KenPom Predicts No. 13 BYU vs No. 1 Arizona, Updates Projected Win Total

KenPom predicts a top 15 showdown between BYU and Arizona

Jan 24, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) celebrates with guard Robert Wright III (1) during the second half against the Utah Utes at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

On Monday night, BYU basketball will host no. 1 Arizona. The Wildcats are 20-0 and have been dominant in conference play. The last time these two teams played each other, the Cougars beat the Wildcats in an instant classic in Tucson.

This time around, the home court advantage will favor BYU. The Cougars have a chance to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume and improve their seeding.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Arizona. KenPom gives BYU a 40% chance to win with a projected final score of 82-80.

BYU ranks 15th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wilcats rank 1st in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 4th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 3rd. On paper, Arizona has no weaknesses.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• vs Arizona: 40% (BYU win probability)
• @ Kansas: 36%
• @ Oklahoma State: 73%
• vs Houston: 54%
• @ Baylor: 65%
• vs Colorado: 92%
• @ Arizona: 17%
• vs Iowa State: 53%
• vs UCF: 84%
• @ West Virginia: 64%
• @ Cincinnati: 69%
• vs Texas Tech: 67%

KenPom predicts BYU will go 8-2-4.8 in its final 13 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 24.2-6.8.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 17 games. With 12 games remaining, BYU could win as many as 29 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 25, 26, or even 27 wins.

• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 100%
• 20 wins: 99.9%
• 21 wins: 99.0%
• 22 wins: 95.5%
• 23 wins: 85.6%
• 24 wins: 66.5%
• 25 wins: 41.5%
• 26 wins: 19.0%
• 27 wins: 5.8%
• 28 wins: 1.0%
• 29 wins: 0.1%

A reasonable goal for BYU would be to finish with 25 or 26 wins. That would put BYU at 25-6 or 26-5 on the season and firmly in position to get a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the fourth best odds to win the Big 12.

• Arizona: 72% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 35%
• Iowa State: 11%
• Texas Tech: 7%
• BYU 6%
• Kansas 3%

The Cougars are schedule to face Arizona and Kansas this week in two games that will be pivotal for both conference tournament and NCAA Tournament seeding.