KenPom Predicts Rivalry Rematch Between BYU and Utah, Updates Projected Win Total

Jan 10, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (2) drives while being defended by BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) during the second half at Jon M. Huntsman Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

On Saturday afternoon, BYU basketball will host rival Utah for a rivalry rematch. The Cougars and the Utes faced off two weeks ago in Salt Lake. BYU won that game 89-84 on a night where the result never felt in doubt, but Utah continued to hang around and stay in the game.

This time around, the home court advantage will favor BYU. The Cougars will need to take care of business against Utah before they take on a four-game gauntlet against Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Houston.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Utah. KenPom gives BYU a 96% chance to win with a projected final score of 92-73.

BYU ranks 14th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Utes rank 114th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 75th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 210th.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• vs Utah: 96% (BYU win probability)
• vs Arizona: 43%
• @ Kansas: 39%
• @ Oklahoma State: 73%
• vs Houston: 54%
• @ Baylor: 64%
• vs Colorado: 92%
• @ Arizona: 19%
• vs Iowa State: 54%
• vs UCF: 85%
• @ West Virginia: 63%
• @ Cincinnati: 67%
• vs Texas Tech: 68%

KenPom predicts BYU will go 8-2-4.8 in its final 13 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 24.2-6.8.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 16 games. With 13 games remaining, BYU could win as many as 29 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 25, 26, or even 27 wins.

• 17 wins: 100%
• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 100%
• 20 wins: 99.9%
• 21 wins: 99.0%
• 22 wins: 95.5%
• 23 wins: 85.7%
• 24 wins: 67.1%
• 25 wins: 42.4%
• 26 wins: 19.9%
• 27 wins: 6.3%
• 28 wins: 1.2%
• 29 wins: 0.1%

A reasonable goal for BYU would be to finish with 25 or 26 wins. That would put BYU at 25-6 or 26-5 on the season and firmly in position to get a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the fourth best odds to win the Big 12.

• Arizona: 56% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 55%
• Iowa State: 9%
• BYU 6%
• Texas Tech 4%
• Kansas 1%