Metrics Update: Did Taking a Knee Inside the 5 Really Hurt BYU's Eye Test?

The numbers are in following an impressive win for no. 11 BYU over the Arizona Wildcats, but was the 11-point margin enough? Here’s how BYU’s metrics and rankings moved after a decisive result Saturday afternoon.

How the AP Voters View BYU

BREAKING: College Football AP Poll🚨https://t.co/VY7Xt0iRq1 pic.twitter.com/5WNv1rtd72
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For all the hullaballoo about style points and knees inside the five, it didn’t seem to matter to the AP voters. BYU climbed four spots in the AP poll to 11th overall. That jump included leap-frogging two teams that won Saturday in Texas Tech and USC, making BYU both the highest ranked team in the Big 12 and west of Texas. Not a bad spot to be. 11th is BYU’s highest ranking this early in the season since BYU was ranked 7th in 2009.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 2 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/6ZRYM9JgpG pic.twitter.com/Ue7PTTmwKp
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Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 18

FPI: 18

FEI: 21

Average: 19

This is where the lack of style points are hurting BYU. BYU’s power ratings are honestly pretty low compared to how the humans view them, but looking at their peers, I don’t think we should wage wars against the robots just yet. Per SP+, BYU would be favored over the average FBS team by 15.4 points while the no. 10 power rated team, Tennessee, would be favored by 17.9 points. Therefore, the difference between BYU at 18 and Tennessee at 10 is less than a field goal on a neutral field. That’s a good spot to be at this point. For BYU to rise in this ranking, BYU has to outperform its rating. For example, BYU is favored over Colorado State by around 20 points in SP+. For BYU to rise in SP+, they need to outperform that projected spread. Preferably by a lot.

Why does any of this matter? Think of power ratings as the brand-biased eye test. If you’ve ever listened to a national college football podcast, they talk about betting spreads a lot. Particularly hypothetical spreads amongst potential playoff teams. This area has hurt BYU for years, especially last year. Texas Tech and Utah were predictive metric darlings last year and received the benefit of the doubt in the CFP rankings. Why? They beat the heck out of teams. For BYU to shake off the reputation of the little guy finding ways to win above its weight class, BYU needs to start out-performing metrics like these.

What might be most interesting in all of this is that the side of the ball the computers are not sold on just yet is the defense, not the offense. BYU’s offense ranks 18th in SP+, 10th in FPI, and 16th in FEI compared to 21st in defensive SP+, 48th in FPI, and 30th in FEI. If BYU’s second half against Arizona is any indication, BYU is better than just a top 30 defense. A good performance against a solid Colorado State offense should help matters.

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume metrics are a measure of how your team performs against it’s schedule relative to how an average top 25 power rated team would be expected to perform against that schedule. Strength of schedule measures the quality of opponents. Strength of record measures how you perform against those opponents.

SP+: 18

FPI (SOR): 15

FEI: 8

Average: 13.6

BYU’s resume metrics are all over the board because, frankly, it’s too early to care about this metric. Still, BYU is looking pretty good here after a solid multi-score win over a top 30-40 team in Arizona. I would put my money on Arizona rising over the next few weeks and that win only increasing in value.

Conclusion

BYU safety Faletau Satuala against Arizona | BYU Photo

Now the real question: did failing to punch it in on the final drive really cost BYU in the eyes of the public? No. At least not yet. An 11 -point margin was clearly sufficient enough to have BYU jump two really good programs in Texas Tech and USC. BYU has the respect of the voting public. Maybe 35-17 would have looked better for some of the narratives surrounding BYU today, but none of it will really matter if BYU goes out and gets bludgeoned by Notre Dame. In the end, that's going to be about 75% of BYU's case this year just like the Texas Tech games were last year. Just keep controlling games, win by enough, and the rest will sort itself out in October and November. But as things stand today, the Arizona win was sufficient enough to make BYU a playoff team if the season ended today.

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