberts' status for the BYU-Houston game has not been announced. If Roberts can't go, BYU's chances to beat Houston will increase substantially.

Roberts averages 11.4 points per game and he leads Houston with 6.4 rebounds per game. He is also one of the best rim protectors in the conference.