3 Key Metrics That Give BYU the Edge Against TCU

On Saturday, no. 10 BYU will travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. The Cougars are looking for their first win in Fort Worth since 2006.

In this article, we will look beyond the score and point to three areas where the advanced metrics give BYU the edge against TCU. Every week in our weekly data run, we identify the five key matchups on both sides of the ball (see the chart below). We will explore the top three areas where the advanced metrics give BYU the edge and what it means for Saturday's matchup.

1. BYU's offense can counter TCU's strength on defense

TCU's defense has been the strength of its team. The Horned Frogs are only allowing 12.5 points per game (14th nationally). While TCU has been one of the best defenses at preventing points, they haven't been as dominant when it comes to preventing yards.

TCU ranks 39th in available yards allowed and 40th in success rate allowed. In other words, TCU's defense has been a bend-don't-break style defense that tightens up in the redzone. The Horned Frogs allow 39% of opposing drives into scoring territory (their own 40 yard-line) which ranks 41st in college football. However, they only allow touchdowns on 40% of drives in scoring territory, good enough for 10th in college football.

Preview: BYU offense against the TCU defense | BYU On SI

BYU's offense should be able to, at least partially, counter the strength of TCU's defense. In non-garbage time, BYU has been perfect in the redzone on offense. The Cougars rank fourth nationally in touchdowns per scoring territory drive.

Said differently, BYU capitalizes on scoring opportunities as well as any offense in college football. TCU is going to allow yards. Once the Cougars are in scoring territory, the Horned Frogs won't be able to prevent touchdowns as well as they have in other games this season.

2. BYU should be able to stay ahead of the chains on offense

BYU is the best offense TCU will have faced this season by a wide margin. Excluding garbage time, BYU ranks first in college football in offensive success rate. The Cougars' rushing attack, in particular, should help them stay ahead of the chains. BYU ranks fourth in stuff rate allowed, meaning the Cougars are rarely stuffed at the line of scrimmage.

TCU, meanwhile, has been below averaged at stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage where they rank 86th nationally. The data suggests BYU's offensive line should be able to generate push and avoid negative plays.

Success rate on offense and defense | BYU On SI

The Horned Frogs have given up yards through the air as well. TCU ranks 50th in pass success rate allowed and the Cougars rank 7th nationally in passing success rate. Whether it's on the ground or through the air, the Cougars should be able to stay ahead of the chains and put themselves in manageable third downs.

3. BYU's defense is going to make TCU drive the length of the field, and so far they have struggled to do that

One of BYU's primary strengths on defense has been preventing explosive plays. The Cougars rank eighth nationally in explosive play rate allowed (run plays of 10 or more yards, pass plays of 15 or more yards).

Explosive play rate allowed by Big 12 defenses | BYU On SI

TCU has relied on explosive pass plays to move the football. The Horned Frogs rank 70th in rushing success rate, so running the ball and moving the chains hasn't been a recipe for success. They make up for their lackluster rushing attack with explosive pass plays where they rank 18th in explosive pass rate. Meanwhile, BYU ranks 24th in explosive pass rate allowed.

The BYU defense will force TCU to methodically move the chains to move the football. So far, the TCU offense has struggled to do that consistently. The Cougars should have their chances to get off the field on third downs.

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