5 Reasons Why BYU Can Beat Texas Tech

BYU linebacker Jack Kelly against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Make no mistake, Saturday might be the biggest BYU football game in 40 years. When BYU takes the field against no. 8 Texas Tech, it will the first meeting between two top 10 teams in program history. If you don’t have a few pregame jitters, you don’t have a have a heart. Still, if you find yourself doing breathing exercises 48 hours before kick off, we've got you covered. Here are five reasons BYU can beat the Red Raiders.

1. Jay Hill off a bye

Since Jay Hill joined the program in 2023, BYU has allowed more than 21 points once when they have two weeks to prepare for an FBS opponent (8 games). BYU’s defense was running on fumes heading into the bye week with all three starting linebackers dealing with some form of injury. After a mostly clean defensive injury report Wednesday night, this might be the healthiest that BYU’s defense has been in weeks. BYU’s defense has yet to allow more than 27 points in a game this season, and with a full bye week to prepare and get healthy, we like BYU’s chances to keep that going.

2. Texas Tech’s offense is a good matchup for BYU’s defense

BYU cornerback Evan Johnson with an interception returned for a touchdown against ECU | BYU Photo

Texas Tech has a high-flying offense that ranks 3rd in scoring and 12th in yards. While the counting stats favor Texas Tech’s offense over BYU’s defense, the advanced numbers tell a different story. The Red Raider’s rank 29th in offensive EPA per play to BYU’s 16th, while the two are nearly identical in points per drive, yards per play, success rate, and explosive plays. Where BYU holds its biggest advantage over Tech is the ultimate end result of drives. While the Cougars have proven to give up quality drives as of late, they still rank 18th in points allowed off quality drives compared to Texas Tech’s 66th in points per quality drives scored. In laymen’s terms, BYU might let Texas Tech drive on them a few times, but Texas Tech will likely struggle to convert those yards into points.

Over half of Texas Tech’s touchdowns this season have come from explosive plays through the air, with much of that damage being done against zone coverage. BYU’s secondary, therefore, poses a unique challenge. Schematically, BYU blitzes as much as any team in the country and therefore relies on a healthy dose of man coverage. Against man coverage, Texas Tech’s receivers have struggled to get open. Only one Texas Tech receiver ranks in the top third nationally in yards per route run against man coverage, with their second leading receiver Coy Eakin ranking 15th worst.

BYU’s secondary has been nails in man coverage this year, allowing a 51% completion rate for under 4.8 yards per attempt. Corners Evan Johnson and Tre Alexander are allowing a 42% completion rate when targeted in man coverage this season and have allowed only 11 catches this season on 118 combined man coverage snaps. In short, BYU’s secondary should be able to hold against what is an ordinarily explosive passing attack.

3. Behren Morton struggled against the only top 30 defense he’s faced

You may have seen some discussion online about Morton’s splits at home vs. on the road, and to be fair, they are drastic. Morton has recorded a pass efficiency rating of over 200 at home this season compared to 139.3 on the road. That said, the best defense Morton has played at home this season is Kansas who ranks 90th in FPI’s defensive efficiency. BYU ranks 13th in that metric. Morton has only played one game against a top 30 defense (Utah), and outside of a 71-yard catch and run in the first quarter, Morton averaged 3.8 yards per attempt with no touchdowns and two interceptions in that game.

BYU generated 7 sacks and a 40% pressure rate on 2 of the top 7 lines in the country https://t.co/UCAtCI9Zfq

— Joe Wheat (@joewheat27) November 6, 2025

What Utah truly revealed about Morton was his unease under pressure. The Utes pressured Morton on nearly half of his dropbacks leading to a 4.8 yard per attempt average and an interception. This season, Morton ranks 80th nationally in passer rating when pressured compared to 10th nationally from a clean pocket. Texas Tech has done a nice job keeping their QB clean this season, with Morton facing pressure just 25% of the time. That said, BYU’s pass rush is rapidly improving, generating pressure on 40% of drop backs over the last 3 games with 7 combined sacks against 2 of the top 7 offensive lines in the Country per PFSN. For BYU to hold Morton in check, that trend will need to continue Saturday.

4. BYU’s offensive line held up against an equally disruptive Utah defensive line

By far the most imposing aspect of this Texas Tech team is their pass rush. David Bailey and Romello Height are monsters off the edge with 99 pressures and 17 sacks between them. This season, Tech ranks 12th nationally in sacks and tied for 1st in pressures. The team they are tied with? Utah. Utah generates pressures on 46% of drop backs but only generated pressure on 38% of snaps against BYU. Evidently, BYU has proved to be far more formidable in pass blocking than they get credit for. BYU is the 23rd best pass blocking unit according to PFF and has been credited with just 3 sacks allowed and 45 total pressures on 253 pass blocking snaps.

BYU’s path to victory on offense really comes down to one question. Can they block Texas Tech? If Tech’s pass rush really is in the same class as Utah’s, the answer is probably.

5. Bear Bachmeier is playing at too high a level to be ignored

He might be a true freshman, but Bear Bachmeier is playing like a top 15 quarterback in the country right now. He ranks 17th in QBR, 13th in EPA per rush, and 13th in EPA per pass among all quarterbacks nationally. Most importantly, Bachmeier is better than almost anyone at avoiding the negative plays. Bachmeier is in the 80th percentile in expected points lost to turnovers and 90th percentile in sack rate. For BYU to have a chance, they need its quarterback to play clean football and make plays in crunch time. There may not be a QB better at doing that right now than BYU’s.

Bachmeier also poses a matchup challenge for Texas Tech given their nearly 80% zone coverage rate. Against zone coverage, Bachmeier is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt on a 68% completion rate. It helps that his favorite targets Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston both rank in the 93rd percentile in yards per route run against zone coverage. Should these trends hold, Bear will have opportunities to create a few explosive plays through the air.