KenPom Predicts Top 15 Matchup Between BYU and Texas Tech

The Cougars hit the road for a ranked matchup at Texas Tech

Jan 14, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) looks on during the second half against the TCU Horned Frogs at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

On Saturday night, no. 11 BYU will take on no. 15 Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Cougars are 4-0 in conference play and winners of 13 consecutive games. Texas Tech is 3-1 in conference play and their only loss was a close road loss at Houston.

For BYU, this will be the biggest test in conference play so far and probably the stiffest test since they played UConn in Boston.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU at Texas Tech. KenPom gives BYU a 48% chance to win with a projected final score of 81-80.

BYU ranks 13th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 8th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders rank 23rd in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 18th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 37th.

BYU's primary advantage in this game will be on the offensive end. Texas Tech has struggled to keep opposing teams below the 80-90 point threshold. Below are point totals that Texas Tech has allowed this season:

• Illinois (81)
• Wake Forest (83)
• Purdue (86)
• Arkansas (93)
• Northern Colorado (90)
• Duke (81)
• Oklahoma State (80)

BYU averages 87.5 points per game.

ESPN BPI believes this game is a true toss-up. BPI gives BYU a 49.6% chance to win this game. Oddsmakers are less bullish on BYU's chances as they favor Texas Tech by 2.5 points in this game.

The Stars Will be Out in Lubbock

Between these two teams, there are five players that average 17 points or more. Texas Tech is led by star big man JT Toppin. Toppin averages 21.3 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. Toppin is a crafty scorer in the paint and will be a challenge for BYU's post defense.

As far as initiating the offense goes, Texas Tech guard Christian Anderson is the engine that makes the offense run. Anderson averages 19.7 points per agme and he averages 7.5 assists per game. He is an effective three-point shooter where he averages 43% from deep.

For BYU, it's all about the big three of Richie Saunders, Rob Wright, and true freshman superstar AJ Dybantsa. Those three average 19.3 points, 17.2 points, and 23.1 points, respectively. BYU's big three average 68% of BYU's total points.

BYU star AJ Dybantsa was under the weather on Wednesday night against TCU. His health will be a storyline to monitor in this game.