FPI BYU at TCU, Updates Projected Win Total After Bye Week

The Cougars and the Horned Frogs will square off on Saturday and BYU will be favored

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against TCU | BYU Photo

On Saturday, BYU will travel to Forth Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. The Cougars will be looking for their first win in Fort Worth since 2006. The last time BYU played TCU on the road, Josh Hoover dominated the Cougars in his first career start.

This time around, BYU will be a road favorite. ESPN FPI gives BYU a 70.5% chance to beat TCU. BYU opened as a 5.5-point favorite in this game. The line has moved in BYU's favor and the Cougars are now favored by 6.5 points.

FPI Updates Prediction for BYU's 2026 Season

BYU's projected record decreased from 9.0-3.0 to 8.9-3.1 after the bye week. Most notably, BYU's chances to beat Utah have significantly decreased since the preseason. FPI gives BYU just a 34.8% chance to beat Utah.

Below are the game-by-game predictions after the bye week.

• TCU: 70.5% (64.9% in the preseason)
• Iowa State: 84.6% (89.0% in the preseason)
• Notre Dame: 23.6% (24.0% in the preseason)
• UCF: 60.4% (67.7% in the preseason)
• ASU: 85.2% (78.9% in the prseason)
• Utah: 34.8% (58.7% in the preseason)
• Baylor: 77.7% (76.4% in the preseason)
• Kansas: 82.6% (71.9% in the preseason)
• Cincinnati: 80.1% (82.7% in the preseason)

Odds of a Special Season

BYU has delivered on high expectations so far this season. If the Cougars are going to meet preseason expectations and have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, they will need to win 10 or more regular season games. Using FPI win probabilities, there is a 35.5% chance that BYU will win 10 or more regular season games.

However, 9-3 is still the most likely outcome per FPI.

6 wins or more - 99.6%
7 wins or more - 97.3%
8 wins or more - 88.3%
9 wins or more - 66.7%
10 wins or more - 35.5%
11 wins or more - 10.7%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.3%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved two spots in FPI during the bye week. After losses to Georgia and Iowa, Michigan and Oklahoma were downgraded by FPI, paving the way for BYU to climb to 17th nationally. The Cougars are still just behind Texas A&M and Penn State who suffered losses over the weekend.

Utah is now the highest-rated team in the Big 12 after a multi-score road win at Iowa State. The Utes have climbed to 12th nationally in FPI.

• Utah - 12
• Texas Tech - 13
• BYU - 17
• Houston - 27
• Kansas State - 34
• Baylor - 39
• Cincinnati - 42
• Oklahoma State - 43
• UCF - 46
• TCU - 47
• Arizona - 50
• Iowa State - 55
• Arizona State - 57
• West Virginia - 59
• Kansas - 70
• Colorado - 71

Conference Title Hopes

BYU's conference title odds decreased during the bye week. That has less to do with BYU and more to do with Utah and Texas Tech who won games convincingly. That upgraded both Utah's and Tech's FPI rating.

What's more noteworthy is how FPI views this league as a clear three-team race. No other team outside of Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU have better than a 3.6% chance to win the league. FPI says there is an 82% chance that one of those three teams will win the league.

• Utah - 31.9%
• Texas Tech - 30.9%
• BYU - 19.2%
• Houston - 3.6%
• UCF - 2.8%
• Oklahoma State - 2.7%
• Baylor - 2.5%
• Kansas State - 2.3%
• Cincinnati - 1.7%
• ASU - 0.8%
• TCU - 0.7%
• Arizona - 0.5%
• Iowa State - 0.3%
• West Virginia - 0.1%
• Colorado - 0.0%
• Kansas - 0.0%

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU's College Football Playoff odds were downgraded as well, driven by their decreased chances to win the league.

• Utah - 49.2%
• Texas Tech - 48.3%
• BYU - 29.9%
• Houston - 7.4%
• Cincinnati - 5.1%
• Oklahoma State - 4.1%
• Kansas State - 4.0%
• UCF - 3.6%
• Baylor - 3.4%
• Arizona - 1.2%
• ASU - 1.0%
• TCU - 0.7%
• WVU - 0.4%
• Iowa State - 0.3%
• Colorado - 0.1%
• Kansas - 0.0%

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